Topline
Americans are expressing lowered opinions about the U.S. economy as worries persist about a declining job market and rising prices, according to survey results released Tuesday by the Conference Board think tank, though consumers are now citing the government shutdown as a “key concern.”
Recent surveys suggest Americans have grown increasingly concerned about inflation, rising prices and a cooled labor market.
Getty ImagesKey Facts
The Conference Board’s confidence index—a measurement of consumers’ views on the U.S. economy—fell to 94.6 in October from 95.6 in August, down from a 100-point baseline set in 1986 and the lowest reading since April.
The reading comes just above Wall Street’s projections of 94.2, according to FactSet.
A measurement of consumers’ expectations for the economy over the next six months fell to 71.5 in October, the lowest level since June, despite a metric of present conditions increasing slightly from 127.5 to 129.3.
Metrics around the labor market remained low after ticking up for the first time since December 2024: About 18.4% of consumers said jobs were “hard to get,” while 27.8% said jobs were “plentiful,” up from 18.2% and 26.9% in September, respectively.
Government Shutdown Emerges As Economic Concern
Stephanie Guichard, a senior economist at the Conference Board, said in a statement that consumers appeared to be “a bit more pessimistic” about future job availability and job conditions. Write-in comments from respondents remained “mostly negative overall,” but less so than in previous months, Guichard said, noting references to U.S. politics rose “notably,” with the ongoing government shutdown mentioned “multiple times as a key concern.” Rising prices and inflation, however, “continued to be the main topic influencing consumers’ views of the economy,” Guichard said. A survey on consumer sentiment released last week from the University of Michigan found “little evidence” the shutdown had deteriorated economic views.
What To Watch For
The Federal Reserve will conclude its policymaking meeting on Wednesday, and investors are trading in 96.7% odds the central bank will lower interest rates by another 25-basis points to between 3.75% and 4%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. During its September meeting, policymakers voted in favor of reducing rates to between 4% and 4.25% while debating how many additional rate cuts were necessary through the end of the year, with some arguing for two more cuts by December.
Key Background
Economic optimism has fallen among Americans in recent months, as surveyed consumers have expressed concerns about President Donald Trump’s tariffs, inflation and a declining labor market. The University of Michigan reported consumers are “frustrated by the persistence of high prices,” with many indicating their personal finances had deteriorated as a result. The government shutdown, which reached a duration of 28 days as of Tuesday, has yet to be cited as a concern among Americans about the economy, however. Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan’s survey, has said multiple times there was no evidence the shutdown lowered economic views, suggesting consumers “perceive few material changes” in economic circumstances from September to October.
Further ReadingForbesEconomic Confidence Hits Five-Month Low: Consumers ‘Frustrated’ With High PricesBy Ty Roush