With five rounds of the Formula 1 season remaining, it might be worth forgetting everything you’ve learnt about this season.
The form guide is useless. Red Bull Racing’s late surge has displaced McLaren as the undisputed top dog of F1 and has totally up-ended long-held assumptions about who is able to win the world championship this year.
Max Verstappen has won three of the last four grands prix and is the form man of the competitions. Title leader Oscar Piastri is on the worst run of results of the season. Lando Norris is quietly rising the occasion.
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Can anything break this championship open as we hurtle towards the finale?
CAN PIASTRI BOUNCE BACK?
Oscar Piastri is experiencing the roughest run of results of his championship-contending campaign.
Prior to him crashing out of the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, he had scored at least a point for 42 consecutive rounds.
Prior to the Singapore Grand Prix, he hadn’t gone consecutive races off the podium.
Prior to the United States Grand Prix, he hadn’t finished a dry race lower than fourth.
All of that has come undone in this wretched run between Baku and Austin. He’s scored 22 points in total in that time and has seen his title lead slashed to 14 points ahead of Lando Norris and 40 points ahead of the momentum-fuelled Max Verstappen.
There’s never a good time to experience a podium drought, but there are fewer worse times than at the run-in for the Formula 1 world championship.
Austin was the nadir, with the Australian never looking on the pace on his way to a quiet fifth place.
It’s the same place he finished the race last year before turning in eighth in Mexico City, a long way behind Norris.
Of course Piastri started that race a lowly 17th, but that only underlines his troublesome form at this North American double-header.
Part of Piastri’s problem appears to be a certain discomfort with low-grip surfaces, particularly when tyre degradation is still high. Austin’s bumpy, patchwork surface certainly matches that description after baking in the afternoon Texas sunshine.
Conditions are similar in Mexico City.
While the ambient temperature is usually much lower, the thinner atmosphere at 2.5 kilometres above sea level means the track surface heats up much more quickly when the sun is out. The tarmac regularly returns readings over 50°C despite a mild air temperature.
The situation is exacerbated by the thinner air robbing cars of downforce, which means more sliding and more overheating for the tyres.
It’s a theory that might explain why this part of the year has historically been difficult for Piastri.
The Australian, however, says post-race analysis of his Austin difficulty put them down to being specific to the circuit.
“I think it’s very COTA-specific,” he said. “The analysis we’ve done has highlighted that there were a lot of things specific to Austin, so I’m not really concerned that those problems will still persist.
“Obviously I’m hoping that this weekend is a bit better.”
Given the tightening title picture, a better result is imperative.
PIT TALK PODCAST: Max Verstappen has taken 64 points out of Oscar Piastri’s title lead in just four rounds on a trajectory that would have him take the title lead before the end of the season. The Dutchman has all the momentum. Can McLaren hit back to ensure the championship double?
WILL VERSTAPPEN KEEP CLOSING?
Even at 40 points down, you’ll struggle to find anyone in the paddock who doesn’t believe Verstappen is in with a chance after his dominant victory last weekend.
According to Red Bull motorsport adviser Helmut Marko, it’s a rebound in belief not just among punters and pundits but for the Dutchman too.
“Max at one stage when we were not competitive I would say he lost a little bit of interest,” he told Sky Sports.
“He was more interested in GT racing, so to keep him in a good mood I was talking about Nürburgring and things like that.
“But now that the car is working, and (after) his success at the Nürburgring I would say 0.2 seconds just came from him because he’s really motivated, he’s enjoying. You don’t hear him shouting, he’s smiling. That’s what you need.”
Certainly Marko’s assessment tallies with what we’ve seen on track: a renewed vigour and determination from Verstappen, who’s been almost unbeatable over the last four weekends.
The Dutchman, however, disputes that characterisation.
“I don’t (agree),” he said, per Autosport. “Of course it’s more enjoyable coming to the race weekends like this than knowing that you don’t have a chance to win, but I know for myself that when I sit in the car I will always try to maximise everything that I have and I give it everything.
“There’s nothing really that has changed in terms of how professionally I approach my race weekends.”
What he doesn’t deny, however, is feeling new sensations as his title defence suddenly reignites.
To win the title from here, Verstappen must be flawless. If he were to win every remaining and grand prix and sprint, he would gain only 37 of the necessary 40 points, though this assumes Piastri finishes second to him each time. With Norris such a close match, it’s not a stretch to say Verstappen’s title destiny is just about in his own hands.
“I’ve won championships very late, very early; now this one is very different because I think for most of the season it was a lot harder for us,” he said. “To be honest with you, to still be in this fight is very surprising.
“We need to be perfect, but for me it’s just positive pressure.
“Every race that you do, I know until the end we can’t afford any bad luck or mistakes, but this team I think has shown in the past that normally we perform really well under pressure anyway, and that’s what we’ll try to do until the end.”
There couldn’t be a better follow-up race to Verstappen’s roaring Austin success than the Mexico City Grand Prix. No driver in Formula 1 history has won more race in Mexico than Verstappen, who’s claimed five victories at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez.
They include wins in 2017 and 2018, when the Red Bull Racing car was a distant third quickest on the grid, as well as in 2021, when victory opened enough of a buffer to Lewis Hamilton to survive the Briton’s fast finish and claim the title.
