“As a result, Statistics Canada must postpone the release of merchandise trade data for the September reference month, as well as the release of monthly trade in services, which depends on complete merchandise trade data and other information published by U.S. federal agencies,” it said.
In turn, the lack of September trade data will impact the release of other analytical reports and tools that rely on it as an input. The publication of revisions to data from prior months — which would normally be reported alongside the September data — is also delayed, the agency noted.
Additionally, StatCan said trade data could be affected for several months, based on past experience with U.S. government shutdowns.
For instance, the last time that the U.S. government was shuttered for 35 days, in 2018-2019, international trade data was delayed for five straight months, it noted.
However, the agency is planning a workaround to estimate trade data for September, if necessary, to produce upcoming quarterly reports.
StatCan said its data on Canada’s balance of payments and GDP — which use merchandise trade data as an input — will be published as planned on Nov. 27 and 28, respectively.
“If the September international merchandise trade data are unavailable when these statistics are compiled for the third quarter, Statistics Canada will produce special estimates of Canadian exports to the United States for that month, relying in part on modelled data,” the agency said.