Canola fields flower near Blaine Lake, Sask. Canada is a world leader in canola production.David Stobbe/Reuters
David Dzisiak is an advisor for agriculture and food technology companies and a director of Protein Industries Canada.
Frank Hart is a former Saskatchewan deputy minister of economic development and trade, chief executive of Crown Investment Corp. and president of Greystone Managed Investments.
Prime Minister Mark Carney has set a goal for Canada to more than double exports away from the United States over the next decade, meaning exports to other countries will need to grow by $132-billion annually by 2035. Mr. Carney speaks of Canada as an “unabashed” energy superpower. Canada can also be an agriculture and food superpower – and that reality deserves prominence in our national economic strategy.
In 2024, our agricultural and food exports exceeded $100-billion, reaching more than 200 countries. With the right policy focus, agriculture, aquaculture and value-added ingredients can add up to $45-billion to annual GDP over the next decade.
Can Canada really double non-U.S. exports in a decade?
Our commodity crops frequently become entangled in geopolitical disputes, as is currently the case with canola in China and peas in India. Building a national strategy that moves us beyond exporting commodities and creating more value-added food ingredient production helps avoid those issues.
The world is increasingly in need of more of Canada’s food production capacity. Food-import dependency is rising across much of Asia and Africa as those countries’ populations and incomes grow faster than their domestic food production. By 2050, the global middle class is expected to expand by approximately two billion people.
According to Engel’s Law, rising incomes reshape dietary preferences and food spending. Newly wealthy citizens first seek a better diet, shifting from cheaper starch-based foods to higher-protein and specialty items. This presents a compelling business case for Canada. The plant protein market in Southeast Asia alone is projected to reach more than $25-billion by 2033.
A warmer climate will lengthen Canada’s growing season, and the additional atmospheric carbon can boost crop yields. Coincidentally, in 2025, the prairies will produce the largest crop ever. Climate change, on the other hand, is expected to negatively impact food production in countries where the majority of the middle-class population growth is occurring. Developing Canada’s food technology industry, therefore, is not only crucial to food security and diversifying our trade but will also position Canada to play an increasingly influential role.
Canada can find new buyers for $12-billion in food exports shipped to U.S., report says
Shifting away from a commodity-export paradigm towards greater value-added processing at home must be viewed as an industrial strategy encompassing innovation, intellectual property, capital investment and job creation. The business case for adding $50-billion in GDP from agriculture and food has been well studied by several groups, including the Royal Bank of Canada, the Arrell Food Institute, the Canadian Agri-Food Policy Institute and Protein Industries Canada.
Canada is a world leader in producing pulse crops and canola, which contain high-quality, non-allergenic proteins and valuable co-products, such as the protein and starch extracted from a fava bean. Canada should process these crops domestically and add value here, rather than outsourcing the process to a foreign buyer. In processing, the economic value-add can be five to ten times that of the commodity trade.
The challenge is attracting capital to help young companies grow. Historically, agriculture and crop processing have not been viewed as a place to invest private capital. Grain elevators and canola mills require significant capital outlays and run on thin margins.
In 2019, the federal government launched Protein Industries Canada, one of five global innovation clusters. The organization has provided leadership and facilitated investments of more than $700-million in food and agriculture innovation in Canada, which is a great head start. This has advanced the development of higher-quality crops and innovative processing technologies for proteins, flours and starches, which serve as new ingredients for global food products.
Opinion: Doubling non-U.S. exports is hard. Does Carney really have the courage for it?
This year’s federal budget has introduced several measures to mitigate investment risk, including tax incentives. Existing programs at the Business Development Bank of Canada or the Canadian Infrastructure Bank could be of great help; however, the existing qualification criteria currently target large projects, not small companies looking to scale production.
The government must do more. A 2024 study conducted by Ernst & Young determined that the payback for the federal treasury from investment tax credits in support of increased food processing investments was 219 per cent over 10 years, resulting from tax revenues associated with the increased GDP and employment impacts. Expanding domestic food processing could create approximately 17,000 new jobs. Aggressive incentives will help attract risk capital and facilitate scaling young companies into global suppliers. These facilities, once built, can’t be relocated to another country. However, if we don’t build them here, another country will, taking the economic advantage from us.
We also need the government to think more about agriculture as part of Canada’s economic strategy. Polling by Abacus Data for Protein Industries Canada shows that nine in 10 Canadians agree that agriculture and food production are key to the country’s economic future. Unlike other industries that require lengthy regulatory approvals, expensive infrastructure and complex stakeholder agreements, food processing facilities can be scaled relatively quickly. Our farms have the lowest carbon footprint among developed countries. Canada has a generational opportunity to convert its agricultural advantage into a high-value, globally competitive industry.