The NFL MVP odds have a new favorite. Excuse me, two new favorites.

The familiar two-man battle for MVP between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes completely changed course after Week 10, with both losing their spots atop the odds board. In fact, the Buffalo Bills’ surprising loss in Miami, coupled with Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs only sitting at a modest 5-4, makes for a wide-open MVP race.

In his 17th NFL season, Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (+275) is the new leader for MVP, followed closely by New England Patriots second-year quarterback Drake Maye (+300).

Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (+500) also delivered the season’s best individual rushing performance during an overtime win in Berlin — catapulting his odds from 10th to third in the process. He is now tied with Mahomes.

With five legitimate candidates all still in the MVP race, there’s a lot to go over after a chaotic Week 10.

Live NFL MVP oddsMatthew Stafford makes history to take the lead

A ridiculous heater continued for Stafford during the Rams’ road win in San Francisco. Sunday marked the third consecutive game that Stafford threw four or more touchdown passes with zero interceptions — a new NFL record.

With 20 touchdown passes and no interceptions over his last six games, Stafford maintains control of the current MVP debate. The veteran QB leads the NFL with 25 touchdown passes and has only two interceptions all season. Most importantly, the Rams are 7-2 and well-positioned for a strong seed in the NFC.

Starting at +5000 odds (50-to-1) and 17th on the board, Stafford’s slow rise into MVP frontrunner is one of 2025’s pleasant surprises. Stafford became the ninth player in NFL history to reach 400 career passing touchdowns on Sunday, but he’s never finished higher than eighth in MVP voting. There’s an intriguing narrative building for a decorated Super Bowl-winning quarterback playing the best football of his career.

If Stafford stockpiles enough touchdowns, the Rams are playing enough quality opponents to properly showcase his candidacy. Los Angeles still faces Detroit, Tampa Bay and has two games remaining against Seattle — currently tied with the Rams atop the NFC West.

Drake Maye makes a move up to second

For a brief window on Sunday afternoon, Maye was the new leader for MVP at BetMGM after New England’s notable road win in Tampa Bay. Maye surpassed Allen and Mahomes by rising from +450 odds before Stafford’s scintillating afternoon ultimately dropped Maye to second.

Maye is attempting to become the seventh player in NFL history to win MVP in his second season. The previous six include a mixture of Hall of Famers and two future Canton-bound QBs: Jim Brown, Earl Campbell, Dan Marino, Kurt Warner, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson.

Chad Graff, senior writer for The Athletic covering the New England Patriots, believes Maye is worth watching in the crowded MVP race.

“Maye’s second NFL season has been better than even the most optimistic among us expected, and his MVP candidacy is very much legit,” Graff said. “Maye ranks second in yards per attempt, second in completion percentage over expected and third in expected points added per play. But what’s most impressive is the way he’s totally flipped the reality of the Patriots, a team that went 4-13 each of the last two seasons, and now has a legit shot at the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Oh, and he’s done all that without an elite offensive line or an elite group of receivers or even a good running game.

“Perhaps the biggest thing that could hurt Maye’s MVP campaign is a lack of big games on the schedule that could draw the eye of the nation. The Pats’ next three games are against the Jets, Bengals and Giants, followed by their bye.”

Recent MVP wins from Mahomes (2018) and Jackson (2019) suggest MVP voters aren’t afraid to reward new stars having great seasons. Maye should maintain a strong MVP campaign if the Patriots can keep winning.

Jonathan Taylor states his case to move into a tie for third

In a thrilling overtime win over Atlanta, Taylor rushed for three touchdowns and 244 yards — the most individual rushing yards in a game in 2025 and 19th most in NFL history. For his efforts, Taylor jumped from +3000 odds into the first-tier MVP candidates.

Taylor’s memorable performance was punctuated by an 83-yard TD run. The longest touchdown run of the NFL season gave Taylor the Indianapolis team record for career rushing TDs to surpass legendary Colts back Edgerrin James.

But does Taylor have a credible shot at winning a QB-dominated award?

Incredible stats and record-breaking performances must continue for Taylor to become the first non-quarterback to win MVP since Adrian Peterson’s historic 2012 campaign. For the season, Taylor leads the NFL in rushing yards (1,139), touchdowns (15), rushing first downs (58) and runs of 40 or more yards (four) — all while losing zero fumbles on a league-leading 189 carries. That doesn’t include 30 catches for 260 yards and two touchdowns as a receiver out of the backfield.

Last season saw Eagles running back Saquon Barkley become the ninth player to rush for over 2,000 yards in a season. Barkley also hammered the Rams for 255 rushing yards in one game for a signature performance similar to the one Taylor just produced.

Despite the milestone season with incredible individual games, Barkley finished third in 2024 MVP voting and didn’t receive a single first-place vote out of 49.

Taylor has more rushing touchdowns this season (15) than Barkley did all of last season (13). But, from the recent voting history for MVP, it doesn’t look promising for Taylor to win the award unless he maintains an all-time pace and breaks multiple records.

Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen now out of the lead

Week 10 wasn’t supposed to see any shakeups atop the MVP race. During a bye week, Mahomes (+500) fell from second place, at +350 odds, to tied for third with Taylor.

The shocking upset loss to the Miami Dolphins dropped Allen (+700) from leading the MVP board at +160 to fifth place.

Recency bias certainly played a part in Stafford, Maye and Taylor jumping the two familiar MVP faces. It also shows that Mahomes and Allen have more work to do with a field full of strong contenders.

Kansas City exits its bye with back-to-back games against Denver and Indianapolis. Should the Chiefs beat both AFC playoff hopefuls, Mahomes could restore his odds for the stretch run.

Allen also remains a viable candidate despite already producing more turnovers than last season. Buffalo is capable of a winning streak with Allen producing big numbers at any time. There’s also a looming Week 15 showdown for Allen and Buffalo against Maye and New England that could play a factor for MVP voting.

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold (+1000) climbed to sixth place from +2500 odds and eighth place after an easy win over Arizona. Darnold’s case becomes particularly intriguing if he outduels current MVP leader Stafford and the Rams on the road in Week 11.

After Darnold, the rest of the MVP odds stay mostly the same. Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (+2000) saw a slight bump from +2200 with a solid road win at Green Bay. Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert (+2500) maintained after Sunday night’s home win over Pittsburgh.

A steady climb continues for Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (+2500) on the heels of a Ravens win in Minnesota. The two-time MVP remains the most intriguing second-tier candidate because of Baltimore’s turnaround after a miserable 1-5 start.

Losing to Maye and the Patriots dropped Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield (+2800) from +1600 odds. Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (+2800) is the only other MVP candidate higher than +5000.