Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions

After an “exceptionally strong run” in the fall, Canadian banks are now trading “at levels that could charitably be described as fully valued” ahead of fourth-quarter earnings season in the sector, according to Jefferies analyst John Aiken.

“In an outlook where top line growth will remain challenged, and credit pressures have yet to dissipate, we believe that the current downside risk is greater than their upside risk,” he said in a client report released before the bell on Tuesday.

In a section titled Discretion May Truly be the Better Part of Valour, Mr. Aiken said his outlook for the fourth quarter can “be best described as ‘solid’ in context of the current operating environment.”

“Credit should be stable (flat Stage 1&2 and likely incremental increases in Stage 3) while lending volumes remain positive but largely uninspiring,” he explained. “Top line support should come from capital markets and wealth management (with NA and BMO having the greatest relative exposures in combination), but these are well understood.

“That said, in an ongoing slow growth environment, after an exceptionally strong run through the fall, the Canadian banks trading at 13.0 times forward P/E levels are fully valued. While we do see upside in the Canadian banks’ earnings and valuations, our best guess is that this will become more apparent in the latter part of 2026 and that there is a greater downside risk with their current valuations than upside risk. Consequently, any miss on earnings in the fourth quarter could have significant negative consequences for valuation multiples, with near term upside likely constrained, even under a modest beat scenario. While we anticipate credit to be stable for the fourth quarter, any elevated credit losses over the medium term could present a buying opportunity.”

Mr. Aiken’s cautious view led him to downgrade his recommendation for a pair of banks:

* Royal Bank of Canada (RY-T) to “hold” from “buy” with a $215 target, up from $213. The average target on the Street is $228.08, according to LSEG data.

“Post acquisition of HSBC Canada extends RY’s dominance in Canadian retail and commercial banking. Further, with expense run-rate savings from its recent restructuring charges expected to hit the bottom line, we see a scenario where Royal will generate strong earnings growth and, on a relative basis, outperform the group,” he said.

* Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD-T) to “hold” from “buy” with a $125 target, rising from $124. The average is $114.59.

“While TD continues to recover from the resolution of its anti-money laundering issues, the bank retains a solid growth profile, based on the strength of its retail banking platforms on both sides of the border. Further, the ample excess capital offers optionality, as well as downside protection from a potential recession,” he said.

Mr. Aiken added: “While we still believe in the investment theses for RY (well diversified and high quality) and TD (improving sentiment as it progresses through AML remediation), we believe that both their multiples full reflect their upside, and we are downgrading both to HOLD (in spite of increasing their targets heading into Q4),” he said.

Separately, he called National Bank of Canada (NA-T) “a name to watch” during earnings season while trimming his target for its shares by $1 to $152 with a “hold” rating (unchanged). The average on the Street is $164.44.

“Along with its outsized relative exposures to capital markets and wealth, we believe that there will be some significant sentiment tailwinds for National in the quarter as management is expected to update the market on additional expected synergies (revenue) from the CWB integration as well as the capital relief to be expected from the migration of loan portfolios to NA’s AIRB classification,” he said.

Mr. Aiken also made these target revisions:

* Bank of Montreal (BMO-T, “hold”) to $181 from $173. Average: $182.72.

Analyst: “While BMO’s acquisition of Bank of the West adds heft to its U.S. P&C banking footprint and expands beyond its U.S. Midwest market, investors continue to look towards the opportunities for synergies.”

* Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM-T, “hold”) to $118 from $106. Average: $116.17.

Analyst: “While CIBC’s strategic priorities, including emphasizing growth in key client segments with strong returns, maintaining discipline in resource allocation with a focus on returns over balance sheet growth, and leveraging its capabilities to drive simplification and efficiency could lead to earnings outperformance and relative multiple expansion, execution of the strategy remains key.”

=====

Scotia Capital analyst Mike Rizvanovic sees a “constructive” set-up for Canadian banks “to end a banner year on a positive note.”

