iStockphoto / © Rob Schumacher / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images/Photoraidz/Jonah_H
As a high handicapper myself, I have always said one facet of the game of golf that always keeps me coming back is how despite being a mediocre golfer I still have the ability to feel like Tiger Woods on any given swing. While I might shoot 85-95 over the course of 18 holes, I can still flush the ball every so often and know what the game of should feel like versus what I’m doing out there.
This brings me to my next point: dudes love debating nonsense on the golf course. I’m talking about debates like ‘could you work a walk off an MLB pitcher’ or ‘could you make a birdie on a PGA Tour course?’ That inevitably led to a question posted on X (formerly Twitter) years ago which asked the following: you have to play against Tiger Woods in a 72-hole match, could you beat him on a single hole?
Could You Beat Tiger Woods On A Single Hole Of A 72-Hole Match?
The original question was posted on X by @BullandBaird (real name Lou Stagner). He basically asked his followers if they’d take $1 million, or they could play Tiger Woods in a 72-hole match, if they win one single hole they get $100 million, but if they tie or lose all 72 holes they go to jail for one year.
We have all seen questions like these posed a million times, right? Well, one man thought longer and harder about the hypothetical question than most and then he dove into the numbers.
For this thought experiment, he used a 10-index. For context, a 10-index is expected to shoot around 80 on an average 18-hole, par-72 golf course…. I wasn’t sure what the best way to share all of these posts from Lou Stanger were so be prepared for a lot of X embeds below with explanations in between. Now let’s get started:
First, let’s look at prime Tiger.
These numbers are from his 2000 season.
(20 events played, 9 wins, 17 top 10s)
They show what percent of the time he made each score. pic.twitter.com/ZFiYIhToog
— Lou Stagner (Golf Stat Pro) (@LouStagner) October 27, 2025
Here is what the same data looks like for the typical 10 index.
This is how they score playing “regular” golf.
(Data from @ArccosGolf – DATALOU15 saves 15%) pic.twitter.com/kugqjZlGjg
— Lou Stagner (Golf Stat Pro) (@LouStagner) October 27, 2025
As you can see in those charts above. Tiger Woods in his prime was recording an eagle on 6.42% of the par-5s he played while a 10 index will record an eagle on about 0.33% of the par-5s they play. Tiger would double bogey par-4’s 1.11% of the time while a 10 index faces double bogey 19.22% of the time on par-4s.
Not great! He then factors in the difficulty of golf courses set up for the PGA Tour, this finds that a 10 indext golfer would, on average, shoot 96 on a par-72.
The numbers above would give the 10 index a scoring average of about 96 on a par 72.
Let’s do a back-of-the-napkin check on the 96 scoring average:
A ten index would get 17 strokes on a par 72 that has a course rating of 76 and a slope of 145. ***
At every skill level,…
— Lou Stagner (Golf Stat Pro) (@LouStagner) October 27, 2025
Here’s Where The Math Gets Fun… The Odds You Could Beat Tiger!
Now to save some screen real estate I will include some screenshots of tweets bunched together so you can see all of the math laid out. Let’s dive into it:
If none of that made sense, don’t fret, he will tell you the answers in the next two screenshots. Because that’s what you are really here for, right?
The Answers!
While he cannot make the decision for you, he can give you the odds.
The odds that a 10-index would beat Tiger Woods on a single hole of golf over the course of a 72-hole match are 68.8%. Would you take it?
The chance to earn $100 million at a 68.8% chance to beat Tiger Woods on a single hole is pretty enticing. But this is prime Tiger Woods we are talking about.
Those are his scoring odds, not his match play odds.
Prime Tiger Woods, 2000s era Tiger, would stare you in the eyes and suck your soul out of your chest and you would inevitably lose 72 straight holes and then spend a year in jail but when you were behind bars you would at least have a fun story about how you got there, right?