Get top DraftKings MMA DFS picks and strategy for UFC Vegas 111: Bonfim vs. Brown. Build winning lineups with our preview, analysis & fighter breakdowns.

UFC Vegas 111 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks

If you’re hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $300k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let’s get to the action…

Main Event – Welterweight

Gabriel Bonfim (18-1-0) v. Randy Brown (20-6-0)
DK Salaries: Bonfim ($8,600), Brown ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Bonfim (-180), Brown (+140)

These two were scheduled to fight in mid-October in Rio De Janeiro before the fight was moved to the headlining spot here.

Bonfim spent his entire career on the Brazilian regional scene before appearing in two fights for LFA back in 2021-22. He parlayed that into a shot on Dana White’s Contender Series in late-2022 and officially joined the UFC roster in early-2023. He’s 5-1 with the company, with the lone setback being a knockout against Nicolas Dalby in which he started quickly before badly gassing. 

It should be noted that Bonfim deserved to come up short in his most recent fight against Stephen Thompson in July, but was awarded a split decision win. That’s concerning because Thompson, even at his advanced age, was by far the best opponent Bonfim had seen to date.

Regular readers of this column know I’m a Brown supporter and have been for quite a while. Randy has shown no real signs of slowly down despite turning 35 years old in July. He’s 8-2 in his past 10 fights, with the setbacks being a split decision loss to Bryan Battle and a submission defeat to current UFC Welterweight Champion Jack Della Maddalena. There’s no shame in either of those results. 

Simply put, Bonfim lives and dies with his wrestling game. He averages 4.03 takedowns per 15 minutes and has landed at least three takedowns in four straight fights. He went 5-for-14 against Thompson, although it’s worth noting Bonfim racked up just 5:29 worth of control time. Wonderboy was able to work his way back to his feet consistently. Brown obviously doesn’t have the kickboxing credentials of Thompson, but he’s much bigger and fights much more physically. I’m not convinced Bonfim is going to be able to grind his way to a five-round decision here. 

We’ve seen Brown grounded multiple times in one fight in the past, and I expect him to hit the mat at some point against Bonfim. His career takedown defense is 73 percent. It’s imperative he remain active off his back in hopes of trying to improve position should the fight get there. 

Outside of one fight against Ange Loosa, Bonfim has never landed more than 40 significant strikes in any single UFC appearance. He’s such low-volume on the feet that I think Brown simply outworks him if the takedowns aren’t landing. Over a five-round fight, there’s obviously a greater chance of that happening. 

Bonfim deserves to be favored, but the number feels to high. I’d peg him at closer to -130 or -140, and if you wanted to make the argument this was essentially a pick ’em, I’d be willing to listen.

Even in Randy’s setbacks, he’s very rarely overwhelmed or outclassed. He’s the underdog play for me this week.

UFC VEGAS 111 PICK: Brown

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Co-Main Event – Flyweight

Matt Schnell (17-9-0, 1NC) v. Joseph Morales (14-2-0)
DK Salaries: Schnell ($6,700), Morales ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Schnell (+200), Morales (-265)

Schnell has been trending in the wrong direction for quite a while now. He lost three straight from December 2022 to September 2024 and is just 2-5 in his last seven. The UFC gave him a layup his last time out, and to his credit, he took advantage. Schnell took a unanimous decision from Jimmy Flick in April that was a lot closer than it needed to be. Set to turn 36 years old in January, Schnell projects as a .500 fighter for me moving forward. 

Morales was in the UFC back in the day. He dropped two of three fights with the company from August 2017 to November 2018 before being released. He barely fought on the regional scene, going 3-0 from August 2021 to February 2023. That got him a shot on The Ultimate Fighter and he won the Season 33 flyweight tournament in August with a win over Alibi Idiris. Morales is a baby by 125-pound standards at age 31, but I don’t know how you can trust him given how little he’s competed in recent years.

Schnell has an excellent frame for the division at 5-foot-8 and is active. He keeps a high pace and can wear on opposition at times. He has about the worst durability you will ever see, with five of his nine career setbacks coming via knockout, but he’s definitely somewhat dangerous early on despite having just two career wins via KO.

In many ways, Morales projects similarly. He, too, has no power, with just two career knockouts of his own. He does have seven wins via submission, but he doesn’t have a single win in his career over an opponent a casual fan would know. In fact, the only notable opponent he has ever faced is Deiveson Figueiredo back in February 2018 and he lost that fight via second-round knockout. 

On the surface, this feels like a fight in which Schnell has nothing to gain and everything to lose, but given he was a Flick setback away from a release, he really had no choice but to accept it. 

Schnell might be totally done, and I was hoping to take advantage of that with a nice price on Morales, but it wasn’t to be. I think he wins, but I’m certainly not rushing to use him at $9,300, which is also a terrible value in relation to his Vegas number. This one has quickly turned into a pass for me entirely.

UFC VEGAS 111 PICK: Morales

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Welterweight

Muslim Salikhov (22-5-0) v. Uros Medic (11-3-0)
DK Salaries: Salikhov ($7,400), Medic ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Salikhov (+145), Medic (-190)

Salikhov looked as if he was just about done after losing three of four, including a pair via knockout, from July 2022 to February 2024, but he has since rebounded with three straight wins. Those victories were knockouts of Carlos Leal (as a massive underdog) and Song Kenan in addition to a split decision over Santiago Ponzinibbio. It’s going to go bad for Salikhov once again if the UFC isn’t careful regarding they level of competition they match him up against moving forward, but the fact he is still putting forth quality performances at age 41 is pretty impressive.