“We expect another solid quarter from the large Canadian banks to end a very strong year, helped by still-elevated Capital Markets, which should land close to record levels in F2025, stable-to-slightly-rising margins, expense growth moderation, and a healthy amount of share repurchases as the group continues to organically accrete excess capital, all of which could move forward expectations modestly higher post-quarter,” he said. “Credit will be topical once again in Q4, particularly given the recent noise around private credit and exposure to non-bank financials. However, based on key macroeconomic data and our recent discussions with the banks, we don’t expect to see any meaningful impact on PCLs related to that exposure in Q4 and losses, in our view, should remain very manageable and in-line with the most recent guidance.

“With respect to valuation, the large banks currently trade at 13.2 times on F2026 EPS consensus, but a more reasonable 11.9 times on F2027 expectations, which we believe leaves some upside potential post-quarter.”

Mr. Rizvanovic is now projecting earnings per share to decline on average by 6 per cent from the third quarter but to increase 20 per cent year-over-year with estimates largely falling in line with his peers on the Street.

“With respect to key earnings drivers we are forecasting (1) a roughly stable PCL ratio that is in line with recent guidance, supported by minimal changes in macroeconomic indicators; (2) NIMs to hold steady with a bit of potential upside on rate hedging; (3) modest loan growth; (4) an uptick in expenses but Y/Y operating leverage to remain positive; and (5) more moderate earnings in Capital Markets, albeit with upside surprise potential,” he said in a client report.

“Positioning Heading Into the Quarter: Heading into Q4 earnings we are most optimistic on CM where we expect to see another clean quarter with strong execution. We also have a favorable view on NA, with potential catalysts on new disclosure for revenue synergies related to CWB, which we don’t believe is currently captured in consensus estimates, and a more detailed plan on capital deployment. We are a bit cautious on BMO given the bank’s elevated valuation multiple and recent run-up in its share price. Among the smaller banks, we are very cautious on EQB following our pre-quarter discussions with management, and we see downside potential for the stock despite its heavily discounted valuation.”

The analyst made a pair of target revisions on Tuesday:

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM-T, “sector outperform”) to $123 from $121. The average on the Street is $116.17.National Bank of Canada (NA-T, “sector outperform”) to $166 from $159. Average: $164.44.

The rest of his coverage universe looks like this:

Bank of Montreal (BMO-T) with a “sector perform” rating and $179 target. Average: $182.72.EQB Inc. (EQB-T) with a “sector perform” rating and $94 target. Average: $99.89.Laurentian Bank of Canada (LB-T) with a “sector perform” rating and $33 target. Average: $28.50.Royal Bank of Canada (RY-T) with a “sector outperform” rating and $218 target. Average: $228.08.Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD-T) with a “sector perform” rating and $114 target. Average: $114.59.

“As of 11/21/2025, the large Canadian banks traded at a market cap-weighted PE multiple of 13.2 times on F2026 consensus EPS estimates,” the analyst said. “While that is above the group’s historical 10-year average multiple of 11.1 times, the multiple on F2027 consensus, which we use to value the group, is far lower at 11.9 times, reflecting expectations for solid 8-per-cent EPS growth in that year. We continue to make the case that historical PE multiples are far less relevant today given a much more stable banking sector supported by a very strong capital cushion, and so we value the group using a PE multiple of 12.7 times. Heading into earnings season we believe the key driver for further share price appreciation will be quarterly performance, where we see potential for another round of EPS beats, with modest multiple expansion providing a bit more upside.”

=====

Raymond James analyst Stephen Boland initiated coverage on Canada’s six largest banks on Tuesday, taking a “relatively neutral” stance on the near-term potential.

“While long-term we remain positive, most of the Big 6 are trading near peak P/E multiples, leaving the group sensitive to shifts in market sentiment — particularly around the credit outlook,“ he said in a report released Tuesday. ”At the same time, the banks are well capitalized, maintain elevated reserves, and benefit from diversified income streams, which should help them weather any possible credit pressures. That said, we believe NIMs may peak in 2026, expect housing activity to remain subdued though gradually improving, and trading revenues to moderate following several years of elevated market activity. Consequently, near-term earnings growth appears more predicated on PCLs normalizing from recent levels — a path that remains uncertain, though nonetheless reflected in current valuations, in our view.”