If history is any guide, Verstappen will fly out of Mexico City feeling a whole lot more of that positive pressure — and with Piastri and Norris under more of the negative kind.
‘F***** idiot!’ – Sainz & Kimi clash | 00:55
CAN TSUNODA SAVE HIS SKIN BY RESCUING THE DRIVERS TITLE?
Could the fate of the drivers championship rest with a man who’s scored just 28 points for the entire season?
Yuki Tsunoda thinks it could.
Red Bull Racing is widely tipped to replace the underperforming Tsunoda with Isack Hadjar next year, with a decision possible as early as next week.
The Japanese star has scored just 28 points for the year and only 25 at Red Bull Racing as he’s struggled to adapt to the car, albeit there are some signs of improvement — 18 of those points have been won in three of the last five weekends.
They’re paltry figures relative to Verstappen’s tally, but they could make the difference in a title race that could come down to single-digit margins.
“There is still potential to be in P2 in the teams championship, and there’s still potential for Max to win the world championship, so I’ll try to be in front of these guys and help as much as possible,” he said, tying support of Verstappen’s title bid to his future at the team.
“It’s been a crucial moment as a team and also for the championship, especially with my teammate, so [it’s about] how much I can support that.
“There is the potential to be P2 in the teams championship, which is very good, and what I scored in Austin was obviously a good step.
“I’m going to have to do more, or it’s basically more of the same and just keep scoring every race — especially the last few years other Red Bull drivers struggled with.
“What I have to do [to keep my seat] is quite clear.”
Tsunoda suggested he could help both through sacrificing practice time to aid Verstappen on set-up as well as through strategy in the races.
“We’re still challenging to discover a lot of new set-ups that try to suit or maximise the current package, and that’s what we are doing very well this year so far,” he explained.
“Being as high as possible will create more opportunity to play around with the strategy in favour of the team … [for example] to extend the stint depending on the situation.
“Strategies that, if I can help Max to have a higher chance to be P1 or make our competitors’ life more difficult. That’s kind of the role I understand.
“But also to do that, obviously, you have to be consistently performing well, as I did in the Austin sprint race. That’s what I have to do more in the short run.”
There’s no doubt Verstappen’s title bid would be aided by having his teammate available to pinch points from McLaren.
It’s hardly unprecedented. Pérez did exactly that for Verstappen in 2021, a job that culminated in the Mexican critically slowing down Lewis Hamilton such that the Briton couldn’t make a pit stop at the final safety car, precipitating a change in the lead and winning the Dutchman the championship.
That performance in particular earnt Pérez the goodwill that extended his stay at Red Bull Racing longer than most anticipated.
But Tsunoda on race pace is way off where Pérez was on his best days. If he can improve to that level, he may just find his career prolonged.
‘Far too close’ – Oscar calls for parity | 03:25
CAN KEY ROOKIES PERFORM ON THE BIG STAGE?
Mexico City, late in the season, has become a popular destination for teams to burn one of their four required rookie outings.
Teams tend not to have any upgrades to trial this weekend — especially this year, with 2026 cars now the focus — while Mexico is one of the few non-sprint weekends in the final months of the year.
This is also a relatively low-risk circuit at which to hand a car to an unproven driver as a permanent track featuring few high-speed corners.
As a result, nine of the 10 teams will field a rookie driver in FP1 this weekend, a couple of whom will garner more attention than others.
Arvid Lindblad will get a spin in Verstpapen’s Red Bull Racing car in the build-up to what could be the announcement of his promotion to Formula 1 next season.
Lindblad has been highly rated in the Red Bull program for some time and has long been considered a likely Racing Bulls driver in 2026.
But the Briton has underwhelmed in the later stages of his maiden Formula 2 campaign. He’s scored points only four times in the 12 races since his last win in Barcelona, which remains his only feature win of the season.
A good showing in FP1 could seal the deal.
The other key rookie is Paul Aron, who will substitute Pierre Gasly at Alpine.
Alpine de facto principal Flavio Briatore says the only choices being considered for Gasly’s 2026 partner are incumbent Franco Colapinto — still scoreless after 13 rounds in the car — and junior driver Aron.
It’s unclear how serious the team is on alternatives to the cashed-up Colapinto, but if it is looking elsewhere, this could be Aron’s big shot to state his case.
Other junior drivers on the entry list include Mercedes’s Frederik Vesti, who will stand in for George Russell, Williams’s Luke Browning, who will replace Carlos Sainz, Aston Martin’s Jak Crawford, who will replace Lance Stroll, and Racing Bulls’s Ayumu Iwasa, who will stand in for Liam Lawson.
Also on track will be McLaren IndyCar star Pato O’Ward, who will sub for Lando Norris, long-time Ferrari development driver Antonio Fuoco, who will replace Lewis Hamilton, and Toyota development driver Ryo Hirakawa, who will take over from Oliver Bearman at Haas.
Sauber is the only team who won’t field a junior driver. The Swiss squad has already fielded Alpine’s Aron twice this year, and the rules allow debutants to count towards the rule, meaning Gabriel Bortoleto’s first two practice sessions acquitted the other two required rookie sessions.