Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions

Following its highly anticipated Investor Day event, TD Cowen analyst Sean Steuart thinks Northland Power Inc.’s (NPI-T) slower relative growth outlook than the Street expected supports a valuation discount, leading him to downgrade his recommendation for its shares to “hold” from “buy” previously.

“Target 6-per-cent free cash flow per share CAGR [compound annual growth rate] over the next five years – from a low starting point – is below both prior consensus expectations and the target growth rates of peers,” he said. “Beyond current construction projects, NPI is taking a measured approach to organic expansion, reflecting higher IRR hurdles.”

The event came in the wake of a surprise 40-per-cent cut in its dividend announced in tandem with third-quarter results last week. That has led to a drop in share price of almost 30 per cent.

“We initially attributed most of the rationale for the cut in dividend to providing more funding flexibility, but [Thursday’s] presentation made it clear that the sell-side, including us, had overly optimistic growth forecasts through 2027.”

“The 40-per-cent dividend cut and relatively modest midterm FCF/share growth rate guidance (6 per cent through 2030) were negative surprises. We believe that management is sending appropriate signals regarding a measured approach to expansion, beyond the current construction pipeline, but a relatively conservative organic growth path corresponds with an appropriate valuation discount, in our view. Management remains focused on asset-base expansion, but we believe that starting a share buyback program would send a positive message to investors that value is not exclusive to development projects.”

Mr. Steuart lowered his free cash flow per share estimates for 2026 and 2027 (adjusted for asset contributions/ timing and higher interest/corporate costs). That led him to cut his target for Northland shares to $19 from $22. The average is $24.25.

“After Thursday’s decline [of 2.1 per cent], NPI is trading at 8.4 times 2027E TEV/EBITDA vs. an average of 9.7 times for its Canadian and international IPP peers,” he added. “We believe that NPI’s discount is warranted by tempered organic growth prospects. Although not factored into our target price, we cannot rule out the possibility of strategic players showing interest in NPI at current valuation levels.”

Elsewhere, other analysts making target revisions include:

* Scotia Capital’s Robert Hope to $23 from $24 with a “sector perform” rating.

“The presentation highlighted how increasing electricity demand is requiring new capacity to be constructed, which is presenting opportunities for Northland,” said Mr. Hope. “The management team added clarity on their key areas (geography, technology) of focus for capital allocation over the next few years. Additional clarity was provided on the recent 40-per-cent dividend cut and how the lower levels better position the company to grow. While our EBITDA estimates are largely unchanged, we have re-calibrated our distributable cash flow estimates lower. The lower cash flow reduces our target price by $1 to $23. Northland is currently trading at 7.7 times 2027 estimated EV/EBITDA (based on recent trading), well below our target multiple of 9.1 times. This implies a healthy amount of valuation expansion and share price returns, though we believe the shares could be range-bound until there is greater visibility on the offshore wind projects entering service in H2/26.”

* ATB Capital Markets’ Nate Heywood to $23 from $26 with an “outperform” rating,.

“The presentation highlighted NPI’s refined focus to continue growth in core markets and a growth outlook through 2030. Core markets include both Canada and Europe, with Europe consisting of Poland, Spain and the UK. Southeast Asia is no longer a point of focus through 2030, but fundamentals remain strong through the 2030s which could bring it back in favour. The growth portfolio consists of 2.2GW under construction and ~9.2GW of unsanctioned projects, 0.4GW are late-stage, which includes today’s announced acquisition of an aggregate 300MW of battery projects in Poland. Management also illustrated ongoing progress of its more technology-agnostic approach, highlighting a mid-stage 120MW natural gas peaker project in Alberta (Collisard). The comprehensive 2030 outlook included plans to add 1.4GW-1.8GW of incremental capacity and capital requirements of ~$5.8bn-$6.6bn and FCF guidance of $1.55-$1.75 per share (6-per-cent CAGR from 2025 guidance midpoint). Growth spending includes a significant proportion of project debt and some partner equity, but management has also flagged potential for monetizations to fund a portion of its expected $0.9-billion equity component. The FCF outlook is notably softer than our previous expectations through our forecast window despite expected additions of $1.25 per share from new growth projects (~$0.82 from Hai Long, Baltic Power and Jurassic BESS), with impacts from interest, hedges, taxes, PPA step-downs and potential dispositions, among other items,” said Mr. Heywood.

