Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is among the favorites to win the 2025 NFL MVP in his 17th NFL season, behind 25 touchdowns and two interceptions while leading the NFL at 269.7 passing yards per game. However, the Rams haven’t played many elite defenses this season. That changes during the Week 11 NFL schedule when the Rams play the Seattle Seahawks, who rank sixth in scoring defense and fourth in yards per play. With this tougher matchup, and Stafford being listed at a number even higher than his NFL-leading passing yards average, the SportsLine Machine Learning Model has Stafford Under 278.5 passing yards as one of its top picks for Week 11 NFL prop betting on Sunday.

Along with Stafford’s Under, the model is also backing a pair of Overs in Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. Over 55.5 rushing yards and Steelers wide receiver DK Metcalf Over 53.5 receiving yards in its best bets for Week 11 NFL player props. The Steelers play the Bengals, who are allowing the most yards (426.6 per game) in the NFL this season, as a main reason to play Metcalf’s Over for NFL betting with Week 11 NFL player prop bets. 

Targeting NFL player props is one way to approach Week 11 NFL betting at online sports betting sites. With NFL props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s Machine Learning Model can help you find value to add to your Week 11 NFL picks at various sportsbooks. They can also help new users take advantage of sportsbook promos like the latest Fanatics Sportsbook promo code CBSFAN, which allows new users to bet and get up to $2,000 back in No Sweat Bets in FanCash. 

Built using cutting-edge artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques by SportsLine’s Data Science team, AI Predictions and AI Ratings are generated for each player prop. 

Best Week 11 NFL player prop picks:

Matthew Stafford, Rams, Under 278.5 passing yards (-115)Travis Etienne Jr., Jaguars, Over 55.5 rushing yards (-115)DK Metcalf, Steelers, Over 53.5 receiving yards (-112)

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Matthew Stafford, Rams, Under 278.5 passing yards (-115)

Stafford, at age 37, is having one of the best seasons of his career, leading the NFL in touchdown passes (25) and passing yards per game (269.7) while throwing just two interceptions this year. However, after back-to-back games with at least 280 passing yards against the Saints and 49ers, he’s set to face a significantly tougher defense with the Seahawks ahead on Sunday. Seattle is allowing the fourth-fewest yards per pass (6.4) this season, and has the No. 6 scoring defense (19.1). Davante Adams (oblique) is questionable, and although he’s reportedly likely to play, he’ll likely be less than 100%, which could limit both his and Stafford’s effectiveness. The Seahawks have also held opposing quarterbacks to Under this total in four straight weeks. The model projects 235 passing yards for Stafford on Sunday.

Click here to bet Stafford Under 278.5 passing yards at BetMGM, where new users receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet loses. 

Travis Etienne Jr., Jaguars, Over 55.5 rushing yards (-115)

Etienne has gone Over this number in back-to-back weeks, rushing for 58 yards against the Texans last week after 84 rushing yards against the Raiders the week before. He’s played at least 54% of snaps in all nine games this season, and after some questioned who Jacksonville’s lead back would be entering the season, it’s clear more than halfway through the season that the answer is still Etienne. The Jaguars play the Chargers, who are 26th in the NFL at 4.9 yards per rush allowed, and the model projects Etienne for 77 rushing yards on Sunday.

Click here to bet Etienne Over 55.5 rushing yards at BetMGM, where new users receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet loses. 

DK Metcalf, Steelers, Over 53.5 receiving yards (-112)

The Steelers play the Bengals, who are last in the NFL in multiple defensive categories, including total yards (426.6 yards per game) and yards per play (6.4). The Bengals are 30th in passing yards allowed (260.1 per game) and 28th in yards per pass (7.8). Aaron Rodgers threw for 249 yards and four touchdowns against Cincinnati in their first meeting. Metcalf finished just Under this total with 50 yards, but he’s had at least 50 yards in three of his last five games to finish either Over this total, or right around it. The model projects another strong offensive performance from the Steelers on Sunday, with Metcalf being a featured part of that success, projecting the Pittsburgh WR1 for 62 receiving yards on Sunday.

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Want more Week 11 NFL picks?

You’ve seen the model’s NFL picks for some popular NFL player props for Week 11. Now, get NFL Week 11 projections for every player prop at SportsLine.

Also at SportsLine:

You can also see the model’s best bets for every Week 11 NFL game, including Broncos vs. Chiefs, Packers vs. Giants and Lions vs. Eagles. Finally, SportsLine expert RJ White, who is 110-80-1 (+2813) over his last 191 NFL picks, has locked in multiple Week 11 NFL picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best bets.

Want more huge paydays? The model has also built a five-leg Week 11 NFL parlay that would pay almost 25-1. Check out the model’s Week 11 NFL parlay only at SportsLine. Visit SportsLine to see the parlay.