No Boston Red Sox outfielder, it seems, has been the subject of more trade speculation this season — and now, offseason — than 29-year-old Jarren Duran. The 2024 All-Star Game MVP saw his production level off this season, finishing with a .774 OPS and 16 home runs, down from .834 and 21 a year earlier.
In addition, on defense, Duran’s nine defensive runs saved, according to FanGraphs, were good enough to rank him 16th among all outfielders but were down significantly from his 23 the year before, which placed him second in MLB.
It looks like Duran’s decline, while noticeable, has still left him as a solid player, making him a logical trade candidate in a Boston outfield already so overpopulated that it appears at least one player will need to be moved. But according to one Red Sox insider, it will not be Duran who gets traded out of Boston after all.
According to Chris Cotillo, who covers the Red Sox for MassLive, the outfielder most likely to be traded is 25-year-old center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela, who just on Monday was named the American League Gold Glove award winner for center fielders.
Red Sox right fielder Wilyer Abreu also won a Gold Glove — for the second straight year — leaving Duran as the odd man out defensively.
Rafaela’s award was well-deserved. The third-year outfielder from the Caribbean island of Curaçao led all major league center fielders in defensive runs saved with 20, per FanGraphs, five more than Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Chicago Cubs in second place.
So why does Cotillo believe that Rafaela, rather than Duran, will be traded away?
“The Red Sox are going to find Duran’s value to be lower than they expect and Rafaela’s to be much higher than expected across the game,” Cotillo wrote on Monday. “Therefore, headlining a trade package with Rafaela — most teams won’t balk at the six years and $48 million (plus a club option) he’s guaranteed — can’t be ruled out.”
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Rafaela signed his contract extension before the 2024 season, and if he is not traded, the deal keeps him at Fenway Park through 2031.
The Red Sox have committed to Duran for just one more year, avoiding arbitration with the player going into his sixth year by inking him Tuesday to a $7.7 million deal.
At the same time, Cotillo on Monday also predicted that the Red Sox would sign free-agent designated hitter Kyle Schwarber, an 11-year veteran who led the National League by blasting 56 home runs for the Philadelphia Phillies.
“Trading (Rafaela) is not Plan A for the Sox but would allow a (left-to-right) outfield of (Roman) Anthony, Duran (who is better in center than left) and Abreu with someone like Schwarber getting a full load of DH at-bats,” Cotillo wrote.
If Schwarber — who is anticipated to land a deal as long as five years at $150 million, per MLB.com — lands with the Red Sox it would be a homecoming of sorts. The Chicago Cubs’ 2014 first-round draft pick, fourth overall, ended up in Boston at the 2021 trade deadline and was instrumental in getting the Red Sox to the playoffs that year.
In 168 plate appearances down the stretch for the Red Sox, Schwarber compiled a .957 OPS with seven home runs and 10 doubles.
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