Updated November 17, 2025 02:26AM
Last January, I rolled out a few (not-so) outrageous predictions for the 2025 racing season.
Like most of us who live and breathe this sport, I can’t resist the annual ritual of trying to predict the winners.
But these days, with Tadej Pogačar flattening everything in sight, there’s not much originality left in saying “Pogi’s going to win again.”
And, pretty much, he did.
Yet predictions are always fun. I’ve always done them, sometimes public, like this one, or among friends with some low-wage bets.
So last winter, rather than trot out a list of predictable predictions, I decided to pedal out onto the proverbial limb and try to sleuth out some of the more outrageous possible outcomes.
So, let’s see how my crystal ball fared against the chaos of another Pogačar-ruled season.
Prediction No. 1: Tom Pidcock stuns the doubters to win the Vuelta a España
Pidcock of Arabia? The 2025 season couldn’t have started better for Pidcock. (Photo: LOIC VENANCE/AFP via Getty Images)
Outcome: 3/5
Well, not too far off on this one.
Maybe I was drinking the Tom Pidcock Kool-Aid a bit too much going into this season, but I had a sense that if and when Pidders fully dedicated himself exclusively to road racing, he could take a significant step up.
And he did in a big way with his surprise move to Q36.5, arguably the best transfer in 2024-25. He finally looked like a rider who had found his home.
Pidcock checked off a lot of boxes in 2025, with his first GC win at the AlUla Tour (OK, not a big race, but a win is a win), a gutsy second at Strade Bianche after going toe-to-toe with Pogačar, and starting and finishing two grand tours in one season.
The big target was the Vuelta. I thought Pidcock might pull off the ultimate shocker and win the race.
How? First, by sneaking away early to gain some time on the favorites and then having the legs and chutzpah to fend everyone off.
Of course, with Jonas Vingegaard racing, it was a non-starter that anyone else could win.
Still, Pidcock surprised and came close with third, a breakthrough performance that sets him up for more in 2026.
Will he ever win a Tour de France? Probably not, but he just might be making my (not-so) outrageous predictions again next season.
Prediction No. 2: Tadej Pogačar barnstorms to Paris-Roubaix
The best showdown of the elite men’s classics in 2025. (Photo: Pim Waslander/Soccrates/Getty Images)
Outcome: 4/5
It’s almost difficult to remember that the notion of Pogačar racing Paris-Roubaix sounded borderline insane.
No legitimate Tour de France contender had decided to dance with the cobbles in their prime since the days of Hinault or LeMond.
The conventional wisdom was — and remains — that the horrors of the Hell of the North are just too dangerous for a 165-pound watt-bomb GC rider in modern racing.
But conventions exist for Pogačar to smash, right?
His spectacular Roubaix debut made for one of the best days of racing in 2025. Only a late wobble kept him from pulling off the impossible.
I am convinced that he could have cracked Mathieu van der Poel on the Carrefour de l’Arbre and gone home with a piece of French granite. MVDP looked like he was on the ropes, and Pogačar appeared to be tightening the vise when he overcooked that corner.
Van der Poel remains the lone rider who can consistently match (and occasionally beat) Pogi head-to-head, though only on favorable terrain. Roubaix is one of them.
Let’s hope for the rematch in 2026. This time, it won’t be so crazy to predict he will win.
Prediction No. 3: Unscathed Chloé Dygert rules the classics
Dygert, shown here at the Rwanda worlds, continues to be impacted by her 2019 crash. (Photo: Dario Belingheri/Getty Images)
Outcome: 2/5
When Chloé Dygert is healthy, few women in the peloton can match her. For pure power and blind-faith conviction, Dygert is in a class of her own.
Two world TT titles and three Olympic medals in team pursuit are a testament to her motor.
After watching her heroic ride in the hellish 2024 Zürich worlds, where she nearly won the rainbow jersey, I wagered that 2025 would be her breakout road campaign after being unshackled from the responsibilities of the track.
On paper, the northern classics should be her playground. She can struggle with positioning in the bunch, so that’s why the attritional nature of the classics plays to her strengths.
It didn’t happen that way. After a solid debut to her season in Australia, with a stage win at the Santos Tour Down Under and a podium at the Surf Coast Classic, the stars did not quite align in the gritty roads of northern Europe.
Sixth at Milan-San Remo and eighth at Paris-Roubaix, however, reveal her classics potential.
Still, considering the horrific near-career-ending crash in 2019, simply seeing her back contesting the sport’s hardest road races is remarkable.
I might have to copy-and-paste this prediction for 2026.
Prediction No. 4: Pauline Ferrand-Prévot delivers a French Tour de France winner
France won its first Tour de France in decades. (Photo: JULIEN DE ROSA/AFP via Getty Images)
Outcome: 5/5
When Pauline Ferrand-Prévot announced after winning gold at the 2024 Paris Olympics in mountain biking that she was targeting the yellow jersey, I knew that she could do it.
That she would do it in her first crack was wonderfully unexpected.
Joining Visma-Lease a Bike was a key move for her yellow jersey ambitions. The team provides all the support and tricks of the trade to win big bike races.
PFP created a firestorm of controversy with he double-win in the French Alps, with rivals complaining that she put performance ahead of health, but she is the consummate pro. She always has been, always will be.
Perhaps only Marianne Vos is as talented and diverse on the bike.
Now predicting she’ll win another yellow in 2026 won’t seem so “out there.”
Prediction No. 5: Primož Roglič wreaks Tour de France revenge
Roglič was a bit of an enigma in 2025. (Photo: Dario Belingheri/Getty Images)
Outcome: 1/5
Well, if you’re going to make outrageous predictions, you have to double down and bet the house on Primož Roglič.
I thought the cycling gods might deliver the ultimate payback in 2025 and pave the way for Roglič to vault into yellow.
Alas, it wasn’t meant to be.
After winning Catalunya and taking pink early in the Giro, there was a glimmer of hope.
I’ve always been a Rogla fan. He’s a wild and wacky racer, and you never really know which version will show up to a race.
After crashing out of the Giro, however, Roglič oddly never seemed fully engaged in the Tour. He never completely blew up, but never packed the diamonds in his legs to enter the frame for the win.
A tepid eighth — at least by his standards — was the best he could muster.
At 36, this might have been Roglič’s last hurrah at the Tour.
With Remco Evenepoel rising and Florian Lipowitz demanding space at Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe, Roglič might be sent packing to the Vuelta in 2026 for a chance to make history.
Next season is just around the corner. What are your (not-so) outrageous predictions for 2026?