Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions

With gold prices “shining brightly” in 2025, Desjardins Securities analyst Bryce Adams initiated coverage of four producers on Friday with the expectation the sector will “generate strong free cash flow and for capital allocation priorities to be well-served.”

“We continue to have a positive medium-term outlook on gold prices, as U.S. Fed rate cuts remain in focus against stubborn inflation data and as central bank gold buying continues to highlight the global de-dollarization themes which we believe bode well for future gold prices,” he said. “We assume a price of US$4,019/oz in 2026, US$4,146/oz in 2027, and US$4,284/oz in 2028 and long term.”

Mr. Adams named Vancouver-based K92 Mining Inc. (KNT-T), which owns and operates the high-grade Kainantu mine Papua New Guinea, as his “preferred equity for a combination of attractive growth, resource upside potential and compelling valuation.”

He set a “buy” rating and $26 target for the company’s shares, pointing to a 33-per-cent expected return. The average target on the Street is currently $24.21, according to LSEG data.

“K92 Mining offers investors above-average growth potential and a discounted valuation,“ he said. ”Further, we see above-average resource growth potential at the large and prospective Kainantu land package. K92 Mining is on the cusp of delivering its Phase 3 production profile (we expect the paste plant by mid-2026 to be the last key project) and will quickly segue into Phase 4 expansion. Kainantu is a high-grade, underground operation in Papua New Guinea. In our view, single-asset and geopolitical risks are more than offset by compelling upside opportunities; we are initiating coverage with a Buy–Above-average Risk rating and a $26 target price. Of the four companies we are initiating coverage on in this report, we view K92 Mining as a top pick in the group for its transformative growth and outsized resource upside potential.”

Mr. Adams also initiated coverage of these companies:

* Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI-T) with a “buy” rating and $64 target. The average on the Street is $60.77.

“In our view, Alamos Gold provides strong investor appeal for its Canadian growth focus,” said Mr. Adams. “We acknowledge setbacks from the 3Q25 financial results, including a negative guidance revision and seismic impacts at Island Gold. In our view, these are short-term issues, and Alamos Gold’s near-term growth profile will continue to support share price appreciation over the coming years. Alamos Gold’s project pipeline provides phased production growth with Island Gold Phase 3 ramping in 2026, Mulatos’ PDA project in 2027 and the greenfield Lynn Lake in 2029. We model 69-per-cent gold growth in 2030 vs 2025 production, with most of the growth in Canada. We therefore believe Alamos Gold shares deserve a premium multiple.”

* Kinross Gold Corp. (K-T) with a “buy” rating and $44 target. Average: $40.72.

“We view Kinross Gold as a consistent gold producer with strong free cash flow which positions the company to buy back stocks, potentially increase its dividend and derisk the meaningful Great Bear project toward construction and ramp-up,” he said. “With both Great Bear and Lobo-Marte future production profiles to complement the existing asset base, we view Kinross Gold as a longer-term growth name and a nearer-term cash flow story. 3Q25 delivered free cash flow of US$712-million, highlighting the cash generation potential. We model a 2026 free cash flow yield of 9.6 per cent, compared with peers at 7.5 per cent on average. Notably, Kinross Gold recently reported a net cash balance sheet position.”

* OceanaGold Corp. (OGC-T) with a “buy” rating and $50 target, matching the high on the Street. Average: $39.19.

“In our view, OceanaGold offers a strong investment case as a disciplined, growth-oriented mid-cap gold producer,” said Mr. Adams. “We note that the company delivered strong 3Q25 results including record revenue of US$449-million and FCF of US$94-million, supported by no debt and a healthy US$335-million cash balance which funds its near-term growth objectives. With four gold assets in the U.S., the Philippines and New Zealand, OceanaGold provides a diversified operating base with unhedged gold price exposure. We view the planned NYSE listing (expected in April 2026) as a positive development to increase liquidity, available buyers and, potentially, valuation. We expect investments (stripping) at Haile and Macraes to support 4Q25 and 2026 results as fresh, higher-grade ore is processed. OceanaGold has a strong buyback program in place (US$175m, increased with 3Q results from US$100-million), the WNP permit is expected around year-end, several updated technical reports are scheduled for 1H26 and there are ongoing exploration programs that we expect can all support share price appreciation in the medium term.”

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In a research report released before the bell titled Let it dough, let it dough, let it dough, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Irene Nattel said she has “measured optimism” ahead of the release of Dollarama Inc.’s (DOL-T) third-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Dec. 11.

