Now that we’ve reached the quarter-mark of the season, the Montreal Canadiens find themselves on the outside looking in at the NHL playoff picture.
They’re not out of the playoff race by any means, as they’re currently tied with the Pittsburgh Penguins for the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. With that in mind, history suggests that roughly 75 percent of the teams in a playoff spot by American Thanksgiving end up qualifying for the playoffs.
If the trend maintains, the Habs will face an uphill climb, a situation that’s far from uncommon for a team that’s not quite done with its rebuild.
However, there are some concerning trends emerging from recent games, with Wednesday night‘s game versus the Utah Mammoth serving as the perfect example. The Canadiens emerged with a 4-3 win, but the Mammoth held a significant advantage in high-danger scoring chances at 5v5, to the tune of 12-3. Moreover, as it stands, the Habs rank just 26th in the league when it comes to their share of quality scoring chances, with just 46.1 percent.
If the Canadiens are to find their momentum, they’ll need to generate a lot more quality chances, and to do that, they’ll need their top-six to lead the charge.
Changes To The Top Six
Head coach Martin St-Louis decided to break up his first line earlier in the month, following the injury to forward Alex Newhook. Juraj Slafkovsky was placed on the second line, while Zachary Bolduc received a promotion to the first.
Now that they’ve played a few games together, we have a better idea of whether the change has improved Montreal’s odds of controlling more shots and scoring chances.
It’s important to remember Bolduc has had a lot less time to build chemistry alongside Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield, while Slafkovsky has a wealth of experience playing on the first line. It’s also very difficult to build chemistry on the fly, in the middle of the season, another factor working against the newly-formed first line.
That being said, the difference in results with and without Slafkovsky at 5v5 is impossible to ignore.
(CF% = shot share, HDCF% = high-danger shot share, xGF% = expected goal share, GF% = actual goal share)
We’re not discussing a slight downtick in statistics, but rather, a complete collapse. The first line went from one of the most dominant in hockey, nearing or surpassing 60 percent in most key categories, to a below-replacement combination in the last stretch of games.
But what about the second line?
This comparison is not straightforward, as it involves a player who is not currently available due to an injury, but it’s worth taking a look at the results nonetheless.
As you can see, the second line is controlling fewer shots, fewer quality scoring chances, fewer expected goals, and fewer goals.
Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks
Few, if any teams can boast they have a line they can count on to control more than 65 percent of the expected goals, and from a statistical standpoint, breaking up a line that can reach that elite level is a cardinal sports sin.
The decision to switch things up not only demolished a fantastic combination, it also led to worse results for the second line, and consequently, the entire team.
In one fell swoop, the Habs went from a one-line team to a no-line team.
Of course, it’s easy to criticize changes in hindsight, and injuries often force lineup changes, but the Montreal Canadiens could do themselves a big favour by simply returning Slafkovsky to the top line.
It would not solve the problems on the second trio, but it would go a long way in ensuring they have at least one line that can power them up the steep playoff hill.
All Montreal Canadiens statistics are 5v5 unless otherwise noted, via Natural Stat Trick.
Marc has been covering the Habs for over a decade. He previously worked for Journal Metro, The Athletic, The … More about Marc Dumont