“We recommend that Canadian investors maintain exposure within the sector, and we encourage U.S. investors to look North for opportunities. In our view, the Big 6 compare favourably with large U.S. banks and the broader U.S. banking industry. Collectively, they rank among the 20 largest banks in North America and hold more than 95 per cent of Canada’s banking assets. All Canadian banks operate under federal regulation.”

Mr. Boland set these ratings and targets:

* Royal Bank of Canada (RY-T) with an “outperform” rating and $229 target. The average on the Street is $228.08.

“We are positive on RBC for its leading ROE, unmatched scale, and strong management team,” he said. “We also believe RBC’s diversified business mix and lower lending exposure leaves it less vulnerable than peers to any deterioration in the credit cycle. In a sector where we find value to be somewhat scarce, RBC stands out as a bank which offers investors greater downside protection, notwithstanding its premium valuation (which we expect the bank to sustain).

* Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T) with an “outperform” rating and $108 target. Average: $93.92.

“After several years of relative underperformance, Scotiabank’s recent results are showing a number of encouraging developments,” he said. “Under new management, the bank has scaled back exposure to underperforming markets, boosting profitability across its International operations and keeping performance ahead of the bank’s 2023 Investor Day targets. Global Banking and Markets also continues to demonstrate strength, with a rising ROE and growth in the important U.S. market. With its valuation still lagging peers, we see potential for Scotiabank’s multiple to expand as the ROE improves, while the stock also offers investors an attractive yield of 4.6 per cent.”

* Toronto Dominion Bank (TD-T) with a “market perform” rating and $119 target. Average: $114.59.

“While still managing through the fallout of the asset cap introduced on its U.S. subsidiary following anti-money laundering breaches, TD has made steady progress in 2025 under new leadership,” he said. “That said, we view the shares as less attractive following a 50-per-cent increase year-to-date. We note ongoing risks related to the bank’s AML remediation process and caution surrounding the bank’s ability to achieve their $2 billion+ cost savings target outlined at their recent Investor Day.”

* Bank of Montreal (BMO-T) with a “market perform” rating and $182 target. Average: $182.72.

“BMO’s shares have rebounded following last year’s credit challenges in its U.S. operations,” he said. “However, we believe the recent U.S. PCL improvement appears largely priced in, and the bank’s ability to achieve a 15-per-cent-plus ROE target increasingly depends on sustained improvement in the U.S. ROE beyond PCL normalization, including factors such as deposit growth and synergies from Bank of the West. Ultimately, we prefer to wait for clearer signs of U.S. ROE progress before taking a more positive view on the stock.”

* Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM-T) with a “market perform” rating and $127 target. Average: $116.17.

“CIBC has performed strongly since overcoming credit issues in its U.S. office portfolio in 2023,” he said. “NIM expansion has been an important differentiator for CIBC, though we believe the bank’s NIM could peak in 2026, and near-term earnings growth may be more closely linked to continued PCL improvement — an area where we have generally less conviction. That said, CIBC continues to execute strongly and a more attractive entry point could lead us to become more positive on the stock.”

* National Bank of Canada (NA-T) with a “market perform” rating and $168 target. Average: $164.44.

“National has delivered a peer-leading ROE for much of the past two decades and has been the top-performing Canadian bank stock over the last 25 years,” he said. “The bank is now broadening its footprint beyond Quebec, with the recent acquisition of Canadian Western Bank representing a significant step in that strategy. However, rebuilding ROE toward its 15–20-per-cent medium-term target may prove more difficult as National expands into markets where its competitive advantages are less established. We are also cautious on the near-term outlook for its Cambodian subsidiary, ABA Bank, which is still working through a period of elevated impairments.”

=====

National Bank Financial analyst Mohamed Sidibé came back from a recent visit to Fortuna Mining Corp.’s (FVI-T) Séguéla mine in Côte d’Ivoire with an increasingly “positive” view, pointing to “more visibility on the growth optionality from exciting exploration opportunities at the company’s flagship Séguélaasset.”

That led him to raise his rating for shares of the Vancouver-based company to “outperform” from “sector perform” previously.

