We’re halfway through the NFL season, and the surprises haven’t slowed down. With the trade deadline behind us, a midseason check-in still shows some of the usual suspects: The Kansas City Chiefs are favored to win the Super Bowl, followed by the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions.

The surprises start below that. The Indianapolis Colts are 7-2, the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams are tied for the NFC West lead at 6-2 and the Baltimore Ravens are 3-5. Will Baltimore make its expected charge back up the standings? Can the Colts hold on? Will the Chiefs win enough to justify their hold on Super Bowl favorite?

We’re breaking down the AFC and NFC odds with a look at each division before the second half of regular-season action starts.

AFC odds

With the Bills’ win over the Chiefs on Sunday, they reasserted themselves as top favorites to win the AFC … tied with the Chiefs. And then this morning, Kansas City slipped back on top.

But perhaps more interesting than the annual Chiefs-Bills rivalry of the 2020s is the fact that right below them is a vision from a former decade: The Colts and Denver Broncos making their bid. The Colts last won an AFC Championship in 2007, and the Broncos in 2015. Welcome back, contenders.

In fifth in the odds is the Ravens, who have very little margin for error through the second half of the season. But, thanks to a soft division (looking less soft as the Pittsburgh Steelers seem to have staying power), they are still favored to win the AFC North. Let’s dig into the division odds.

AFC North

The Ravens had a horrific start, but with Lamar Jackson back, they’re looking to claw their way back into the fight. As it stands now, they’re 3-5, ahead of Cincinnati and Cleveland. While they’re coming off a 28-6 domination of the Dolphins and are favored in Week 10 against the Vikings, that outing in Minnesota should be anything but easy.

With nine games remaining, the Ravens likely can afford only two more losses if they want to be in a strong position for the postseason. In the current playoff format, 10-win teams made the postseason 88 percent of the time while nine-win teams got in only 40 percent of the time.

The Steelers need five more wins to reach that mark. The teams play each other for the first time in Week 14. Baltimore has Cleveland and Cincinnati before that, which SHOULD be easy wins*, plus the New York Jets in Week 12. Not a bad schedule. Pittsburgh is an underdog to the Chargers this week and then has a potentially brutal run after Cincy in Week 11: at Chicago, vs. Buffalo, then at Baltimore.

*Beware the divisional trap!

AFC East

We’re back in a previous decade with the New England Patriots threatening for the prime spot in the AFC East. Buffalo is favored, but New England is nearing 50-50 odds and is ahead in the standings at 7-2 to Buffalo’s 6-2. Oh, and let’s not forget about that Patriots’ win in Buffalo. The teams play again in Week 15 after New England’s bye.

AFC South

With the NFL trade deadline on Tuesday, the league-leading 7-2 Colts made a clear move to go all-in on this season with a trade for Sauce Gardner. The only threat to their position in the South is the 5-3 Jacksonville Jaguars, who just struggled to put away the Raiders. But Indy has a tough few games after their Week 11 bye: at Kansas City, vs. Houston, at Jacksonville.

AFC West

That’s right, the Broncos have shorter odds — by the tiniest of margins — than the Chiefs to win the AFC West. This despite the fact that the Broncos are +750 to win the AFC Championship compared to the Chiefs’ +300 odds. KC is 5-4 to Denver’s 7-2, but the second half of the season is where winners are made. Denver keeps figuring out how to win games, but has had bafflingly close calls against the Jets, Giants and Texans. Guess who’s up in Week 11? Kansas City.

NFC odds

Now THIS is a tight race. Nobody can really make heads or tails of the NFC, though two of its divisions aren’t even close in the odds. But across the conference, there are contenders everywhere you look. The Rams and Eagles are tied at +400 to become the conference champions, but the Lions (+450), Green Bay Packers (+500) and Seahawks (+550) are right on their heels.

NFC East

Not a lot of gray in the NFC East, apart from the weather. The 6-2 Eagles are massive favorites at -3000 odds (an over 96 percent likelihood!), with the Cowboys trailing at +2500 (less than 4 percent). Dallas’ big trade on Tuesday didn’t budge the odds, either. The Cowboys have an unforgiving schedule after their bye this week, with Philadelphia up in Week 12, followed by a gauntlet of Kansas City, Detroit, Minnesota and Los Angeles Chargers. Meanwhile, Philly is rounding into form and just topped The Athletic’s power rankings after Week 9.

NFC North

This is one of the tighter divisions. Green Bay is ahead of Detroit in the standings and the odds, with one loss less (thanks to a tie against Dallas). The Packers host Philly on Monday, then play the Giants and Vikings before traveling to Detroit in Week 13. Detroit also plays the Eagles before hosting the Packers, and just lost to the Vikings. The Lions look like the better team with more decisive wins, but Any Given Sunday rules always apply.

NFC South

While the Carolina Panthers have certainly been better than anyone expected, this is Tampa Bay’s division to lose. At -750 odds (over 85 percent), the 6-2 Buccaneers just need to figure out how to get and stay healthier for the home stretch of the season. If they keep getting injured, how long can Baker Mayfield carry the team? Could the Panthers beat the odds and keep winning from this 5-4 base? They have two division games against the Saints and Falcons up next, but then a brutal stretch against the 49ers and Rams before their bye in Week 14.

NFC West

And here we are: The tightest division of them all. Though not from an odds standpoint. Did anyone expect the Rams and Seahawks to have considerably shorter odds than the 49ers at the halfway point? Expect the odds to change over the next couple of weeks as each team gets two divisional matchups in a row. The Rams, who have the best Super Bowl and NFC Championship odds of the bunch at +850 and +400, respectively, have the toughest version of that divisional gauntlet, playing at San Francisco in Week 10 and vs. Seattle in Week 11. Seattle and SF have Arizona on their docket.

Seattle may be the best bet as they have been playing lights-out and won six of their last seven games. But once the 49ers get healthy, look out.