What’s at stake in Sunday’s showdown between the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks seems painfully obvious.

Both the Rams and Seahawks are 7-2 and tied atop the NFC West standings, two games ahead of the 49ers. The winner of Sunday’s heavyweight fight at SoFi Stadium will hold a one-game lead in the division with seven weeks remaining. 

The SportsLine Inside the Lines team and Projection Model say the importance of the Los Angeles-Seattle matchup goes well beyond that. In fact—even though there are still eight weeks left in the regular season and even though the Rams and Seahawks still are scheduled to square off in Week 16 in Seattle—the projection model makes the case Sunday’s game is the de facto NFC West championship game.

Both Los Angeles and Seattle enter Week 11 with roughly the same chance to win the division, 48.8% for the Rams and 47.9% for the Seahawks, according to the model. If Los Angeles wins, that number soars to almost 70% for the Rams, while tumbling to 27.5% for Seattle. And if the Seahawks win, Seattle’s chances jumps to 72.1% while L.A.’s probability plummets to 23.9%.

Rams’ chances to …Entering Week 11With winWith lossWin division48.8%69.6%23.9%Make playoffs97.2%100.5%91.8%Earn No. 1 seed26.3%38.8%10.2%Win NFC14.2%17.0%10.6%Win Super Bowl7.4%9.0%5.5%Seahawks’ chances to …Entering Week 11With winWith lossWin division47.9%72.1%27.5%Make playoffs99.0%100.6%95.8%Earn No. 1 seed31.8%50.7%15.5%Win NFC17.9%21.8%14.3%Win Super Bowl9.2%11.2%7.6%

That differential makes Rams-Seahawks the biggest swing game of the NFL season so far with enormous division, NFC and Super Bowl implications.

The teams enter Week 11 as mirror images of each other. Both are on four-game winning streaks with margins of victory averaging more than 15.0 points per game. Both haven’t trailed in a game since the first quarter of Week 6 on Oct. 12. Both are the only teams in the league ranking in the top five in both scoring offense (Seattle: 30.6 points per game; L.A.: 27.9) and scoring defense (Rams: 17.0; Seahawks: 19.1) this season.

Even the head coaches sound like each other.

“Seems like they’re playing great football in all three phases,” Seattle’s Mike Macdonald said of L.A. earlier this week. L.A.’s Sean McVay said of the Seahawks on his coach’s show, “This is a damn good team, and they are complete. They are excellent in all three phases.”

Los Angeles is a 3-point favorite against Seattle.

The SportsLine Inside the Lines team loves both teams. In its simulations, the Seahawks finish with 12.1 wins to the Rams’ 11.9. Those are the most projected wins in the NFC, even more than the other three division leaders: the Eagles (11.8), Buccaneers (11.3) and Lions (11.1).

Those numbers, of course, will change based on the outcome of Sunday’s showdown.

“You can’t help but notice how big-time Seattle’s been,” McVay said. “What a great challenge it’s gonna be.”