Ernie Clement (R) was one of MLB’s best at making contact; the Dodgers were the best at whiffing batters. (Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)
The 2025 World Series, which finally starts tonight in Toronto, is a study in contrasts in many regards. In the biggest-picture view, it’s the U.S. versus Canada — and all of the feelings that entails — or Shohei Ohtani’s current team against the one he spurned in 2023. But it’s also the star power, rotation riches and salary of the Dodgers as big favorites against the togetherness and resilience of the underdog Blue Jays. Plus, it’s an L.A. team that’s more rested and experienced facing a Toronto club that’s been hotter at the plate this postseason — and has outscored its opponents by more overall in the playoffs.
But the most hyped-up referendum in the series, at least among the wonkier corners of the MLB punditariat, has been the strength-on-strength matchup between the Dodgers’ strikeout pitching — with the league’s No. 1 ranked K rate on the mound, 13 percent better than league average during the regular season — and the Blue Jays’ contact hitting — with the league’s lowest K rate at the plate, 21 percent better than league average during the regular season.
It’s the classic case of the unstoppable force versus the immovable object (or something like that). So who tends to prevail when these strengths collide in the Fall Classic?
First things first, let’s quantify where this battle ranks among the biggest battles of contact-rate will in the World Series since the 1994 strike. Here are the matchups with the biggest differentials like the one we have this year — great contact hitting versus great strikeout pitching — in FanGraphs’ “plus” stats for strikeout rate at the plate for an offense and on the mound for a pitching staff during the regular season in question: