Recently, top creators have started using more rough-looking thumbnails for their videos. AI has made polished thumbnails too easy to create, so top creators are using what Hwang would call “poorly made thumbnails” to help videos stand out.
Hwang told me something surprising: even as AI makes it easier for creators to make thumbnails themselves, business has never been better for thumbnail artists, even at the lower end. He said that demand has soared because “AI as a whole has lowered the barriers for content creation, and now there’s more creators flooding in.”
Still, Hwang doesn’t expect the good times to last forever. “I don’t see AI completely taking over for the next three-ish years. That’s my estimated timeline.”
Everyone I talked to had different answers to when—if ever—AI would meaningfully disrupt their part of the industry.
Some, like Hwang, were pessimistic. Actor Erik Passoja told me he thought the big movie studios—like Warner Bros. or Paramount—would be gone in three to five years.
But others were more optimistic. Tess Dinerstein, the vertical drama actor, said, “I don’t think that verticals are ever going to go fully AI.” Even if it becomes technologically feasible, she argued, “that just doesn’t seem to be what the people want.”
Gille Klabin, the independent filmmaker, thought there would always be a place for high-quality human films. If someone’s work is “fundamentally derivative,” then they are at risk. But he thinks the best human-created work will still stand out. “I don’t know how AI could possibly replace the borderline divine element of consciousness,” he said.
The people who were most bullish on AI were, if anything, the least optimistic about their own career prospects. “I think at a certain point it won’t matter,” Kavan Cardoza told me. “It’ll be that anyone on the planet can just type in some sentences” to generate full, high-quality videos.
This might explain why Accetturo has become something of an AI evangelist; his newsletter tries to teach other filmmakers how to adapt to the coming AI revolution.
AI “is a tsunami that is gonna wipe out everyone” he told me. “So I’m handing out surfboards—teaching people how to surf. Do with it what you will.”
Kai Williams is a reporter for Understanding AI, a Substack newsletter founded by Ars Technica alum Timothy B. Lee. His work is supported by a Tarbell Fellowship. Subscribe to Understanding AI to get more from Tim and Kai.