Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow
Bears!
Wells Fargo equity analyst Ohsung Kwon published the self-explanatory “Why so bearish? Debunking five bear cases” and here are some excerpts,
“1. Liquidity is tight: It was, led by a big TGA [Treasury General Account] refill absorbed by the market. But SOFR [secured overnight finance rate] is largely back to normal, the TGA is at the highest since COVID, and QT is ending. Liquidity conditions should get better. 2. Weak consumer + layoffs: Yet, a Dec cut is only 63 per cent priced in. We expect a cut and a risk-on rally. 3. 10-per-cent-plus sell-off over 1-2 years: That’s the norm. 10-per-cent-or-more corrections occur 0.8 times a year on average 4. Hyperscalers are overspending: We also worry that hyperscalers’ capex is ‘a must’ to stay competitive, which will prolong the capex cycle (and pressure FCF ). But shouldn’t that be great news for AI infra stocks? ASOX [AI semiconductor index] was down as much as 7 per cent from its peak. Buy the dip in AI capex takers – we prefer Power and SMID AI capex beneficiaries. 5. Valuation is too high: Fair, but valuation is only half the equation – the other half is EPS surprise. If EPS grows at 10 per cent per year over the next 5 years (we forecast 10 per cent or more per year in 2025-27E), then SPX should generate 8-per-cent-per-yearr total return for the next 5 years according to our valuation model, or 9500 by year-end 2030”
Labour
BMO senior economist Sal Guatieri identified an important distinction within the domestic labour market,
“The recent rebound in Canadian employment is led by large firms with more than 500 employees. In fact, that’s been the story for a while, with large firms creating a net 592,000 positions this year (on a non-seasonally adjusted basis), while firms with 500 or fewer workers have cut staff by 300,000. Moreover, job gains among large firms are spread across industries, led by education and public administration. The difference in hiring trends may reflect the greater ability of large firms to adjust to tariffs and an uncertain policy environment. This divergence by firm size raises a downside risk. Large firms account for only 20% of total employment. So, unless they keep punching above their weight—or smaller companies ramp up hiring—overall job growth could weaken”
“BMO: “Canadian employment – the big get bigger”” – (excerpt, chart) Bluesky
Top themes
Morgan Stanley quantitative analyst Stephan Kessler updated clients on Morgan’s top investment themes,
“AI & Tech Diffusion. While AI continues to reshape industries, economies, and everyday life, attention is expanding from enablers/infrastructure to downstream adopters. Agentic AI moves into enterprise workflows and monetisation broadens; embodied AI (robots, AVs, drones, space) is likely to advance quickly. Future of Energy. Focus broadens from decarbonisation to capacity and security: AI-driven load growth, LNG globalisation, grid/nuclear/storage upgrades, and wider electrification. As emissions overshoot targets, climate adaptation and resilience models gain relevance. Longevity. Aging demographics reshape demand across healthcare, consumption, and finance. Key debates: AI-enabled care; GLP-1s and adjacent therapies; affordable nutrition; re-skilling older workforces; and rising demand for retirement planning and advice. Multipolar World. Security-driven industrial policy is rewiring trade and supply chains: more local control, dual-sourcing, and export-control compliance. Likely beneficiaries include defense, logistics, and other critical technologies. This theme intersects with the others and amplifies their dispersion”
Bluesky post of the day
New MMI piece: We look at the 3.5 million people in Canada who live in a home that is too small to meet their needs, and how a mismanaged push by governments and urban planners towards densification is at odds with the human right to housing.
Read here: www.missingmiddleini…
— Dr. Mike P. Moffatt (@mikepmoffatt.bsky.social) November 11, 2025 at 7:34 AMDiversion
“‘Most Effective Therapy to Date’ – New Treatment Wipes Out Bladder Cancer in 82% of Patients” – SciTechDaily