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After gold and silver producers delivered a “very strong” third quarter, “supported by record commodity prices, expanding margins, and increasing FCF,” equity analysts at TD Cowen are now expecting “even better” results in the current quarter with gold prices continuing to rise.

“Q3 was a strong quarter for the sector with 25 out of 32 companies beating consensus on EPS,” analysts Steven Green, Wayne Lam and Derick Ma said. “Overall production was just modestly ahead of expectations and costs were slightly higher, largely due to cost creep as cost escalators tied to gold price kick in.

“Producer discipline continues to drive record margins. Gold averaged $3,460/oz in Q3, a 5.3-per-cent increase quarter-over-quarter. The gold price Q3-to-date is averaging $4,054, approximately 17 per cent above the Q3 average. AISC [all-in sustaining cost] margins increased to another record high of 54 per cent in Q3, up from 52 per cent in Q2 and well above the five-year average of 36 per cent. Producers continue strong execution this cycle, prioritizing balance sheet strength and capital returns over lower margin ounces or capital intensive expansion. Record free cash flow generation. Our producer coverage quarterly FCF was $6.4-billion in Q3, a 56-per-cent increase quarter-over-quarter from $4.1-billion in Q2/25. We expect FCF to continue to grow in Q4 supported by stronger gold price and relatively steady capital deployment.”

In a research report released late Thursday, the analysts think free cash flow and capital returns will remain a focus for investors, “and along with ongoing sector consolidation, should lead to improving multiples in our view.”

“Capital returns continue to gain momentum,” they said. “Senior producers under our coverage deployed $1.7-billion in buybacks in Q3, up 13 per cent from Q2 ($1.5-billion). Capital return announcements in Q3 further strengthened sector sentiment: Barrick approved an additional $500-million in buybacks and raised its dividend by 25 per cent; Kinross increased its buyback allocation by 20 per cent (to $600-million) and lifted its dividend by 17 per cent; Lundin Gold distributed 100 per cent of normalized FCF through its dividend framework; and IMG approved a new NCIB.

“M&A activity picking up; recent deals include New Gold/Coeur, Fresnillo/Probe — as well as divestment of assets like Hemlo, Tongon, AGI’s Turkish projects. In general, the markets have been receptive to M&A. We expect M&A to remain active, with potential targets in our view include Artemis, IMG, CG, and Torex.”

The analysts made a series of target price adjustments for stocks in their coverage universe. Their changes included:

Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI-T, “buy”) to $55 from $56. The average on the Street is $61.27.Artemis Gold Inc. (ARTG-T, “buy”) to $43 from $44. Average: $46.47.B2 Gold Corp. (BTO-T, “hold”) to $7.50 from $8. Average: $7.97.Eldorado Gold Corp. (EGO-N/ELD-T, “hold”) to US$31 from US$33. Average: US$36.40.Endeavour Mining PLC (EDV-T, “buy”) to $73 from $72. Average: $74.32.New Gold Inc. (NGD-N/NGD-T, “hold”) to US$7.50 from US$7. Average: US$8.21.SSR Mining Inc. (SSRM-T, “hold”) to $33 from $35. Average: $34.28.Torex Gold Resources Inc. (TXG-T, “buy”) to $78 from $77. Average: $79.25.

“Our top picks are Agnico-Eagle and Barrick among the large caps; IAMGOLD, Equinox, and K92 among the SMID caps; and Royal Gold among the royalties,” the analysts said.

