Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

As is now becoming tradition, I’ll start the column with a nod to the sadly now dormant “Who am I?” thread in the Forums where someone thought of a real life hockey player or persona, who can be from the past or present, male or female, in the NHL or not, and they give clues to help people guess who it is. You get to enter one guess per clue, and if you guess correctly you think of the next player, so it just keeps going indefinitely. For your enjoyment, here is a “Who am I?” sample. See how many clues it takes for you to guess who I am.

CLUE #1 – I’m a retired North American forward

CLUE #2 – I made my NHL debut at age 21 after four seasons in the WHL, but only one in the AHL; yet I was not in the NHL for good until my age 24 season

CLUE #3 – I played over 1000 NHL games in my career

CLUE #4 – My scoring was pretty consistent, as my scoring rate was within ten points for the majority of my NHL seasons

CLUE #5 – I played for a total of five NHL teams, two of which played with twice, meaning I was a member of the team, went to another team, then ended up playing for them again, and one of the five I played for three separate times

CLUE #6 – I was involved in two very major trades occurring within four months, each of which included at least one future Hall of Famer

CLUE #7 – I became an NHL coach and have coached three NHL teams, two being ones for which I had been a player

CLUE #8 – I was undrafted

CLUE #9 – The teams I played for, in order, were Philadelphia, Toronto, Calgary, Washington, Philadelphia, Washington, Islanders, Philadelphia

CLUE #10 – I rank in the top 10 all time in an NHL stat not pertaining to offense

CLUE #11 – I am currently an NHL coach

CLUE #12 – My initials are C.B.

So, who am I? Hopefully you figured it out. Check the end of the column to confirm, or, if not, to find out who I am. Now onto regularly scheduled Forum Buzz programming. 

Topic #1 – In a 10 Team, Keep 6, H2H – 1 win Yahoo league with categories of G, A, SOG, PPP, FOW, H, B, Wins, GAA, SV%, SHO (4 G starts per week minimum) and rosters of 2C, 2RW, 2LW, 1Ut, 4D, 3G, 6Bench, 2-I/R+, 1NA, a GM has as roster of:
C: Sam Bennett, Shane Pinto, J.G. Pageau C/RW
LW: Leon Draisaitl LW/C, Tim Stutzle LW/C, Kirill Kaprizov, Andrei Svechnikov LW/RW
RW: Jason Robertson RW/LW, Clayton Keller RW/LW, Brandon Hagel RW/LW, Lukas Raymond
D: Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, Charlie McAvoy, Nikita Zadorob, Alexander Romanov
G: Andrei Vasilevskiy, Cam Talbot, Jake Allen, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
I/R+ Rasmus Dahlin

They are pondering a trade of Keller and McAvoy for Nico Hischier, for points and FOW, and Jacob Trouba (stat stuffer). Should they make the deal?

Until Saturday I was prepared to say no for sure, but now it’s less clear. Hischier is very strong in FOW, plus has been a reliable bet for 75-80 point production; but he’s center only eligible on Yahoo, and I see no universe where he gains winger eligibility, making his amazingness at FOW a little less amazing. He might be undervalued though due to being slow out of the gate and on top of that is now the #1 center for New Jersey while Jack Hughes is injured.

As for Trouba, he’s doing great; and the way the Ducks are playing there is a very good chance a rising tide will continue to lift his boat in terms of scoring. Or it might not. It can only get worse, as the Ducks, third worst in G/game last season, are second best for 2024-25. Plus, Trouba’s per game SOG rate is markedly lower than at his peak and his overall IPP is nearly 50%. That tide is all but assured to ebb, both in general and due to the team is shooting 11.6% at 5×5 while he’s on the ice despite his offensive zone starting percentage being below 50%. It’s not a question of if, but when Trouba’s scoring will crater.

McAvoy is producing well, but just as I was set to answer this by saying he’s stayed healthy, he got hurt on Saturday. It would have been astute to try and trade him before that happened. But then, and still now, the key to the deal is Keller. Let’s pause to realize how great Keller was the past two seasons. He cumulatively had the sixth most PPPts among forwards despite only the 19th most PPTOI. That is jaw dropping. In fact, his 67 cumulative PPPts represents a point on 61% of all his team’s PPGs over the past two seasons. Not 61% of PPGs with him on the ice –61% of all their PPGs. With him on the ice, that rises to 82.5% (i.e., 67 PPPts on 86). I realize he’s been slower out of the gate than expected; however, his IPPs are far lower than his norms and only 30% of his assists have been secondary, so it’s only a matter of time until he rises again, perhaps to even greater heights than the past two seasons.

Fantasy hockey is amazing in that had I answered this question 48 hours ago my advice would’ve been completely different. But with the injuries to McAvoy and Hughes, has this unfair trade suddenly become fair? I’m not a fan of selling low on Keller and, on top of that, buying high on Trouba; however, Hischier’s value just spiked for at least two months. So if Keller is definitely not going to be a keeper for this team, maybe this is a deal to make despite mere days ago it being completely unreasonable.

Topic #2 – In a 12 team, keep 5 league with skater categories of G, A, PPPts, SOW, FOW, HIT, BLK, a team has the following players on its roster:

C: Nick Suzuki, Sebastian Aho, Leo Carlsson, Wyatt Johnston

W: Martin Necas, Nikita Kucherov, Mitch Marner, Andrei Svechnikov, Evander Kane, Juraj Slafkovsky, Dmitri Voronkov

D: Miro Heiskanen, Thomas Harley, Zeev Buium, Luke Hughes, Nikita Zadorov

They have been offered one of Victor Hedman and Adam Fox, plus one of Logan Cooley, Trevor Zegras, or Troy Terry for Carlsson. Should they consider making a deal, and, if so, for which combination of players?

By my count, that’s 16 skaters in a 12 person league, meaning under 200 owned. This is an impressive group, and I’d guess well above average for the league. But that’s both a good news and bad news situation. It’s good in that it gives this team a better chance to win; however, it’s bad in that only five can be kept. And while this team is trying to stay strong to be able to win, many other teams will be making deals to focus solely on having the best five keepers.

Alos, the fact there are only five keepers is very significant. Assuming Carlsson’s production doesn’t suddenly nosedive, he would make the cut as a keeper, joining, I’d assume, Kucherov plus three of Aho, Johnston, Necas, and Marner, or, if there’s a desire to keep a d-man, likely Heiskanen. So none of the players coming to the team would be 100% assured keepers. Maybe Hedman, Fox or Cooley could be; however, I think probably not in view of the other choices.

Is it possible though that the trade still makes sense, due to giving this team a better chance to win? Consider that keeping five out of 16 is a not a huge percentage, such that although if a team has amazing keepers they could have a leg up on other teams, I can’t see how it would make them such a favorite as to not have other teams catch up via the draft. So this team can afford to play for the win. But if this team was to get one of these forwards and one of these defensemen, would it give them a much better team than now? I’d say yes at D, given Fox or Hedman over Buium or Hughes, neither of whom would be keepers. And probably at forward as well, with one of the three versus Voronkov or Svechnikov.

So the question boils down to whether a better chance to win is worth parting with Carlsson, who has exploded and, if this is not short term unsustainable production, might have already become an elite player? My take is I think this team can win without making this deal, and I’d hate to lose Carlsson and then not win. So in the end it’s closer than I’d have thought, but I’d not make the deal in view of the totality of circumstances.

