Imagn Images
The AFC West takes center stage to kick off Week 10 of the 2025 NFL season as the Las Vegas Raiders head to Denver to take on the Broncos. The Raiders have been bad in the first half of the season, going 2-6 under new head coach Pete Carroll, while the Broncos are at 7-2 amid a six-game winning streak. Both teams have notable running backs as they look to establish the ground game, with rookie Ashton Jeanty headlining the Vegas offense while J.K. Dobbins has enjoyed a nice first season in Denver.
There are plenty of NFL player props for each of these two lead backs, so who should you be backing for Thursday Night Football Week 10? Here, we use the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, to help make our picks. All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the SportsLine model’s game forecast for Raiders vs. Broncos, as well expert picks and best bets.
Carries props
Ashton Jeanty: 14.5 (Over -117, Under -109)
J.K. Dobbins: 15.5 (Over -130, Under +102)
Top pick: Ashton Jeanty Under 14.5 carries (3.5 stars)
The Raiders desperately want to unleash Jeanty, but the problem is their defense is lackluster and their offense hasn’t done enough to sustain drives and put points on the board. That’s led to the team having to abandon the run as it plays catch up late in games. Jeanty is 4-4 on this prop line, going Over and Under 14.5 carries four times each, with two Unders across his last two games. Denver’s defense is among the best in football while Vegas just traded top receiver Jakobi Meyers, so this may be another instance where the game script gets away from Jeanty as the Raiders have to spend the second half throwing the football. Jeanty is projected to have 13.2 carries on Thursday.
Rushing yards props
Ashton Jeanty: 55.5 (Over -110, Under -114)
J.K. Dobbins: 72.5 (Over -114, Under -110)
Top pick: J.K. Dobbins Over 72.5 rushing yards (4 stars)
Sticking with the game script line of thinking, if the Broncos are up big against a lackluster Raiders team, that means they’ll be running the football quite a bit. That would mean more opportunities for Dobbins and the SportsLine model likes him to go Over his 72.5 rushing yards line with a projection of 84.5. Dobbins has gone Over 72.5 rushing yards in six of nine games this season, and he’s been the clear lead back for Denver despite the team using a second-round pick on R.J. Harvey.Â