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TD Cowen analyst Craig Hutchison expects Capstone Copper Corp. (CS-T) to deliver record production and EBITDA next year “driven by operational improvements across its portfolio.”

“Higher production is expected to coincide with our expectation for a tight copper market driven by supply constraints,” he added. “Beyond 2026, we see lowrisk production growth from its flagship Mantoverde asset in 2027, along with longer-term growth potential from Santo Domingo.”

Pointing to its “strong copper leverage in a tight market,” he named it his “best idea” for 2026 in a client note released Friday.

“Capstone has the second-highest torque to copper in our coverage universe, with copper expected to drive more than 90 per cent of its revenue through 2028,” said Mr. Hutchison. “We anticipate supply-driven deficits in 2026 resulting in copper prices of $5.25/lb next year propelling record EBITDA. Furthermore, with several upcoming catalysts, a solid growth pipeline in low-risk jurisdictions, & continued operational improvements, we see CS as having the best potential to outperform peers on a risk-adjusted basis.

“What Is Underappreciated Or Misunderstood? Capstone has significantly de-risked its Mantos Blancos and Mantoverde operations in Chile throughout 2025, setting the stage for improved production & costs into 2026. Beyond growth from improved operational performance, Capstone is developing the Mantoverde Optimization, which is expected to add 20ktpa of Cu production starting late next year at a capital intensity of $9,000/t. Moreover, we believe there is the potential for a BHP Copper Cities/ Pinto Valley deal (whether JV or partnership) which could provide significant upside. Separately, CS has deleveraged its balance sheet below its target level of less than 1.0 times net debt/ EBITDA required to sanction Santo Domingo (now at 0.9 times as of Q3/25 vs. 1.8 times in Q3/24).”

The analyst kept a “buy” rating and $14 target for Capstone shares. The average on the Street is $14.29.

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RBC Dominion Securities analyst Rob Mann sees Cardinal Energy Ltd. (CJ-T) continuing to “generate positive momentum amid the company’s ramp-up of production at its 6,000 bbl/d SAGD project at Reford, which is tracking well ahead of schedule.”

“While Cardinal’s shares have performed strongly year-to-date, we believe the company has found its niche and still offers compelling organic (thermal) growth optionality, alongside a meaningful dividend as the portfolio transformation takes shape,” he added.

Mr. Mann came away from investor meetings with executives of the Calgary-based company taking a “positive” view of its rate of change, believing it offers “investors exposure to material (in the context of Cardinal’s portfolio) organic thermal production growth, while getting paid to wait.”

“Cardinal highlighted the production ramp-up period at Reford remains well ahead of the company’s expectations, averaging approximately 4,000 bbl/d in the first week of November, with an initial steam-oil-ratio (SOR) likely to trend below 3.0 times before stabilizing,” he said. “While the company is remaining disciplined with respect to its original reservoir management plan, we get the sense that Reford could achieve nameplate capacity prior to year-end.

“Organic Thermal Opportunities. The company would expect to have a second thermal project (6,000+ bbl/d) sanction ready in early 2026, however this will depend upon supportive market conditions. The company has a third project which has been delineated of similar scale, with a fourth potential project currently being assessed. In the right market conditions, Cardinal could see the potential for over 20,000 bbl/d of thermal production within its portfolio in the next 3-5 years at individual project costs of around $30,000/bbl/d ($170-$180 million), though continually highlighted this will be managed in the context of maintaining a net debt to cash flow ratio in the 1.0 times range alongside funding of the base dividend.”

After updating his 2025 and 2026 estimates to “reflect the accelerated ramp-up of Reford production and further details surrounding initial marketing efforts of the company’s thermal production,” Mr. Mann raised his target for Cardinal shares by $1 to $9.50, which exceeds the $8.42 average on the Street.