Topic #3 – In a 12 Team, Weekly H2H, Daily Starts (3C, 3LW, 3RW, 6D, 2G) league with categories being G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, SOG, FW, HIT, GS, W, L, GAA, SA, SV, SV%, SHO, a GM has the following roster:

C – Mark Scheifele, John Tavares, Vincent Trocheck, Evgeni Malkin
LW – Brady Tkachuk, Quinton Byfield, Pavel Dorofeyev, Tyson Foerster
RW – Matthew Tkachuk, J.T. Miller, Rickard Rakell, Brock Boeser, Arseny Gritsyuk, Tyler Toffolli
D – Rasmus Dahlin, Roman Josi, Adam Fox, Lane Hutson, Alexander Nikishin, Shane Gostisbehere
G – Ilya Sorokin, Juuse Saros, Linus Ullmark

Another GM keeps inquiring about Hutson and is dangling Yaroslav Askarov. With Hutson not being at his best in multicat banger leagues, and goalie values being very high in this league, is this a deal worth considering?

Certainly there is a lot of emphasis on goalies, with nearly as many goalie categories for just two goalie starters as skater categories for 15 skater starters. So I can see the temptation in general, plus since Askarov, after a very shaky start to the season, has looked fantastic of late. Still, this is a situation where the contemplated deal might be objectively reasonable, but not one to make, at least not straight up.

For one, although Hutson is indeed not shooting much, plus only getting a hit every other game, he is blocking plenty of shots. And the key to always remember is shots, hits and blocks can be found via other players in the aggregate, whereas points are a precious commodity, with the number of defensemen who can produce like Hutson already has being very limited.

It is true that Askarov could now be turning a corner toward becoming not just an everyday starter but a top tier one. Still, let’s not forget Askarov looked pretty darn good at the start of last season, before coming back to earth. In other words, he is rightfully valued highly because of what he could become, plus the emphasis on goalies in this league and him being on a team that figures to be a powerhouse very soon. But the key word in that sentence is “could.”

Don’t get me wrong – I think that Hutson is not untouchable. His name value is huge due to the team for which he plays and his stellar rookie season, with many are placing him the same top tier as Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar, which is at best premature and at worst just plain wrong.

But Hutson’s name value means he has high trade value, and definitely higher than Askarov straight up. For this deal to be made, another player coming and going would need to occur to tilt the scales more toward the Hutson side. Consider adding Malkin, who has looked like he’s turned back the clock thus far, but seemingly it will only be a matter of time before he starts to once again show his age. Hutson and Malkin for Askarov and perhaps a younger center would be a smart deal, as all the centers on this team are north of age 30.

Topic #4 – A 16 team league is switching from eight keepers who are either age 25 or older or who have played 250+ NHL games and eight keepers who are under both thresholds, to six of the former and nine of the latter. As of now, a GM’s projected keepers would be Sidney Crosby, Mikko Rantanen, Jesper Bratt, Cole Caufield, JJ Peterka and Shane Gostisbehere for the six, and Lane Hutson, Logan Stankoven, Mavrik Bourque, Tyson Foerster, Jonathan Lekkerimaki, Cole Hutson, Tristan Luneau, Brad Lambert, and one TBD for the nine. They do not see a path to victory this season, and are wondering if it might be the right time to trade Crosby. They could possibly get Jack Hughes and Luke Hughes for him or Brayden Point or Luke Hughes. Should they do the deal?

I’ll keep it simple – if there is a chance to turn Crosby into Jack Hughes in this league, you do it, and that is even after Hughes got hurt yet again. Crosby is a special player and could keep thriving for several more seasons. The GM is concerned if Crosby is traded – say to the Avs or Habs – he could explode. I realize this has been an often-debated topic in the DobberHockey Forums, but I do not see a universe where Crosby leaves Pittsburgh. His idol Mario Lemieux is still there, and Crosby is poised to become the all-time leading scorer who played for just one team. Crosby has done and won it all, so I don’t see why he’d leave. It’s not like Ray Bourque for the Bruins, who wanted to win a Cup, or Daniel Alfredsson or Mike Modano who each played a final season for another team to extend their careers. Crosby seemingly has nothing to gain, or perhaps if he has does, it strikes me as less than he’d stand to lose.