“We now expect that the new baseline production of 160-180 koz [thousand ounces] in 2026 could be maintained at a minimum over the remainder of the mine life with the potential to increase this beyond 200 koz from 2028 at low capital intensity through the Sunbird underground project and the mill expansion to 2.0-2.5 mln tpa [million tons per annum] from 1.75 mln tpa,” said Mr. Sidibé. When paired with additional growth from the Diamba Sud project which we model and where a construction decision is expected in mid-2026, we view Fortuna as delivering attractive growth, strong FCF and operational delivery with continuous exploration upside.”

Following the visit, which followed its recent release of its updated mineral reserve and resource estimate and drill results from the Sunbird deposit, the analyst raised resource estimate and included $250-million of upside value for the underground and plant expansion projects, leading to an increase in his net asset value assumptions.

“FVI is in control of its targeted growth towards 500 koz AuEq with Séguéla targeted at 200 koz+. We view this as achievable by the end of the decade. The exploration opportunities at Séguéla are real and support this targeted growth: Sunbird underground, Kingfisher open pit, underground optionality across other deposits could be unlocked and extension of current reserves and resources.

“Mill expansion to 2.0-2.5 million tpa should further unlock production upside: FVI already optimized its initial mill capacity from 1.25 million tpa to 1.75 million tpa.”

Also emphasizing the growth is “funded from a strong balance sheet and strong expected FCF” and anticipating “a disciplined approach to growth,” Mr. Sidibé raised his target for Fortuna shares to $15 from $14.25. The average target on the Street is $13.37, according to LSEG data.

=====

Desjardins Securities analyst Benoit Poirier thinks Kraken Robotics Inc. (PNG-X) remains “significantly undervalued” versUs its drone/defence technology peers, such as Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc. (KTOS-Q), Ondas Holdings Inc. (ONDS-Q), Redwire Corp. (RDW-N) and Volatus Aerospace Inc. (FLT-X), “desPite superior profitability.”

“Our confidence in Kraken’s battery growth outlook has strengthened following the U.S. Navy’s draft plan to cancel Boeing’s Orca XLUUV in favour of other unmanned alternatives — a timely setup for Anduril, whose Rhode Island facility is set to begin production,” he added.

Shares of the St. John’s-based company finished 0.6 per cent following the premarket release of its third-quarter results, which included revenue of $31.3-million, which is a gain of 60 per cent year-over-year and exceeds Mr. Poirier’s $31.1-million estimate. Adjusted earnings per share of a penny matched the analyst’s projection and was up 363 per cent from the same period in fiscal 2024.

“We have slightly increased our assumptions for 2025 following the 3Q beat (vs our more conservative estimates) and a constructive discussion with management,” said Mr. Poirier. “We are now more confident that the lower end of the $120–135-million revenue guidance is achievable, with potential upside to the higher end if certain KATFISH contracts are closed before year-end. We now forecast $122-million in revenue and $29-million in EBITDA (up from C$118-million and C$27-million previously).

“Looking to 2027, we have increased our product revenue estimate to account for the Australia Anduril program of record booked in the quarter (see our note; was not yet in our numbers) as the rampup is seemingly faster than even we had expected with the Ghost Shark factory already up and running in Sydney, and given Anduril is on course to deliver its first unit to the Navy this January. That said, we still forecast only $142-million of battery revenue in 2027, far below Kraken’s max capacity of $200–250-million, pointing to further upside with the current asset base if other programs are secured.“

While expecting capex commitments to weigh on 2026 earnings, Mr. Poirier increased his 2027 revenue and earnings projections alongside gains to his current year forecast. That led him to bump his target for Kraken shares to $6.50 from $5, keeping a “buy” rating. The current average is $6.25.

“With the equity financing now closed, we forecast that Kraken will end the year with an enviable $119-million net cash position, opening the door to M&A opportunities in 2026 as well as covering any capex related to additional battery capacity (if needed) or any one-time costs related to a potential index uplifting,” he added.

Elsewhere, Raymond James’ Steven Li raised his Kraken target to $6.25 from $4, reaffirming an “outperform” rating.

