On a light day for hockey, I had planned to go through some anomalies so far and a focal point of that was going to be Brock Faber and his pointless nine games. But he had to spoil a bit of that by picking up three points on Sunday. Nonetheless, I still have some thoughts on him. He’s a great defensemen in the higher echelon, no question. But his problem in fantasy hockey is that he’s ‘too’ good. At both ends of the ice. I remember seeing the same thing with Alex Pietrangelo, who was usually 45-point player who could have been a 55-point player were it not for Kevin Shattenkirk. Shattenkirk was more one-dimensional, so he grabbed 30-40 seconds more PP time with the better unit, and the better zone starts, while Pietrangelo faced the tougher minutes and killed penalties. Pietrangelo had a couple of 54-point seasons, when Shattenkirk was hurt or the year after Shattenkirk was traded. He even had a 51-point season with Shattenkirk playing the full year, so you can imagine how well he would have done had he been given the offensive opportunities that Shattenkirk had. But when you’re so good that you can thrive at any task, and the team has a guy who thrives only on offense – then you’re stuck in the defensive role. And that’s where we are with Faber. Zeev Buium is getting all the PP minutes. Faber is getting all the PK minutes. At least in the case of Pietrangelo, he still got PP minutes, albeit on the second unit. With Faber, he’s barely getting third-unit scraps.
Sunday, Faber got 2:02 PPTOI, the first time he’s had more than 30 seconds all year. The result was two PPPts. Why did he suddenly get put on the second unit? Jared Spurgeon is still the guy running the top unit, but usually Buium runs the second unit. But the Wild coach John Hynes moved away from the 4F-1D (Buium) setup and moved to 3F-2D for that unit, with Buium paired with Faber. It made their second unit more successful and it looks like they earned another look there. Together.
Regardless, Faber is what he is. A lesser Pietrangelo. He’ll get his 35 to 40 points, eventually eking that up to 45. And some time over the next few years, when or if Buium spends extended time on the IR, Faber will pop for 50 or 55. If only we had a way of knowing when that will happen so we can draft accordingly.
On a somewhat related note, Jonas Brodin, Faber’s partner at ES, is struggling this year. He had a great game on Saturday, which factored into Faber picking up a point, but prior to that, he’s actually been a bit of a drag on Faber’s effectiveness. He’s 32, so I wonder if his decline is starting.
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A quick run-through on the top (and bottom) early trends, and my thoughts on sustainability:
On pace for: 146 points
The metrics say: He’ll slow, with his pace bringing him in at around 115-120 over a full season. His 5on5 S% of 14.5%, his high PPIPP and his very high %PP indicate a slowdown.
End result: The term “over a full season” doesn’t apply to Eichel. He’s coming off a 77-game season, which is promising, but generally speaking you should assume closer to 70-73 games, which puts him in closer to 105 points. The presence of Mitch Marner nullifies some of the potential metrics drag.
On pace for: 131 points
The metrics say: Weird thing – when I click to see his metrics, it just has a laughing sound on my PC. In all seriousness, his 5on5 S% is extremely high for what he usually comes in at (14.4% instead of around 10%, or even below 9% the last two seasons). His expected goals sits at 6.5 when he’s on the ice at ES, but the actual goals are 11. His S% of 19.4% is high. His career average is 13.8%, which is higher than most, but 19.4 is nutty. His shot volume is way up, too. I like Utah a lot and have said multiple times that the team this year is underrated (and to pick up and value Karel Vejmelka). That second line is huge (thanks to JJ Peterka) and it’s making the first line better. But not that much better.
End result: Schmaltz will still have himself a career year, which was set last year at 63 points. I think he gets over 70 with a reasonable chance at 80.
On pace for: 131 points, 40 on the PP.
The metrics say: A big decline at ES and small decline on the PP. His 15.6% 5on5 S% nearly doubles what he usually sees, and is most definitely a career high. It’s very early in the season so this number is out of whack for a lot of players.
End result: Much of this depends on the health of Anthony Mantha. Right now, that line is like a modern-day Pittsburgh version of the Legion of Doom. Each member is at least 6-5, with Justin Brazeau at 6-6 and 232 pounds. How do you stop them? And if their showing this kind of chemistry with Malkin, that’s just what the doctor ordered. Not since James Neal has he had someone (let alone two!) as such a nice fit. So far. It’s early. Mantha is one of the most fragile players in the entire league. In fact, I would submit that he is the most fragile player. Him getting hurt would change everything. It would probably stop Brazeau’s nice production in its tracks. Basically, if Mantha can somehow play even 75 games (don’t hold your breath), I think Malkin will at least match what he did three years ago (83 points). If Mantha plays 50-70 (the more likely scenario), that pushes Malkin down into the high-60s. If Mantha plays less than 50 (also a likely scenario), Malkin will slow to the low-60s. Brazeau, who has over a point-per-game so far, will see similar declines based on the health of his line. His career high is just 22 points, but he’s a huge player and they generally take until they are in their mid-to-late 20s to break out. His fortunes are 100% tied to his talented linemates.
On pace for: 137 points, 48 on the PP
The metrics say: His shot volume is down, but his S% is way up (25%). His 5on5 S% of 14.5% is high, but much of that is obviously his own shooting. He’s opening my eyes to his upside (higher than I thought – I am starting to reevaluate my stance that he is not better than Connor Bedard), but this year he’s not getting 137 points.
End result: Last year he was consistent throughout the season, each quarter producing at a similar rate. No big spikes and no big slumps. But 15 points in nine games this year has to be a spike, no? He’s on pace for about 49 goals and 88 assists. He’s going to be a 30-goal scorer this year, but will he make it to 40? I wouldn’t bet against it. But I’ll say 32-35 is more reasonable, a 10-goal gain from last year. I think that not only will he crack 80 points for the first time, but I say he reaches 90 if he plays the full season.
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On pace for: 0 points
The metrics say: Surprisingly, at even strength, they only indicate a slight increase. So that’s not great news. But the PP metrics indicate quite an unlucky gap so there’s that. His shot volume is way down, his ice time is down, his PP time is about the same. The metrics indicate that he’ll come in around 40 points. Which is not the news any of us wanted to hear.
End result: I think his line alongside Logan Stankoven and Jackson Blake drives a lot of possession. But Taylor Hall gets time on that line too, either replacing Blake or replacing Svechnikov. Possession-wise, the line is best without Hall, though it’s still quite good with Hall – and that’s a testament to Stankoven and Blake. I do admire a coach who sticks to his lines for this long, even when the production isn’t happening. I don’t think this line is going to take off this year. I like Stankoven’s upside more than most, but he’s still a full year away from his production spike and for now, his lower totals will pull down Svechnikov’s at even strength. All that being said, Svechnikov’s solid postseason numbers (12 in 15) playing mostly with Stankoven, tells me not to give up on him. But you’re probably going to see just a 50-point year before his line (if it stays together) sees a bump.
On pace for: 25 points
The metrics say: He has seen terrible puck luck, but at the same time it also points to a serious reduction in PP time and defensively he is a possession monster, leading the Sens in Corsi-For% relative. But the key for fantasy owners is the PP part. That, and the fact that he has been taken off the top line. He was a fantasy hockey darling all summer long because of that seemingly ironclad top-line spot. I was never sold. I think he’s a third liner who has been miscast as a top-sixer because with San Jose they didn’t have any other options. He had a two-point game Monday and late in the third period he did see time with Tim Stutzle, but his late goal was on the second PP unit, so not enough to get your hopes up.
End result: The lack of PP time will push him below 40 points. The line demotion, if it lasts, could push him down to 30. If he can get back on there and (this time) click – maybe he can eke things up to 45. But without that top PP unit, he’s capped there.
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I wanted to dig into a few prospects who are struggling in their first 7-10 games but I’ll leave that one for my next Ramblings. ICYMI on X, besides today – I’ll be covering Ramblings for Saturday and Sunday as well. And more news: I have taken the Ramblings for a week from tomorrow. That’s November 5, which will be exactly 20 years since I registered the domain name dear to our hearts: DobberHockey.com.
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Filip Hallander was moved to the Sidney Crosby line in Rickard Rakell‘s absence. Rakell, as you know, underwent surgery and is out until probably the New Year. The line did well, with eight shots-for versus two against, though chances were just 11-10. Crosby and Bryan Rust had three points each, so they did very well with Hallander there, even Hallander wasn’t really in on the goals (he had one assist). A Penguins’ second-round pick who is in his prime at 25, and who finished second in SHL scoring last year, Hallander is a player worth watching these next couple of games. In fact, if you can spare the transaction, he’s worth grabbing for your bench to wait and see how he does here.
He doesn’t have the greatest upside, but Parker Wotherspoon is seriously clicking along side his D partner Erik Karlsson. No PP time and not know for his Hits, Wotherspoon already has five points and 16 BLKS. He is the defensive conscience of that pairing and the surge in ice time (over 21 minutes per game) could see him have an Ryan Graves-like impact on fantasy hockey. Graves, if you recall, was also a prospect who had faded and we had given up on, and they he paired with Cale Makar and produced at a 31-point pace and had 150 BLKS. Wotherspoon is 28 though, and a good six years past us giving up on him as a prospect. Still, write off players all you want, but chemistry is chemistry and it can give brief spurts of value. The new coaching in Pittsburgh seems to be changing everything there.
Funny how Graves is the example, when the team initially signed Graves to hopefully find chemistry with Kris Letang, which didn’t happen. Wotherspoon pretty much took his job.
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Can Doug Armstrong put Jordan Binnington on Team Canada when Binnington has a 0.872 SV% and a losing record while Logan Thompson is 5-1-0 and 0.937? Can Armstrong not put him on, when he did so well at the Four Nations? What would you do?
Enough with the Logan Thompson lack-of-experience stuff. He’s 92-39-17, 2.57 and 0.912 in his career, and 7-5-2, 0.918 in the playoffs with a QS% of 70! His body of work is enough.
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Anyway, I brought up Binnington because Joel Hofer is having a tough start to his season and he coughed up another five goals Monday. Tough to own Blues’ goaltending right now.
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Good on Jeremy Swayman for getting his money and locking in while his value was high. After last year and this start, he is showing he’s barely a $3M goalie let alone a $10M goalie (salary – $8.25 AAV).
Drake Batherson picked up three points on Monday, to give him 10 in seven games in what is a hot start for him. That’s back-to-back three-point games for him. Don’t forget last season he started with 12 points in nine games. So hot starts seem to be his forte now.
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