One of the most pivotal games in the 2025 NFL MVP race took place last week, with reigning winner Josh Allen of the Bills again getting the best of nemesis Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in a regular-season matchup.

Allen led the way to a 28-21 victory in which he rushed for two scores while throwing for 273 yards and another touchdown. Mahomes completed just 15 of 34 passes for 250 yards with one interception in his first touchdown-pass free game of the season.  

As we surmised for the past several weeks in this space, Buffalo’s victory flipped the MVP odds between Allen and Mahomes, who was the front-runner with odds of around +130 and Allen at +300. Now, the best price on Allen you will find is around +150, but if you’re still a Mahomes supporter, it’s best to look around because various sportsbooks, based on both their overall handle on the prop and the opinions of their oddsmakers, offer vastly different numbers.

For example, we’ve seen Mahomes in the +300 range, but FanDuel is currently offering him at +450, making him an underdog to Drake Maye (+400) of the Patriots. We didn’t want any part of Mahomes in the even-money range, but this revised price is a steal in part because, ironically, the loss to the Bills might have improved his chances of earning the MVP award.

This is because, at 5-4, the Chiefs now sit at third place in the AFC West behind the surging Denver Broncos (7-2). They come out of their bye with a visit to Denver on Nov. 16 and later host the Broncos on Christmas Day. It stands to reason a sweep will likely be needed to overcome the two-game gap and, moreover, a realistic chance that their second meeting will determine the division winner. Should they pull this off with Mahomes putting up massive numbers, we feel he’d likely retake the lead down the stretch from Allen.

Conversely, the the Bills (6-2) have a modest remaining slate and should be favored in every game. Should they take care of business and exact revenge against the Patriots (7-2), the AFC East title could be wrapped up with room to spare. Meaning, Allen could be in for limited work in Weeks 17 and 18 if the division is wrapped up and their playoff seed solidified. Regardless, Mahomes and the Chiefs are likely to be playing for higher stakes and the time to get the best value on Mahomes is now while he’s a depressed asset.

We were stunned to see Mahomes behind Maye in the MVP odds because the path for the second-year North Carolina product seems much more clouded. He’d have to lead the Patriots to a sweep of the Bills and an AFC East title while the Chiefs would have to come up short in the AFC West, and even that might not be enough. We don’t believe there’s enough voter fatigue for them to turn to Maye unless he is nothing short of spectacular. Maye turned the ball over twice, but New England held off the Falcons 24-23 last week.

Chalk to fade  

Matthew Stafford (+550): In addition to Maye, we’re ignoring the golden-armed, Super Bowl-winning veteran signal-caller simply because we don’t see a clear path for him to overcome the likes of Mahomes and Allen. The Rams face the 49ers, Seahawks and Buccaneers in the next three weeks and could easily go 1-2 in this stretch, a fate that would almost surely doom Stafford’s hopes.

In the longshot conversation, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (+2500) is worth keeping an eye on and perhaps a lottery-ticket wager. We mentioned him a few weeks ago, but he ultimately returned to action from his hamstring a week later than anticipated. However, his four-TD performance in a 28-6 thumping of the Dolphins cut his odds in half from (+5000) pregame, meaning some Jackson investors have already staked their claim and the sportsbooks won’t sleep on him. Although it will still likely take the Ravens running the table and Jackson looking spectacular in the process for his MVP wagers to see real equity, you can also likely say goodbye to (+2500) after this week.

Odds, analysis of other NFL award races

The Coach of the Year race appears to be down to Shane Steichen of the Colts and Mike Vrabel of the Patriots, with odds of around +150 each. We are heavily invested in Steichen and cringed at their lackluster, six-turnover performance in a 27-20 loss to the Steelers. Even so, we still the Colts winning 12 games and winning the AFC South, which should be enough keep Steichen the favorite. His odds plummeted to around +100 last week, so now’s the time to buy the dip on the Colts coach if you’re still on their bandwagon. Mike Macdonald (+425) of the overachieving Seahawks has joined the race, but we’re going to dismiss him because the Rams should take hold of the NFC West and Seattle could finish as low as third.

In the Comeback Player of the Year race, 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey (-110) has overtaken Dak Prescott (+150) of the Cowboys as the favorite. We liked him from the start with opening odds of around +300 and, despite the reduced price, injury risk is the only thing in the way of McCaffery being the runaway winner.

This is because McCaffery is the most heavily relied upon, non-quarterback in the NFL and not only is he delivering, but he’s also leading the injury-ravaged 49ers (6-3) to a winning season. He currently has 596 rushing yards and four scores to go along with 626 receiving yards and two more touchdowns. Conversely, the highly-paid Prescott ($60 million or just about $4 million per start) has put up some glossy numbers (2,319 passing yards and 17 TDs against six INTs), but it looks as though the defensively-challenged Cowboys (3-5-1) will likely spend another postseason watching the games from home.Â