The 2025 ATP season is officially into its final weeks, with most of the Tour now looking to set up training blocks and finish the year strong to carry momentum into next season. But this is not the case for everyone. For tennis’s true elite, it’s time to prepare for the ATP Finals.
On Thursday, Aussie Alex de Minaur secured his spot in the season-ending championships, becoming the seventh player to do so. With one place still up for grabs this deep into the season, here are all the possible outcomes for the field heading to Turin in November.
Players Already Qualified
Carlos Alcaraz’s early exit in Paris might have opened the door for Jannik Sinner to regain the World No.1 ranking, but both of the two best players in the world were confirmed for this event months ago.
Alexander Zverev has had arguably his most inconsistent season since becoming a top player, yet his sheer volume of tournaments played has still kept him inside the top three. Novak Djokovic, on the other hand, has maintained a minimal schedule but still finds himself qualified for a record 18th time at the ATP Finals.
A talented American duo joins these four players. Taylor Fritz has backed up his impressive 2024 campaign, while Ben Shelton has firmly established himself among the game’s elite despite missing key tournaments due to a shoulder injury. And as mentioned earlier, Alex de Minaur has now secured his second career Top 8 finish and will head to Turin once again.
The Race for the Final Spot
This leaves just one available position, and remarkably, with only a few weeks left in the season, four players still have a mathematical chance to claim it. Let’s break down their respective cases.
Lorenzo Musetti
At the end of the clay season, the Italian looked like a lock to qualify for Turin. However, an injury-plagued grass swing and a string of poor performances on hard courts have left his place in real jeopardy.
As things stand, he is still No.8 in the Race, but his early defeat in Paris to fellow countryman Lorenzo Sonego means that his fate is no longer in his own hands. Multiple players still alive in the Rolex Paris Masters can overtake him with deep runs.
Felix Auger-Aliassime
It has been a true resurgence season for the Canadian since his semifinal run at the US Open. He capitalized on that result with a solid hard-court swing afterward and now finds himself just a couple of wins away from qualifying for the Finals.
Currently ranked ninth in the Race, a final appearance in Paris could see him overtake Lorenzo Musetti and head to Turin as a direct qualifier rather than an alternate. Being on the opposite side of the draw from Jannik Sinner helps his chances–provided he remains fit, as fatigue could be a factor given his recent busy schedule.
Alexander Bublik
Since Roland Garros, Alexander Bublik has been playing tennis worthy of the Top 8, capturing multiple titles and often only being stopped by Sinner at key events. This consistency has given him an outside chance of reaching Turin.
To do so, he would likely need to win the Paris Masters and potentially add another title at an ATP 250 the following week. That’s a tall order requiring both endurance and luck, so while the Kazakh is not mathematically out, his qualification chances look more like a dream than a realistic outcome.
Daniil Medvedev
A former ATP Finals champion, Daniil Medvedev, seemed completely out of the race not long ago after a disastrous Slam season where he went 1–4 in total. However, a few solid runs in the fall swing, including ending his 29-month title drought in Almaty, have put him back in the mix.
Like Bublik, though, Medvedev would have to win in Paris and then follow up with another title at an ATP 250 to stay alive in the race. It’s improbable, but considering how his season unfolded, even being in contention is a positive finish for the former World No.1.
Potential Wildcard Scenarios
A record seven-time champion at this event, 38-year-old Novak Djokovic qualified for the Finals long ago, just as he did last year. However, he has yet to confirm whether he will actually participate.
Last season, he skipped the tournament entirely to focus on physical recovery and a longer off-season. A repeat of that decision would once again open a spot in the draw, allowing another player to sneak into the field.
Such a scenario would be a relief for Musetti, who risks losing his position after being comfortably ahead of the pack midseason, and could also spare players like Bublik or Medvedev from having to add another event to their schedules if results, such as an immediate loss for Felix Auger-Aliassime, fall their way.
Regardless of how the final permutations unfold, one thing is certain: despite the clear dominance of two players this year, the race to Turin is going right down to the wire and promises to set up another thrilling ATP Finals.
Main Photo Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images