The Best Supporting Actor category at the 2026 Oscars has received a monstrous shakeup.
Jacob Elordi, who’s earning raves for playing Frankenstein‘s creature in Guillermo del Toro’s remake of Mary Shelley’s classic horror story, has now jumped into Gold Derby’s Top 5. His gain comes at Adam Sandler‘s expense, as the comedian and actor is now down in sixth place for Jay Kelly for his portrayal of Ron, the manager of a famous actor (George Clooney), who travels with him through Europe.
Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) still leads the Best Supporting Actor race with a 94 percent chance of being nominated, followed by Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value) at 93 percent, Paul Mescal (Hamnet) at 92 percent, Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another) at 72 percent, and now Elordi at 52 percent. Elordi is actually up 9 percent in the Oscar category from last week, while Sandler is down 6 percent.
Best Picture Best Director Best Actress Best Actor Best Supporting Actress Best Supporting Actor Best Adapted Screenplay Best Original Screenplay Best Casting Best Cinematography Best Costume Design Best Film Editing Best Makeup and Hairstyling Best Production Design Best Score Best Sound Best Visual Effects Best Animated Feature Best International Film
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Josh O’Connor
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HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA – MARCH 20: Gabriel Bassoattends the Los Angeles premiere of Netflix’s “The Night Agent” at TUDUM Theater on March 20, 2023 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Matt Winkelmeyer/Getty Images)
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Chiwetel Ejiofor photographed at the Variety Sundance Studio in Park City, UT.
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Benjamin Pajak
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Richard E Grant
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Michael Shannon
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Andy Samberg
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Stephen Graham
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Josh Brolin
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Andrew Scott
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LONDON, ENGLAND – JUNE 28: Jack Lowden attends the Into Film Awards 2022 at Odeon Luxe Leicester Square on June 28, 2022 in London, England. (Photo by Eamonn M. McCormack/Getty Images)
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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – FEBRUARY 27: Lewis Pullman attends the 25th Annual Costume Designers Guild Awards at Fairmont Century Plaza on February 27, 2023 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Monica Schipper/Getty Images)
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Conan O’Brien
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Carla Buelow for Variety
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Dustin Hoffman
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Albert Brooks
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Colman Domingo
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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 19: (L-R) Dacre Montgomery and Olivia Pollock attend 26th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards at The Shrine Auditorium on January 19, 2020 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Leon Bennett/Getty Images)
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Simon Russell Beale
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NEW YORK, NEW YORK – SEPTEMBER 28: Jacob Anderson attends AMC Networks Summit 2022 at 74Wythe on September 28, 2022 in New York City. (Photo by Craig Barritt/Getty Images for AMC Networks)
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VENICE, ITALY – SEPTEMBER 08: Abel Ferrara arrives at the 78th Venice International Film Festival on September 08, 2021 in Venice, Italy. (Photo by Marc Piasecki/Getty Images)
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NEW YORK, NEW YORK – MAY 30: Michael Stuhlbarg attends the “Grey House” Broadway opening night at Lyceum Theatre on May 30, 2023 in New York City.
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Liev Schreiber
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WESTWOOD, CALIFORNIA – AUGUST 20: Nick Nolte attends the LA Premiere of Lionsgate’s “Angel Has Fallen” at Regency Village Theatre on August 20, 2019 in Westwood, California. (Photo by Amy Sussman/Getty Images)
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LONDON, ENGLAND – OCTOBER 15: Christoph Waltz attends the “Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio” World Premiere, during the 66th BFI London Film Festival at The Royal Festival Hall on October 15, 2022 in London, England. (Photo by Gareth Cattermole/Gareth Cattermole/Getty Images for BFI)
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Tracy Letts
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CANNES, FRANCE – MAY 21: Ebrahim Azizi, Hadis Pakbaten, Jafar Panahi, Delnaz Najafi, Majid Panahi, Maryam Afsharimovahed and Vahid Mobasseri during the “Un Simple Accident” photocall at the 78th annual Cannes Film Festival at Palais des Festivals on May 21, 2025 in Cannes, France. (Photo by Pascal Le Segretain/Getty Images)
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Elordi started skyrocketing in the odds as soon as Frankenstein arrived on Netflix on Nov. 7 — three weeks after the film select theaters on Oct. 17. If the predictions bear out, the Australian actor’s performance as the misunderstood creation of Dr. Victor Frankenstein (Oscar Isaac) would be one of the few to compete at the Oscars for playing a monster. One actor who didn’t suffer from that bias was Fredric March, who won the 1931 Best Actor prize as the titular dual role in Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde; he tied with Wallace Beery for The Champ.
Jay Kelly still hasn’t been widely seen, which might be suppressing support for Sandler. The film began a limited release on Nov. 14, ahead of its grand debut on Netflix on Dec. 5. Comedians-turned-actors occasionally do win Oscars — just look at Robin Williams (Good Will Hunting), Mo’Nique (Precious), and Whoopi Goldberg (Ghost). Sandler, who many, including Timothée Chalamet, feel was unjustly overlooked for Uncut Gems, still has a chance to make that list.
Both Elordi and Sandler recently received nominations at the Gotham Awards in that organization’s non-gendered Best Supporting Performance category. The Gothams were the first to announce their noms for this winter season, with several more nomination opportunities upcoming on the awards calendar, including the Critics Choice (Dec. 5), Golden Globes (Dec. 8), and Actor Awards (Jan. 7).
At the Gotham Awards, Elordi is currently ranks in fourth place to win, while Sandler is in sixth. The other nominees, in descending odds order, are: Stellan Skarsgård, Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Andrew Scott (Blue Moon), Benicio Del Toro, Alexander Skarsgård (Pillion), and Indya Moore (Father, Mother, Sister, Brother).
Best Supporting Performance
1.
Stellan Skarsgård
Sentimental Value
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Teyana Taylor
One Battle After Another
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Jacob Elordi
Frankenstein
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Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas
Sentimental Value
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Benicio del Toro
One Battle After Another
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Alexander Skarsgard
Pillion
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Indya Moore
Father, Mother, Sister, Brother
The Oscar nominations will be announced Jan. 22.
Make or update your Gold Derby predictions in 19 major categories.