Supermicro Slides 9%, But Its AI Pipeline Looks Massive

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

Supermicro (NASDAQ:SMCI) had a rough night on Wall Street. Shares sank about 9% in after-hours trading Monday after the company’s latest quarterly results missed expectations even though its forecast for the next quarter left analysts stunned.

For the quarter ended September 30, the AI server maker posted adjusted earnings of $0.35 a share, a bit below the expected $0.39. Revenue came in at $5 billion, missing estimates by roughly $800 million and marking a 15% drop from last year. Margins stayed mostly steady at 9.5%.

But the mood quickly shifted once investors saw what’s coming next. Supermicro is guiding for second-quarter revenue between $10 billion and $11 billion way ahead of Wall Street’s $8.05 billion forecast. CEO Charles Liang said the company’s rapidly expanding order book now includes more than $13B in Blackwell Ultra AI server orders, and he expects at least $36 billion in revenue for fiscal 2026.

Analysts say the selloff looks more emotional than logical calling it AI panic rather than a sign of real weakness. Supermicro, they argue, is still sitting right at the heart of the AI gold rush.