Medic is one of the more entertaining guys in the company. He is yet to see the final bell in any of his 14 career fights. Five of his eight career UFC appearances, including his last three, have ended in Round 1. Neither of his last two fights have lasted longer than 63 seconds.

As one would guess given the numbers I just gave you, Medic has legitimate power and pays zero attention to defending himself. He’s there to earn a stoppage win, preferably immediately, and he’s willing to put himself in harm’s way to get it.

The fact Uros only absorbs 3.5 significant strikes per minute is remarkable. I would have guessed that number would be much higher. Of course, all his statistics have to be taken with a grain of salt given how quickly most of his bouts end. Medic has competed as high as middleweight in the past and as low as lightweight. Welterweight seems to be his current and future home, as this will be his sixth straight fight at 170 pounds. 

Like Medic, Salikhov lives and dies with his striking game. He had 199 fights as a professional kickboxer (185-13-1) and 15 of his 22 career MMA wins have come via knockout. Give his one-dimensional offensive skill set, the downfall is likely going to be severe when it finally arrives, but Salikhov is so technical in the stand-up that he’s going to be able to more than hold his own against non-grapplers such as Medic. 

Even if you think Medic likely wins, which I was originally on the fence about, the price has made this a Salikhov play all day long.

Medic doesn’t defend himself and his fights typically end in an instant. Salikhov certainly has the edge in terms of technical striking. Uros is not the guy you want to be backing as a favorite, especially a somewhat significant one. 

UFC VEGAS 111 PICK: Salikhov
 

Bantamweight

Ricky Simon (22-6-0) v. Raoni Barcelos (20-5-0)
DK Salaries: Simon ($8,400), Barcelos ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Simon (-165), Barcelos (+130)

Simon is one of the most inconsistent fighters on the roster in any division. He won five straight from May 2020 to July 2022 and looked like a legitimate future title contender in a loaded bantamweight division. He then lost three fights in a row before winning his last two. I have zero idea what to make of him moving forward. Ricky was at his best early in his career when he would spam takedown attempts. Yes, he’s landed at least two successful tries in nine of his last 10 bouts, but he just doesn’t appear to be attacking his opposition with the same type of commitment. I also don’t trust his cardio.

Speaking of release candidates, Barcelos was most certainly on the list after losing four of five from June 2021 to August 2023. The UFC gave him another chance and the aging Brazilian has since won three in a row, including a unanimous decision over Cody Garbrandt last time out in June. It’s worth noting that Barcelos, who is now 38 years old, is typically a guy that fights once a year, maybe twice. This will be his third bout of 2025. I’m not sure if that’s a positive or negative at this point.

Similar to the main event, I think Simon is at serious risk of getting outworked on the feet if the takedowns aren’t landing. He’s an awkward and uncomfortable striker. His power comes and goes, and I often find he’s lunging and off balance. That, combined with spending so much time on the mat, leads to Simon landing just 2.93 significant strikes per minute. That said, I expect Ricky to be quicker that Barcelos in all areas. His stand-up defense is probably just as important as his stand-up offense in this one.

The difference maker for me is that this is a three-round fight. In a five-rounder, I’d probably trust Barcelos’ experience and his ability to remain upright long enough to outwork Simon on the feet. Now? I’m not so sure.

This is not a deep card and I hate the idea of passing on fights entirely, but this is another one in which I don’t feel confident in the least regarding the outcome. 

Forced to choose, I’d take Simon, but he’s entirely untrustworthy. Don’t get too over-invested either way.

UFC VEGAS 111 PICK: Simon
 

Other Bouts

Lightweight
Chris Padilla (16-6-0) v. Ismael Bonfim (20-5-0)
DK Salaries: Padilla ($7,200), Bonfim ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Padilla (+165), Bonfim (-215)
UFC VEGAS 111 PICK: Bonfim

Middleweight 
Christian Leroy Duncan (12-2-0) v. Marco Tulio (14-1-0)
DK Salaries: Duncan ($7,500), Tulio ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Duncan (+140), Tulio (-180)
UFC VEGAS 111 PICK: Duncan

Featherweight
Hyder Amil (11-1-0) v. Jamall Emmers (21-8-0)
DK Salaries: Amil ($8,200), Emmers ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Amil (-145), Emmers (+115)
UFC VEGAS 111 PICK: Amil

Women’s Bantamweight
Mayra Bueno Silva (10-5-1, 1NC) v. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (9-1-0)
DK Salaries: Bueno Silva ($7,000), Cavalcanti ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Bueno Silva (+210), Cavalcanti (-280)
UFC VEGAS 111 PICK: Cavalcanti

Heavyweight
Josh Hokit (6-0-0) v. Max Gimenis (6-1-0)
DK Salaries: Hokit ($9,400), Gimenis ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Hokit (-400), Gimenis (+185)
UFC VEGAS 111 PICK: Hokit

Women’s Strawweight
Tecia Pennington (15-7-0) v. Denise Gomes (11-3-0)
DK Salaries: Pennington ($7,300), Gomes ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Pennington (+155), Gomes (-200)
UFC VEGAS 111 PICK: Pennington

Bantamweight
Miles Johns (15-4-0, 1NC) v. Daniel Marcos (17-1-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Johns ($7,700), Marcos ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Johns (+140), Marcos (-185)
UFC VEGAS 111 PICK: Johns

Middleweight
Jackson McVey (6-1-0) v. Robert Valentin (11-6-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: McVey ($7,900), Valentin ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: McVey (+140), Valentin (-180)
UFC VEGAS 111 PICK: Valentin

Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.

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DraftKings MMA Scoring

Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.

Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)

Scoring Notes

Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered “Power Strikes” by official scorers.A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 PtsControl Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it’s possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jon Litterine plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: JLitterine.