In Week 9, we went 8-6 against the spread, but 2-3 on top bets. I’ve had a great year overall, but not with my top picks. Go figure. The Tennessee Titans actually covered the spread last Sunday, the Detroit Lions looked rusty off the bye and the New England Patriots blew a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter. Tough for me.

This week, Daniel Jones looks to rebound vs. the Atlanta Falcons in Berlin, we get an important AFC South showdown that I think will have a final score of 13-10 and the Pittsburgh Steelers look to build on their lead in the AFC North. The Baltimore Ravens are lurking in second place at 3-5, but they have a tough matchup this week against J.J. McCarthy and the Minnesota Vikings. 

Here’s a look at what I’m thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart. 

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users can get $150 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager:

Top five picks ATS record: 21-24
Overall ATS record: 76-59
Straight up record: 93-41-1

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

I’ll bite on the Panthers following their upset win over the Green Bay Packers. This is actually the first time Carolina has been favored over New Orleans since 2017! It’s warranted, as the Saints are 2-7 ATS on the year, which is the worst mark in the NFL. 

Tyler Shough lost to the Los Angeles Rams by 24 points in his first NFL start. Now, he has to go on the road again. The Saints offense ranks bottom three in points per game (15.3), yards per play (4.7), 25-yard plays (10) and touchdowns per drive (12.9%). The Panthers defense isn’t exactly the ’85 Bears, but I have Carolina winning by at least six points. The Panthers are 6-3 ATS on the year. 

The pick: Panthers -5.5
Projected score: Panthers 23-17

Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) at Minnesota Vikings

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

The Vikings’ upset of the Lions was maybe the biggest surprise for me last week. I did not like what I saw from J.J. McCarthy in his first two career starts, and I thought the door was wide open for Carson Wentz to steal the job. But McCarthy showed up to Detroit and accounted for three total touchdowns. He’s actually the only quarterback since 1950 to have two passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown in two of a player’s first three career starts.

Brian Flores made Jared Goff uncomfortable all game, but containing Lamar Jackson is a different kind of test. With that being said, Jackson didn’t exactly look spry in his return to the lineup last week. The Ravens have a legitimate chance to fight back and win the AFC North, but let’s not forget that this team has really struggled on defense. Does Baltimore really deserve to be favored by 4.5 points on the road vs. the Vikings? Minnesota is 4-0 at home vs. AFC teams over the last two seasons. 

I’ve gone back and forth on who will win this game, but I’ll take the home dogs to cover. 

The pick: Vikings +4.5
Projected score: Ravens 27-24

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

The Lions let me down last week, but the Commanders came through. And when I say the Commanders came through for me, I mean they failed to cover the spread against the Seattle Seahawks. In fantastic fashion, I might add. Washington hasn’t covered the spread in four straight games now. Many would blame the Commanders’ struggles on Jayden Daniels being in and out of the lineup, but it’s really the defense that has Washington staring down the barrel of a 3-7 start.

It’s incredible. This Dan Quinn defense allowed 33 of 35 completions for 492 passing yards and seven touchdowns in a four-quarter span from the second half of Week 8 at the Kansas City Chiefs, to the first half against Seattle last Sunday night. The Commanders have lost three straight games by 20+ points for the first time since 2001, and also just lost starting cornerback Marshon Lattimore, kick returner/wide receiver Luke McCaffrey and, of course, Daniels. I bet Detroit is out for blood following that surprising loss to Minnesota last week. Lions, big. 

The pick: Lions -8.5
Projected score: Lions 30-10

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

I’m not going to overreact to the Steelers’ victory over the Indianapolis Colts, but their defensive effort was fantastic. The Steelers won the turnover battle 6-1! What I am totally going to overreact to is Chargers offensive tackle Joe Alt being out for the season due to an ankle injury suffered on Sunday. L.A. is 1-3 and averages 18.7 points per game without Alt in the lineup. 

It’s a massive loss, and we saw that last week. The lowly Titans got to Justin Herbert six times! What is T.J. Watt going to do against these backup linemen? People may view this matchup as the Chargers’ talented wide receiving corps vs. what is statistically the worst pass defense in the NFL, but Herbert is going to have zero time to throw the ball. Give me the Steelers with another upset. 

The pick: Steelers +3
Projected score: Steelers 20-16

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

The Packers are favored at home vs. the well-rested reigning Super Bowl champions after dropping a home game to the Panthers?

Nick Sirianni squads are a perfect 4-0 coming off the bye week, and it looked like Saquon Barkley finally got on track with his first 100-yard rushing game of the season in Week 8. A.J. Brown is expected back for this game, and Jalen Hurts has seven passing touchdowns compared to nine incompletions over his last two outings.

I imagine Philly is juiced following the bye week and after all the work Howie Roseman did at the trade deadline. The Eagles have covered the spread in back-to-back games and are 5-3 ATS on the year while Green Bay is 3-5 ATS. Eagles win. 

The pick: Eagles +2.5
Projected score: Eagles 23-21

Other Week 10 picks

Broncos (-8.5) 27-17 over Raiders
Colts 23-20 over Falcons (+6.5)
Texans (+1.5) 13-10 over Jaguars
Bears (-4.5) 20-13 over Giants
Browns (-2.5) 14-10 over Jets
Bills (-9.5) 28-17 over Dolphins
Patriots (+2.5) 28-26 over Buccaneers
Seahawks (-6.5) 35-27 over Cardinals
Rams (-4.5) 30-24 over 49ers