Five things to watch out for at the F1 Brazil GP

Can Norris and McLaren confirm their Mexico GP form? – Oleg Karpov

McLaren took its first victory since Zandvoort at the end of August, with Lando Norris’ dominant Mexico weekend underlining why the papaya squad secured the constructors’ title well before the end of the season. For Norris, it marked a major turnaround in his campaign: not only did he look untouchable, but he also returned to the top of the drivers’ standings for the first time since April. Even more remarkable is that he erased a 34-point deficit to Oscar Piastri in just five races following his DNF at Zandvoort.

Many now see Norris as the title favourite, although he has repeatedly said he doesn’t believe in momentum and views each weekend as a new challenge. Brazil will be another test: it was at Interlagos last year that he virtually lost any hope of beating Max Verstappen after a chaotic weekend. With rain again in the forecast, this could become another unpredictable Interlagos race.

Piastri, meanwhile, has plenty to prove. The Australian hasn’t been on the podium since Monza and currently looks a shadow of his early-season self. With Norris in form and Verstappen closing in, he can’t afford to lose further ground. His recent weekends in Austin and Mexico suggest he’s still struggling to find confidence in the MCL39, just as his team-mate seems to have fully understood what he needs from the car. If Piastri wants to stay in the title fight, he needs a strong result in Sao Paulo.

Lando Norris, McLaren

What factor will rain play in the title fight? – Owen Bellwood

After a tough start to the year, Verstappen’s season has turned around following a stellar run that saw him win three out of four races and slash his points deficit to the top of the F1 standings. He’s now just 36 points off the top spot and, if he wants to keep his championship dreams alive, will have to keep that form running into Sao Paulo to have any hope of catching a charging Norris.

One factor that could prove key to his ambitions for a fifth consecutive F1 title will be something that makes Brazil such an exciting race for fans watching from home or the grandstands: the changeable weather. So far, rain is predicted to fall on Saturday, which could impact both qualifying and the sprint race.

In rough conditions, the championship protagonists all have varying form. Norris has increasingly found his feet in wet conditions, and won the mixed weather season opener in Australia. But as that race showed he – like Piastri – also hasn’t been completely flawless when the rain starts coming down.

Verstappen, meanwhile, is one of F1’s wet weather masters. He picked up a commanding win in a rain-soaked Brazil last year, and that confidence will no doubt help come Saturday. Should the rain help the Dutchman put on another show in qualifying to outshine the McLaren pair, they will have a big task on their hands to get ahead of him come Sunday – especially if Verstappen can smell a win that would further cut the gap to the top. Could the conditions be Verstappen’s biggest ally this weekend?

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB20

Ferrari and Mercedes are separated by one point, who is taking the upper hand? – Filip Cleeren

One of Ferrari chief Fred Vasseur’s favourite sayings is that he doesn’t possess a crystal ball to predict how the final stages of the 2025 season will play out. That sounds like a cop out, but one look at the 2025 form table between Ferrari and its closest championship rival Mercedes shows he is right. Neither Ferrari’s nor Mercedes’ form has been easy to predict.

Yet here were are – with four rounds remaining the two great brands are separated by just one single point. Quite how they got there is intriguing. Mercedes’ Jekyll and Hyde performances have been particularly hard to predict, being nowhere on certain circuits and dominant on others – see George Russell‘s two wins in Canada and Singapore. Russell will be feeling pretty good about his chances to repeat in Las Vegas as well.

Russell should be in the conversation as one of the drivers of the season, making up for his new team-mate Andrea Kimi Antonelli‘s rookie inexperience to hold a convincing fourth in the drivers’ championship.

Contrastingly, Ferrari has had a fairly flat season with zero wins, and while Charles Leclerc has scored a decent haul of podiums whenever he had the tools to do so, Lewis Hamilton has had a much more difficult time adapting to his new machinery.

Vasseur is right, then, their performance swings make it hard to predict which of the two teams is going to come out on top. But with time running out, neither can afford any more missteps, especially as Verstappen is single-handedly dragging Red Bull back to within striking distance…

Esteban Ocon, Haas F1 Team, Oliver Bearman, Haas F1 Team, Ayao Komatsu, Haas F1 Team

Who’s landing the next strike in F1’s midfield battle? – Filip Cleeren

Further down the line, the constructors’ battle keeps raging too. And with every position in the standings worth roughly $10m, you can be assured none of the contenders will go down without a fight. Holding fifth with 111 points, Williams should by all accounts be safe even if the Grove squad has been making life difficult for itself in recent weeks, as evidenced by its Mexico shocker.

Racing Bulls will be a lot less confident about its chances to hold onto sixth after three scoreless weekends on the trot. Following a mid-season resurgence, Aston Martin has had trouble keeping up as well and is still three points behind the Anglo-Italian team.

The real threat seems to be coming from behind, after Oliver Bearman’s outstanding fourth place in Mexico catapulted Haas above Sauber to within 10 points of sixth, the American team galvanised by a late season upgrade in Austin.

Another two points behind, Sauber is staying in touch as Nico Hulkenberg and Gabriel Bortoleto snatch the odd result, even if the future Audi team doesn’t feel equipped to keep pace with Haas over the remaining four rounds. Will Haas’ upgrade strategy pay dividends by the end of the year?

Gabriel Bortoleto, Sauber

Bortoleto’s homecoming finally gives fans a new Brazilian hero – Carlos Costa

Speaking of Bortoleto, the rookie returned to the points in Mexico after his most difficult weekend so far in the US, raising expectations of a strong home debut in front of the passionate Brazilian fans.

As was the case in Austin, the sprint format won’t play into Bortoleto’s hands, as he doesn’t actually know Interlagos as well as you might expect – he only raced in Sao Paulo once, in the 2022 Stock Car Pro season opener, so like other rookies he will lose valuable track time with only one practice session.

For Bortoleto the weekend presents another chance to impress with his one-lap pace after largely outqualifying experienced team-mate Hulkenberg this season, Hulkenberg famously taking his maiden pole in Brazil in 2010 with Williams.

With the prospect of rain on Saturday, Hulkenberg may fancy his chances of a surprise result after the veteran capitalised on wet conditions in Silverstone and Australia, two eventful non-finishes for Bortoleto. On the other hand, the Brazilian performed very well over the Spa sprint weekend, which also featured rain-affected sessions.

Whatever the case, Bortoleto won’t be short of support on his home debut as Brazilian fans finally get to cheer on one of their own again, eight long years after Felipe Massa’ latest grand prix outing around Interlagos. It will undoubtedly make one of the best race weekends on the F1 calendar extra vibrant.

Five things to watch out for at the F1 Brazil GP

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