“Small 3Q miss on revenues. A lot of the revenue lumpiness this year can be attributed to the contract gaps/delays on the sonar/katfishes side. But momentum in this segment is building back up as a number of sizeable RFPs have been released (with potential award dates in 1H26). No change on the battery side except we highlight recent trade articles around U.S. Navy potentially shifting away from Boeing Orca in the Anduril vs Boeing in the battle for XL-UUV. Our model A-EBITDA is tweaked higher slightly given the recent positive gross margin performance. Target also moves higher,” said Mr. Li.

=====

RBC Dominion Securities analyst James McGarragle shook up his pecking order for the Canadian aerospace companies in his coverage universe on Tuesday following the conclusion of a “mixed” third-quarter earnings season, moving Bombardier Inc. (BBD.B-T) to the top spot to replace Air Canada (AC-T).

He said his move was due to Bombardier’s strong demand and “a meaningful expected ramp in Q4 margins,” while noting its shares have rallied exiting the quarter.

“We also continue to see long-term upside from defence spending,” he added.

“Air Canada drops to #2 (from #1), reflecting near-term 2026 margin challenges due to aircraft delivery delays and cost inflation, though we continue to flag a compelling long-term opportunity for investors willing to look through the next 12-18 months,” said Mr. McGarragle. “Exchange Income remains at #3, with 2026 guidance pointing to mid-teen EBITDA growth and potential valuation upside from underappreciated opportunities in Aerospace, Defense, and Manufacturing. Chorus held its #4 spot, supported by its shift toward higher-margin defense contracts, robust FCF (8-per-cent yield on 2026), and flexibility from aircraft divestitures. CAE stayed at #5, with shares appearing fully valued.”

The analyst’s current ratings and targets are:

1. Bombardier Inc. (BBD.B-T) with an “outperform” rating and $230 target. The average target on the Street is $222.77.

Analyst: “BBD’s Q3 results came in below expectations, however management reaffirmed 2025 guidance. A key highlight was strong demand, reflected in a 1.3 times BTB, which should position the company well to achieve the higher end of its FCF guide of $500- $800-million. However, supply chain challenges continue to weigh on margins, and while management anticipates improvement by H2/26, the timing remains uncertain. Overall, we continue to see a compelling opportunity in Bombardier shares with upside potential from increased government defense spending and potential for higher production targets.”

2. Air Canada (AC-T) with an “outperform” rating and $25 target. Average: $23.59.

Analyst: “AC’s Q3 results were in line with the company’s pre-release and management tightened 2025 guidance in line with expectations. That said, focus from the quarter was on 2026 costs, which management flagged will come in ahead of prior street expectations resulting from aircraft delivery delays, updated labor agreements, and higher airport infrastructure costs. Despite near-term margin challenges, we continue to see a compelling longterm opportunity in AC shares for investors willing to look past what we see as transitory headwinds.”

3. Exchange Income Corp. (EIF-T) with an “outperform” rating and $94 target. Average: $88.80.

Analyst: “EIF reported a Q3 beat on the back of better than expected results in Aviation. The key takeaway from the quarter in our view though was 2026 guidance, which implies mid-teen EBITDA growth. We came away more positive post Q3 on the company’s outlook reflecting its exposure to several secular tailwinds in both Aviation and Manufacturing. While we believe Aerospace tailwinds are well understood by investors, we do not believe Exchange gets credit for its significant exposure to Infrastructure and Housing investment, both of which were key items in the recent Canadian budget.”

4. Chorus Aviation Inc. (CHR-T) with an “outperform” rating and $31 target. Average: $29.50.

Analyst: “Q3 results surpassed expectations with guidance remaining largely unchanged. We are encouraged by management’s decision to expedite Voyageur’s exit from lower-margin contracts, enabling a shift toward higher-value defense opportunities backed by increased Canadian defense spending. Additionally, the divestiture of nine aircraft should provide flexibility to fund growth initiatives, M&A activity, or shareholder returns in 2026. With 8-per-cent FCF yield on our 2026 estimate, we see attractive valuation and point to potential upside from strategic investments and capital redeployment.”

