Heading into the season, the Baltimore Ravens were seen as one of the AFC’s top contenders, alongside the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills. But a difficult schedule, struggles on defense, as well as injuries on that side of the ball and to quarterback Lamar Jackson have the Ravens staring at 1-5, with a long road ahead if they want to secure a postseason berth.

Despite the horrid start, however, the Ravens are very much alive in the AFC playoff race. In fact, according to our NFL Playoff Simulator, they still have a 40 percent chance to make the playoffs and a 35 percent chance to win the AFC North.

So what’s the path to the playoffs? It starts, first and foremost, with getting Jackson healthy.

He has been a limited practice participant twice this week, so it seems he has a shot to play this weekend against the Chicago Bears, but there is still some uncertainty. How close to 100 percent will he be if he does suit up? Will he be healthy enough to make an impact? We won’t have answers to those questions until Sunday, but the Ravens need to know because they have almost no room for error.

With Jackson out the past two games, the Ravens have scored 13 total points and posted an EPA per play of -0.29, worst in the NFL. Compare that to their numbers with Jackson in the lineup this season: 32.8 points per game and 0.12 EPA per play (fifth best).

Even with Jackson on the field, though, the Ravens have just a 1-3 record this season, mostly because their defense has been horrendous. While riddled with injuries, the Ravens rank 29th in defensive EPA per play (0.12) and 30th in defensive success rate. Needless to say that if Jackson isn’t in the lineup, any potential playoff run is dead on arrival unless the defense shows significant improvement.

But, if Jackson does return, the path is certainly there. After they played the league’s toughest schedule through the first seven weeks of the season, my model shows the Ravens with the third-easiest remaining schedule remaining, including five divisional games. Right now, my model projects them to go 7-4 the rest of the way (provided they have Jackson), which would get them to 8-9 — probably not good enough to reach the playoffs.

If they get to nine wins, though, they’d likely be looking at a coin flip.

How likely would it be for them to make the postseason at the point? Well, you can plug those results into our NFL Playoff Simulator (powered by my NFL projection model) and see how the Ravens’ playoff or AFC North odds would change.

For instance, I mentioned those all-important divisional games the Ravens have remaining. Let’s say they sweep those, going 5-0. Doing so would give Baltimore an 89 percent chance to reach the playoffs and an 84 percent chance to win the North.

A loss in Week 18 at Pittsburgh, and those numbers would plunge to 57 and 46 percent, respectively. Finish 0-2 against the Steelers this season? The Ravens’ playoff odds would drop all the way to 13 percent and their AFC North odds to 5 percent.

Obviously, the divisional games are huge — the most important matchups left for the Ravens’ playoff hopes. Those intra-division games always carry more weight. Take, for example, the Cincinnati Bengals’ upset of the Pittsburgh Steelers last Thursday night. The Ravens’ playoff odds increased by 6 percent based on the result of that lone game. Were the Green Bay Packers to beat the Steelers and the Ravens to beat the Bears this week, Baltimore’s odds would shoot up to 49 percent. (Again, the possibilities are almost endless with our NFL Playoff Simulator — you can pick the winner of every remaining regular-season game.)

I mentioned the uncertainty surrounding Jackson, and it’s no guarantee he laces up the cleats this weekend. Would a loss mark the end of Baltimore’s hopes? Well, no, not necessarily.

The Ravens’ playoff odds still would be at 28 percent, despite a 1-6 start. In fact, they’d still have an 8 percent chance to reach the postseason with losses in their next three games, per our Playoff Simulator. In both of those scenarios, were they then to sweep their remaining divisional games, they would find themselves at 78 percent to make the playoffs (and 44 percent to win the division).

That seems crazy — even I find it hard to believe — but the schedule is that favorable the rest of the way.

All of these scenarios are unlikely. Of course they are — we’re talking about a 1-5 team making the playoffs. Still, the Ravens are getting healthier. On top of Jackson’s potential return, star linebacker Roquan Smith looks to be on track to play this weekend, as well, which would help solidify a banged-up defense that can’t be much worse than it’s been.

The Ravens are on life support, but getting a two-time MVP back under center in time to face one of the league’s softest schedules would be a great way to turn the page on a disastrous start.