“Forecasting solid FQ3 results with KPIs [key performance indicators] at or slightly above the high-end of F26 guidance on calendar shift and reflecting value-oriented yet resilient consumer spending,” she said. “Sector-leading growth trajectory underpinned by visible and sustainable runway in core Canadian market, augmented by accelerating contribution from LatAm, emerging opportunities in Mexico/Australia, and favourable flow of funds all supportive of DOL premium valuation, in our view. NB: FQ3 incorporates the first full quarter contribution from Dollarama Australia”

Ms. Nattel is currently projecting quarterly earnings per share for the Montreal-based discount retailer of $1.09, a gain of 11.2 per cent year-over-year but a penny below the consensus expectation on the Street.

“Our FQ3E incorporates 15 new stores in Canada (up 4.9 per cent year-over-year) and SSS [same-store sales] up 5.5 per cent, above annual guidance range 3-4 per cent reflecting calendar shift with four extra Halloween shopping days in FQ3 vs FQ4 prior year, and likely boosted by Blue Jays fan gear and related traffic/basket in Ontario,” she said. “Expectation of modest EBITDA deleverage on a consolidated basis reflects different margin structure at Dollarama Australia, incorporated for a full quarter as of FQ3.

“Looking ahead, the evolution of consumer sentiment and spending remains unknown, but Dollarama’s deep value positioning should continue to appeal to a broad base of consumers, in our view a key relative advantage sustaining both relative earnings growth and valuation.”

Reiterating her “constructive” outlook and “outperform” recommendation, Ms. Nattel called Dollarama a “secular winner as consumer value-seeking behaviour likely sustains gains in share of wallet.” Her target for its shares rose by $8 to $220 on multiple expansion. The average is $215.99.

“Target multiple from 20 times to 21 times fiscal 2028 estimated EBITDA ex-Dollarcity broadly consistent with current 2026E valuation 21.5 times and reflects DOL’s strong consumer positioning and relative earnings strength against the backdrop of highly uncertain earnings trajectory in other growth-oriented names,” she said. “In our view, DOL is uniquely positioned to continue gaining share of wallet and generate sector-leading results as consumers hunt for value, and valuation should stabilize toward the high-end of the long-term range as investors seek refuge in ratable, predictable, and sustainable growth stories.”

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TD Cowen analyst Michael Van Aelst thinks Saputo Inc.’s (SAP-T) valuation no longer properly reflects its growth outlook as “tailwinds mount.”

That view led him to name the Montreal-based dairy giant to the firm’s “Best Ideas 2026” list on Friday.

“After several disruptive years (COVID, labor shortages, GSP ramp-up) improving execution is now evident,” he said in a client note. “Capacity expansion and better order fill rates (back to traditional high standards) are driving vol growth and enabling price discipline. Mix is being optimized and SAP is making the tough decisions to control costs (plant rationalization, SG&A reduction, structural simplification) to offset inflationary pressures (e.g., labour) and greater brand support (ad & promos). We see this driving 21-per-cent EBITDA growth in H2/F26 and 11 per cent/7 per cent in F27/F28. Valuation (now 9.6x our C2026E EBITDA) has moved up materially from its 7.4 times Jan 2025 low, but is still below its 11.2 times 10-yr avg and the peer avg of 11.1 times.

“What Is Underappreciated Or Misunderstood? Most headwinds of past years, plus the sizable GSP investments, are now behind it, and better growth lies ahead.”

Mr. Van Aelst thinks the company’s third-quarter 2026 results, which are scheduled to be released in early February, will been seen as a “positive catalyst” for investors, pointing to: “1) the recovery in Argentina profits should lead to 70-per-cent year-over-year increase in International EBITDA, 2) Canada EBITDA should rise 9 per cent and reach margins not seen since F13, and 3) SAP should confirm the last U.S. plant closure in Dec, resulting in the full realization of remaining GSP returns next year.”

Pointing to “a strong absolute and relative outlook,” he hiked his target for Saputo shares to a Street high of $49 from $44, reaffirming a “buy” rating. The average is $39.80.