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Desjardins Securities analyst Benoit Poirier came away from Stella-Jones Inc.’s (SJ-T) Investor Day event this week “encouraged” and believes its mid-single-digit organic growth target for its Utility Poles business is “conservative” and “likely reflects recent and temporary customer capex timing and spot market headwinds.”

“This view is reinforced by SJ’s positive comments on growing momentum with U.S. utility customers and the potential for a Locweld U.S. greenfield facility (not included in targets),” he added. “If SJ delivers on its 10-per-cent-plus EPS growth goal, a multiple re-rating seems likely.”

“Math behind the more than 10-per-cent EPS growth algorithm. This target would be mainly driven by profitability levers and share buybacks (although SJ mentioned that replacing some of the buybacks with M&A could also get it to 10 per cent plus). Updating our model for our new estimates, we calculate that for SJ to achieve its 10-per-cent EPS growth target, the company would have to repurchase $534-million of shares, equivalent to a 3-per-cent CAGR [compound annual growth rate] reduction in share count over the period.”

In a client note released before the bell, Mr. Poirier showed enthusiasm for the Montreal-based company’s active search for “opportunities adjacent to its core business such as tubular steel poles (only less than 5 per cent of Locweld’s sales and is an untapped market).”

“SJ did not focus on its Residential Lumber segment in the presentation and stated that ‘anything is for sale for the right price’,” he added. “We would view a divestiture of the business positively as the segment is a slight margin drag, and a sale could potentially reclassify SJ’s GICS industry/index, leading to multiple re-rating. Moreover, this would provide additional funds that SJ could deploy toward M&A.”

After raising his earnings expectations through 2027 and adjusting his valuation, Mr. Poirier raised his target for Stella-Jones shares to $102 from $94, reiterating a “buy” rating. The average on the Street is $91.61.

“Stock could be worth $113/share by 2028 if SJ delivers on its ambitions,” he concluded. “We see additional sources of upside to our base-case estimates: construction of a Locweld U.S. greenfield facility that would come online in 2028 and boost organic growth ($117/ share); deploying C$1b toward incremental M&A with pro forma leverage ending 2028 at 2.6 times ($118/share); and multiple expansion to 10.5x EV/EBITDA on our base 2028 estimates, driven by strong EPS growth ($125/share).”

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In other analyst actions:

* After hosting U.S. virtual investor meetings, Raymond James’ Michael Glen hiked his Groupe Dynamite Inc. (GRGD-T) target to $72 from $55 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $64.25.

“Key focal points for the meetings were brand momentum/brand heat, unit growth, marketing strategy + success with ‘pyramid’ approach to social spending, inventory efficiency and capital allocation. We would characterize the meetings as quite positive with management speaking to an operation that is performing exceptionally well,” said Mr. Glen. “Heading into the F3Q results, we are moving our estimates higher and raising out target price to $72

“Management outlines a growth algorithm that points to 13-16 per cent sustainable top-line growth over the long-term (current results substantially exceeding this pace, and we are forecasting 26 per cent in F2025E), driven by a combination net new store openings, square footage growth, real estate repositioning, SSSG (price and traffic), and eCommerce.”

* Stifel’s Ian Gillies raised his Mattr Corp. (MATR-T) target by $1 to $8 with a “hold” rating. The average on the Street is now $10.81.

“We recently visited MATR’s newest Xerxes tank manufacturing facility in South Carolina, which made clear there is significant production capacity to meet robust demand,” he said. “We believe that Xerxes and AmerCable are the two strongest performing businesses within MATR, while Flexpipe and Shawflex are both suffering from weak demand. The crux of seeing improved performance for the share price is several quarters of stable and/or improving financial performance, given the significant downward revisions over the prior 24-months. We are now using 6.0 times EV/EBITDA and 15.0 times P/E on our 2027E forecasts to derive a target price of $8.00/sh (prior: $7.00/sh). This is admittedly a trough multiple on trough earnings. We will revisit the multiple as financial performance stabilizes.”