5. CAE Inc. (CAE-T) with a “sector perform” rating and $40 target. Average: $44.

Analyst: “CAE reported an FQ2 beat but lowered Civil guidance, aligning with pilot hiring trends, and maintained Defense guidance despite strong H1 performance (H1 adjusted SOI up more than 40 per cent), implying negative adj. SOI growth in H2. While CAE benefits from favourable long-term secular trends, the negative implied H2 Defense guide suggests limited near-term upside. With shares yielding less than 3 per cent on our FY27E FCF, we continue to see CAE as fully valued.”

=====

In other analyst actions:

* In response to Monday’s announcement of a resolution to its long-standing dispute with the government of Mali, Raymond James’ Brian MacArthur raised his target for shares of Barrick Mining Corp. (B-N, ABX-T) to US$42 from US$40 with an “outperform” rating. The average on the Street is US$43.21.

“Barrick has a controlling interest in numerous high-quality gold mines and copper assets that allows it to generate strong cash flow. The no-premium deal with Randgold provided more tier-one assets and free cash flow, but also increased Barrick’s jurisdictional risk given Randgold’s large African portfolio. The creation of the Nevada JV with Newmont consolidated management at the world’s largest gold complex and provided the opportunity to create meaningful synergies,” said Mr. MacArthur.

* In a research report titled Substantial Deleveraging Will Keep Momentum Going – Be Savvy and Buy Some Cavvy, Ventum Financial’s Adam Gill initiated coverage of Calgary-based Cavvy Energy Ltd. (CVVY-T) with a “buy” rating and $1.50 target.

“The Company is at the start of a massive improvement in funds flow and leverage, and while the stock has rallied aggressively ahead of next year, we still believe there is strong potential for the shares to drive higher,” he said. “The key source of the improvements in funds flow comes from the significant increase in AECO prices in 2026, along with a substantial gain in sulphur revenues.

“This increase in revenues will drive very strong FCF next year (forecast an FCF yield of 30.0 per cent), and with that, leverage is expected to fall to 0.6 times from 2.2 times in 2025. Given a 2026E EV/DACF [enterprise value to debt-adjusted cash flow] valuation of 2.4 times versus peers at 5.3 times, we believe there is still substantial room for the shares to continue to rise and re-rate on the low valuation.”

* CIBC initiated coverage of Toronto-based Highlander Silver Corp. (HSLV-T) with an “outperformer ” rating and $5.50 target.

* Following institutional investor meetings with Interfor Corp. (IFP-T) CEO Ian Fillinger last week, Raymond James’ Daryl Swetlishoff reduced his target for its shares to $12 from $15 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $14.

“We continue to highlight IFP as an investment vehicle with high leverage to improved U.S. housing activity levels,” he explained. “Current run-rate production underscores that IFP offers the highest torque to lumber prices in our coverage universe, with each US$10/mfbm annualized move driving an estimated $3-per-share change in theoretical equity value (40 per cent of the current share price). Layered on this, we conservatively peg Interfor’s net asset value at $30 per share, implying more than 300-per-cent returns from current levels.

“Based on our meetings, cash burn and leverage remain key investor concerns; however, we highlight the company retains levers to mitigate cash losses and backstop financial liquidity.”

* To “reflect the current look-through value of the proposed takeover bid from Anglo,” Scotia’s Orest Wowkodaw reduced his Teck Resources Ltd. (TECK.B-T) target to $60 from $65 with a “sector perform” rating. The average on the Street is $65.22.

“With market sentiment at an apparent crossroads with respect to the burgeoning AI narrative, mining equities are being whipsawed in both directions in a seemingly daily battle between a bullish and bearish outlook, despite underlying commodity prices that are largely holding steady,” said Mr. Wowkodaw and his mining equity colleagues in a note released Tuesday. “From a fundamental perspective, we see no change in our relatively bullish near-term outlook for several commodities, most notably copper (Cu), as ongoing supply-side underperformance is likely to more than compensate for weak demand … We take stock of current equity valuations for the miners at both spot and our price deck. We conclude that for the most part, equity valuations appear reasonably attractive, particularly for the mid-caps; we view the current market volatility as an attractive entry point into the sector.

“After reviewing risk-reward profiles and valuations, CCO, CS, and FCX are top picks. We also highly recommend CIA, ERO, HBM, IVN, LUN, and VALE. Among the developers, we prefer DML, FOM, IE, MOON, NXE, and OM.”