Also, even if Crosby gets traded to one of those teams, who’s to say he’d thrive? More likely he’d take on a lesser role, as Colorado has Nathan MacKinnon and Montreal Nick Suzuki. I don’t see how Crosby displaces either of them as #1 center. I think it’s safe to say that Crosby’s upside is 100 points, but likely closer to 90, which is where he’s seemed to have settled.

Jack Hughes, on the other hand, has a 95-point floor. Yes, he has missed 22 games in each of the last two seasons and will yet again due to his recent injury. But this injury has nothing to do with his prior ones. Also, each time he’s come back and picked up where he left off in terms of top production. And given his age and trajectory, he’s likely not close to being maxed out as far as scoring, since we’ve yet to see what he can do over a full season again. If I can get a player who is more than a decade younger than another, and who, if he remains healthy, has little to no chance of being outpointed by the other, that’s a deal I’m making for sure. And if Luke Hughes comes as a throw in, all the better.

Does Point merit consideration over Hughes? Not in my book. Point’s SH% is far lower than his norm, but arguably for several seasons it was far higher than it should’ve been. And even when he was shooting north of 20%, his scoring was dropping. Let’s also not forget he was barely a 70-point player when Nikita Kucherov missed extended time. Point is certainly a solid player, but he has been made to seem far better because of being tethered to Kucherov. Or to put it another way, he’s been “situationally great” as opposed to just plain great, making him a passenger type of player. And that is all well and good as long as the situation continues, which so far it has; but if Point continues to falter, who’s to say he keeps his plum gig always alongside Kucherov? I don’t see a universe where Point would be better to get in return than Jack Hughes.

In short, trading Crosby might seem scary; however, one must look at Crosby as he is now and realistically will be. Don’t fall into a trap of worrying he could rise again to prior heights, nor that if – and it is very much an if – he is traded to a top team that he’d do even better, as there is as much, if not more, of a chance he’d do worse.

Topic #5 – What’s to make of Cam York? Is he officially for real? Or will Jamie Drysdale, for whom the Flyers paid a huge price, going to continue to get chances to unseat York?

What’s unfolding in 2025-26 with the Flyers reminds me of what happened in 2024-25 with the Ducks. Most everyone figured one of the “golden boys” in Oren Zellweger or Pavel Mintyukov would become the top d-man for Anaheim. But in comes Jackson LaCombe, both older and far less highly touted versus the others to seize the reins and now looks to be entrenched.

Make no mistake – the Flyers had grand plans for Drysdale; however, between his injuries and his failure to make a mark when actually in the line-up, the role of top d-man in Philly remained unoccupied long enough for York to have now seemingly seized it. But has he done enough to be entrenched? Or could his “spot” still be at risk. The Flyers did show confidence in York by inking him to a 5 year $25M contract prior to the season; but, as we’ve seen with other d-men of late, $5M is not what it used to be, and arguably not enough to price him into a top spot.

And looking at York’s numbers, there are reasons to fear his early season success might not be sustainable. For starters, he’s averaging 0.6 SOG per game. Or to put it another way, if he plays 82 games and stays at the same SOG pace, he’d have 50 SOG as season’s end. And going back to when SOG was first kept as a stat on nhl.com over 50 years ago, the highest point total for any defensemen who played in 70+ games but finished with 55 or fewer SOG was……29 points. And even if we raise the SOG total to 70, since 2000-01 the highest point total for a defenseman was 40, and there was only one other instance of a d-man even scoring 35 points.

The small silver lining is York started with two SOG in his first seven games, meaning that since then he’s been close to one per game. But if we raise the SOG threshold to 85, then we get one instance of 45 points since 2000-01, and a total of three of 35+ points. So York’s scoring pace, given his reluctance to shoot, seems wholly unsustainable. York also has been on the ice for eight PPGs and had a point on six of them. That would be far too high a percentage even for a top echelon d-man; but for an unproven player like York, it’s all the more unsustainably high. His overall IPP of 50% is also not sustainable, though a bit less glaring.

