The government is seemingly pursuing the same strategy this time round, with Economy Minister Éric Lombard telling Bloomberg that a deal was “probably more likely” with the Socialists. 

The National Rally also needs a solid argument to rock the boat, and the government isn’t going to hand them one. Shortly after the budget plan announcement, the government landed a rebate on the EU budget, a longtime demand of the National Rally.

“We want to appear reasonable, and we are also aware that we might inherit the situation tomorrow,” a party official, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly, said ahead of the budget announcement. 

Socialists’ dilemma

The key question, though, is which way the Socialists will jump.

Naturally, they mauled Bayrou’s two-hour austerity budget pitch as “unfair,” “brutal” and “unacceptable.” The party’s parliamentary group said: “As things stand, censuring the government is the only perspective.”

Strong stuff, but the Socialists tellingly stopped short of joining France’s other left-wing forces — the Greens, France Unbowed and the Communist Party — in calling for Bayrou’s immediate resignation.