After a winning week 9 and a perfect 5-0 sweep on Thursday Night Football to start Week 10, let’s run it back with my five best bets for Sunday’s action! Best of luck!

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & team props for every matchup this week on the NFL schedule!

Falcons vs Colts: O/U 48.5

The Colts look to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time when they go to Olympiastadion in Berlin, Germany. Indianapolis dropped its second game of the season against Pittsburgh, 27-20, while Atlanta lost a nail biter to New England, 24-23.

The best time to strike is now for Atlanta. The Colts go into a bye week next week and are coming off their second loss of the season, which opens the door for their first back-to-back losses, which is likely inevitable for this team. There should be some regression to the mean for Indianapolis, and it may have started last week.

The Falcons lead the NFL in Cover 3 rate, running it 65% of the time. Daniel Jones has only seen Cover 3 on 25.6% of his dropbacks with the Colts, ranking 26th or sixth-fewest out of 32 quarterbacks. Not to mention, Indianapolis leads the NFL with 75 plays of 15 or more yards this season, while Atlanta’s defense has allowed 40 plays of 15-plus yards, the third-fewest, and 18 plays of 20-plus yards, the second-lowest.

I think Atlanta can limit the big plays from Indianapolis and give the Colts back-to-back losses. It also doesn’t hurt that the Falcons are a perfect 3-0 ATS this season as an underdog compared to 1-4 ATS as a favorite.

Pick: Falcons +6.5 (1.5u), Falcons ML (0.25u)

Ravens (-3.5) at Vikings:

The money train is leaving Baltimore after two straight wins and covers, the Ravens have one of the best remaining schedules after they visit Minnesota.

I can see Baltimore winning and potentially covering eight consecutive games if they get through Minnesota here. Baltimore has allowed a red zone touchdown on only three of 11 attempts over the past two games and get a matchup against a young JJ McCarthy coming off a big road win over Detroit.

This is a sell-high spot on Minnesota and another spot to buy Baltimore stock. The Vikings struggle on third and shorts and besides not getting a pass rush, the Ravens’ secondary is playing much better in terms of completion rate and touchdown rate over the past three games. I like Baltimore to cover the -3.5 at -115 odds. I like the -4 more than -4.5 as this could get steep, but I still say lay it with the Ravens.

Pick: Ravens -3.5 (1 unit)

Ravens are ‘flocking’ ahead of Week 10 vs. Vikings

Trysta Krick and Vaughn Dalzell debate who to pick in Baltimore Ravens vs. Minnesota Vikings matchup. Both teams are coming off impressive victories.

Bills (-9.5) at Dolphins: O/U 50.5

The best thing about this game might be fantasy football implications or the weather. Miami will be beautiful — surprise. The weather will be cloudy and hot bouncing between 80-90 degrees in terms of feel for the game. Perfect for the Buffalo offense to continue this heater of 68 points in the last two games.

Buffalo leads the NFL in time of possession and should win that battle here. Miami’s allowed the most points off turnovers in the NFL and Tua Tagovailoa is coming off another poor performance. The Bills won the first meeting 31-21 at home and missed a field goal in the second quarter and punted twice in the third quarter. Buffalo still scored on five of eight drives with four touchdowns in that win.

In five out of six wins for Buffalo, they scored at least 30 points with last week’s win over Kansas City as the lone Under (28 points). Last year, it was 11 out of 13 in the regular season, so 16 out of the last 19 wins, Buffalo has scored 30 or more points.

I like Buffalo to continue scoring 30-plus points in wins as Josh Allen is 14-2 against Miami in his career, but Buffalo does not score as much or play as well there compared to Buffalo — I say that’s not true and the Bills 30-piece the Dolphins’ defense again.

Pick: Bills Team Total Over 29.5 (1 unit)

Justin Fields O/U 165.5 Passing Yards vs Browns

Jets games involve the second-most rushing yards per game and I think that continues in a battle between Justin Fields and Dillon Gabriel with less than ideal weather in the second-half.

The chance of rain rises to 50% in the second half from 10-20% in the first-half, plus we will see 10-15 MPH winds throughout. The Jets offense is already last in points per drive at home and after Fields is coming off 244 yards against the Bengals, I like this sell-high spot versus a much better Browns defense.

Cleveland has terrific pressure rates and Fields is a bottom-five passer when being pressured. His only hope is the Browns who are 0-4 ATS on the road, play like they have been on the road, but I think Cleveland Is the right side in this game. I like Fields Under 165.5 passing yards and lean the Browns ML, which I might end up betting.

Pick: Justin Fields Under 165.5 Passing Yards (1.5u)

Season Record: 78-49 (61.4%) +23.87 units | 15.59 ROI%
Week 9 Record: 9-5 (64.2%) +3.01 units

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Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)Eric Froton (@CFFroton)Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick)Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)