“Despite a superior earnings outlook, SAP trades at a meaningful discount to many CPG peers,” he explained “Executing well on the controllables, Canada firing on all cylinders, ARG hyperinflation impact diminishing, ARG/EUR milk costs declining, and USA profits moving higher (led by capital project returns), we see 16-per-cent NTM [next 12-mont] EBITDA growth plus modest valuation expansion pushing shares to

“CPG peers trade in the 8-16 times range, despite having far inferior NTM EPS growth expectations relative to SAP’s 40 per cent,” he added.

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While acknowledging “uncertainty remains surrounding the timing and pace” of ramp-up in Rogers Sugar Inc.’s (RSI-T) $300-million modernization project at its aging Lantic refining factory in Montreal, as “the extension pushes the return on invested capital further to the right,” National Bank Financial analyst Zachary Evershed said his concerns are “tempered by expectations of higher profitability in FY26.”

“The 6-month LEAP start-up delay to June 2027 was a trade-off against uninterrupted production at the site and total cost,” he added. “Refurbishing the 140-year-old building and installing new equipment next to running lines has been more difficult than anticipated, but total downtime in the past 2 years has amounted to only 9 hours. With additional labour and overtime, management believes they could have maintained the initial schedule, but opted instead to stick to the $280-300 million project budget.”

Nicolas Van Praet: Rogers Sugar delays modernization project at aging Montreal factory

On Thursday, shares of the Vancouver-based company rose 1.6 per cent after it reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 revenue of $322.7-million, down 3.1 per cent year-over-year but exceeding both Mr. Evershed’s $309.4-million estimate and the consensus projection of $314.1-million. Adjusted earnings per share of 16 cents rose 14.3 per cent from the same stretch in fiscal 2024 (at 14 cents) and also topped expectations (13 cents and 15 cents, respectively).

“Sugar volumes are expected to come in between 750-770,000 tons, representing a 3-per-cent decrease year-over-year, primarily led by lower export volumes to the U.S., while the Maple segment is expected to ship 55.0 million lbs, up 3 per cent year-over-year on the back of continued market growth,” the analyst said. “We expect Sugar’s margins should benefit from improving mix as lower-margin export volumes decline. On the Maple side, closer alignment of grades procured to customer needs (i.e., reducing high quality syrup used in industrial applications) should also help lift gross margins back to, or above, the 10-per-cent target (Q4/25: 8.7 per cet).”

After adjusting his forecast and rolling forward his valuation model to 2027, Mr. Evershed bumped his target for Rogers Sugar shares to $7, matching the average on the Street, from $6.25.

“We reiterate our Sector Perform rating as the company remains in investment mode, and we see timelier options elsewhere,” he said.

Elsewhere, TD Cowen’s Michael Van Aelst downgraded Rogers Sugar to “hold” from “buy” with a $7 target (unchanged).

“Outlook remains relatively healthy, with stable domestic sugar demand (tariff volatility and shrinkflation offsetting new sugar-containing product facilities), rising international maple syrup demand, and modestly expanding margins,” he said. “Still, downgrading on price appreciation, slightly lower earnings outlook (lower sugar export volumes), and another 6 month delay in commissioning new sugar capacity.”

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In other analyst actions:

* CIBC World Markets’ Kevin Chiang upgraded Canadian National Railway Co. (CNR-T) to “outperformer” from “neutral” with a $151 target, rising from $146. The average on the Street is $156.88.

* “Expecting muted loan growth and credit provisions to persist,” TD Cowen’s Graham Ryding reduced his EQB Inc. (EQB-T) target to $96 from $105 with a “hold” rating ahead of the release of its fourth-quarter results on Dec. 3. The average is $102.83.

“We are updating our estimates ahead of Q4/F25 results, reflecting a more conservative loan growth, NIM (still within F2025 guidance) and PCLs outlook (soft employment and housing activity). We have also reduced our F2026 outlook, given lower loan growth exiting F2025, a lower NIM (in line with F2025), and slightly higher PCLs,” said Mr. Ryding.

* Desjardins Securities’ Frederic Tremblay trimmed his Goodfood Market Corp. (FOOD-T) target to 25 cents from 30 cents, keeping a “hold” rating.

“4Q FY25 results were in line vs our expectations, with FOOD posting lower revenue (weaker demand, reduced incentives) and another quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA (cost discipline),” said Mr. Tremblay. “We are reducing our FY26 estimates due to continued pressure on meal-kit demand. Encouraged by early progress from Genuine Tea and the launch of Heat & Eat meals, FOOD is looking at other opportunities to increase diversification, but we believe limited balance sheet flexibility is a complicating factor.”