When Kaiden Guhle broke into the NHL with the Montreal Canadiens back in 2022, he was immediately thrust into a situation that was not conducive to success for a rookie defenceman in the NHL. Newly acquired Mike Matheson missed the a good chunk of the opening of the season, as did Joel Edmundson, leaving Martin St-Louis’s defence core with veterans David Savard and Chris Wideman, sophomore Jonathan Kovacevic, and a group of rookies including Guhle himself.

Fully in a rebuild after finishing dead-last the season before, the biggest issue facing the Canadiens was their defensive play, which was atrocious, to put it kindly. With Matheson and Edmundson out, Guhle quickly emerged as the most reliable defenceman on the team, leading to St-Louis and his coaching staff trusting Guhle with very difficult matchups as he topped 20 minutes of ice time in 10 of his first 15 games.

While Guhle was clearly the top defensive prospect of that class, let’s just say his baptism into the NHL was by fire. Since then, he has consistently been among the Canadiens’ best defencemen, but has since been overtaken by Lane Hutson and Noah Dobson, while David Reinbacher is waiting in the wings to put some pressure on as well.

Complicating things for Guhle has been a streak of injuries to start his career that have caused him to miss 83 regular-season games in his young career, about a third of the games the Canadiens have played since he made the roster.

Currently on Injured Reserve now with a week-to-week lower-body injury in his fourth NHL season, what should we expect from the 23-year-old going forward as the Canadiens ascend from rebuilding to contending?

Early returns

This season is a little bit young to take too seriously, but using time on ice as a limiter to give us samples of NHL defencemen close to the 192 mark (six defencemen each from 32 teams) on Evolving Hockey’s database can give us an idea of how Guhle compares to his peers through his first three NHL seasons and a couple weeks of his fourth.

Using goals above replacement (GAR) and expected goals above replacement (xGAR) gives us a ballpark view of Guhle’s total contributions in all situations, estimating his impact on goal differential and expected goal differential.

While clearly overwhelmed by the volume of tough-minute assignments he received as a rookie, since then Guhle has consistently given the Canadiens the results of a #3 defenceman on the dept chart from ages 21 through 23.

Mike Matheson has been a big part of Guhle’s development path, taking on the toughest assignments most nights in order to let the younger Canadiens defencemen breathe a little, but Guhle deserves his flowers as well for this level of consistent performance as such a young player on a very inconsistent team, while dealing with a myriad of injuries. Not to mention often playing on his off-side.

Considering the development of Hutson and the acquisition of Noah Dobson, Guhle already being a solid number-three defenceman in the NHL is a serious boon to the Canadiens, but my question is how good can he be if this is the version of Guhle we get at 23 years old: oft-injured and unlikely to be deployed in an ideal scenario?

Consistency is key

Hockey is a sport that contains a lot of randomness within it, a lot of variance. Considering the extreme situation he found himself in during this rebuild, the consistency in results Guhle has offered the Habs says a lot. If we combine the data from his sophomore season onward, where does Guhle rank by these same metrics?

By goals above replacement, Guhle ranks 63rd of 203 regular NHL defencemen, meaning he has been a lower-end number-two defenceman by that metric. By expected goals above replacement, Guhle ranks 58th of 203 regular NHL defencemen, slotting him in the same position.

While these metrics don’t tell us everything, it’s a relatively safe assumption that Guhle will settle in through his prime as a mid-tier number-three defenceman at worst. The consistency of his play is what makes him so effective, meaning his coach can trust him to be the same player and give similar results for his club. The capability to give the results of a good number-three essentially all the time makes him more than that.

Coaches adore players they can trust, and it’s relatively rare to earn that badge of honour at such a young age, and we know Martin St-Louis has a whole lot of trust in Guhle. How rare exactly? Guess how many of the 57 defencemen ranked ahead of Guhle in xGAR since 2023 are younger than he is. Brandt Clarke, Hutson, and Jake Sanderson. That’s it. By GAR Simon Edvinsson and Owen Power jump ahead, but Clarke drops behind.

Not just defensive

While Guhle is very rarely going to get power-play time over Hutson, Dobson, or Matheson, it’s worth noting that he is much more than simply a defensive defenceman. Guhle’s puck skills allow him to be a big part of the Canadiens’ transition game and contribute offence at five-on-five with 0.93 points per 60 minutes, the 75th-highest mark over the last few seasons. That may not seem like a lot of offence, but that puts him in the same range as players like Brent Burns, Drew Doughty, Travis Sanheim, and Aaron Ekblad.

Guhle isn’t a dynamic playmaker like Hutson or Dobson, nor is he the skating threat that Matheson is, but his skill level being above average in so many areas allows him to be a very versatile contributor.

He doesn’t have the biggest shot, but his 0.28 goals per hour at five-on-five ties him for 37th among NHL regular defencemen since 2023. He’s not the fastest skater, but he keeps up with the vast majority of NHLers. He’s not the best playmaker, but he’s adept at finding teammates on breakouts, and making the right decision to allow whoever he’s passing the puck toward to have better options than he had. He’s not the most physical defenceman out there, but he’ll overpower the vast majority of his opponents.

Versatility and consistency are two of the most important qualities anyone can have at the top level in team sports. While Guhle may not bring the excitement that Hutson does, or the control of the pace of the game that Dobson does, he can be trusted in any situation to give a predictable result.

If Guhle were to never improve from where he is right now, he’s already good value at the 67th-highest cap hit in the NHL among defencemen, and the Canadiens’ depth on defence continues to look staggering with Reinbacher still waiting in the wings to join Guhle, Hutson, and Dobson. And that’s if Guhle doesn’t get even better, which he likely will, even by virtue of playing on his natural left side of the ice.

It’s easy to forget about the impact Guhle has had on the Canadiens since the additions of Hutson and Dobson, but he is a key cog in the future of the team.

Andrew Berkshire is the former managing editor of Eyes on the Prize, and the founder of Game Over Network Inc. A Canadian, employee-owned sports media startup focused on platforming young creators across the country. Find Andrew live on YouTube after Habs games with Game Over Montreal, where you can also find Marc Dumont, Kay Imam, and Conor Tomalty to bring you interactive postgame analysis. You can join the Game Over Network’s Discord, and support us on Patreon as we employ over 30 young sports journalists and analysts across Canada’s seven NHL markets.

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