Adding all of these together suggests York is overachieving in a major way. Even with the points he’s banked, I find it almost impossible to envision him finishing with even a point per every other game scoring rate. There’s also the real risk that as he comes back to earth he loses his PP1 gig, which would really eat away at his scoring.

In fantasy, looks can be deceiving. And in the case of York, they most definitely are. If you own him in a league, I’d look to cash in as soon as possible.

Topic #6 – In a ten team, keep 20 league with 24 roster spots and 3 IR, and daily start with lineups of 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 5D, 2G, 1UTIL and categories of G,A,PTS, +/-, PIM, PPA, PPG, D PTS, W, SV, SV%, a team has the following roster:
C- Auston Matthews, Dylan Larkin, Nathan MacKinnon, Mark Scheifele, Tomas Hertl
RW- Mitch Marner, Valeri Nichushkin, Brock Boeser
LW- Alex DeBrincat, Jake Guentzel, Artturi Lehkonen, Alex Ovechkin, Artemi Panarin, Pavel Zacha(C)
D- Jake Sanderson, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Seth Jones, Dmitri Orlov, Kris Letang
G- Jake Oettinger, Filip Gustavsson, Joran Binnington, Carter Hart, Arturs Silovs

They could possibly trade Hertl for Roope Hintz. Should they?

In their post, the GM said they’d hoped Hertl would play with Jack Eichel, but thus far it’s been Marner. Well, what about the fact they have Marner too? I realize the Knights have been a middle of the pack offense; but before Mark Stone got hurt, they were scoring in droves. And although Stone might not be back for a while, the idea of covering one’s bases with both Marner and Hertl seems enticing, especially when no matter what both will be on PP1.

What about Hintz? He too is on PP1, which, unlike during the Pete DeBoer regime, actually is a real PP1 in terms of taking the ice for two-thirds or more of a game. And when it comes to even strength, Hintz has been alongside one or more of Dallas’ top players. Yet his TOI is 18:10 per game, versus over 20 minutes for Jason Robertson and over 21 for Mikko Rantanen and Wyatt Johnston. Hintz is over a point per game; however, that is largely due to his circumstances, as his overall IPP, even after a three point game the night before I’m writing this, is 59.3% and on the PP it’s 57.1%. There’s no sugarcoating it – those are lousy, and lower than what even an average forward should be getting. Now in fairness, only three of his 12 assists have been secondary, so that balances things a little, as does Hintz only shooting 9.3%, versus a career rate of 16.4%. But the Stars are nevertheless shooting 13.3% at 5xt5 with Hintz on the ice, or well above the very consistent 10.8%-11.2% its been in four of the last five seasons. In two of those seasons, Hintz was a point per game player; but the difference is his IPPs were better and the Stars didn’t also prominently feature Johnston and Rantanen like they do now. 

The conclusion is that Hintz likely is not producing much higher than he should, given his roles and his low secondary assist and SH%. But his IPPs being low suggest he has become less of a driver of offense, and more of a passenger. The good news for him is he is still on PP1 and a scoring line, plus makes $8.5M per season, likely suggesting his “spot” is safe. So long story short, he is likely a point per game player when all is said and done.

What about Hertl? Well, he’s never been a point per gamer – not once. He’s also three years older than Hintz. And like Hintz, Hertl is shooting more; however, his SH% is not down. His IPPs, however, are, and by a lot. They might not rise to what they were when he was on some bad San Jose teams; however, they cannot stay at 56.5% overall and 36.4% on the PP, as those are too low in view of his many years of data. One key piece of data is he’s starting 68.4% of his shifts in the offensive zone. That is sky high for him, and could drop.

All things considered, it seems like moving Hertl for Hintz would make sense. Hintz is more of a passenger now than he was previously; however, he’s younger and does appear to have a point per game floor, and again that is a mark Hertl has yet to hit. I would do this deal.

************

THE ANSWER TO WHO THE PLAYER IS……….Craig Berube!

************

Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of my monthly mailbag still has room for more questions, which you can send me by either private messaging “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or emailing [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.