Updated November 29, 2025 12:00PM
The odds of Tadej Pogačar taking his first-ever edition of Milan-San Remo have been dented, following the publication of the likely race schedule for top rival Mathieu van der Poel.
The Dutchman’s Alpecin-Deceuninck team revealed Friday that he will compete in up to 13 cyclocross races this winter, with the first potentially coming in two weeks’ time.
That is the Namur World Cup, although his squad has indicated it is possible Van der Poel could opt to instead start one week later in the World Cup race in Antwerp.
One other fixture remains to be confirmed, namely the Benidorm World Cup on January 18.
His program will end with the world championships in Hulst on February 1, where he will be aiming for an outright record of eight wins.
So what’s that got to do with Pogačar?
A lot, as it turns out.
Is less more?
Pogačar tried time and again to drop Mathieu van der Poel in this year’s Milan-San Remo but couldn’t quite snap the elastic (Photo: Dario Belingheri/Getty Images)
In this year’s edition of the race, Van der Poel was the only rider able to contain the world champion’s attacks on the Cipressa and the Poggio. He was slightly gapped at times but always managed to return, and was able to put in his own dig on the latter climb close to the finish.
He duly outsprinted the multiple Tour winner at the end, with Filippo Ganna (Ineos Grenadiers) able to snag second after rejoining the other two close to the line.
The difficulty for Pogačar is that the course is not hard enough to capitalize on his main strength, namely being a far better climber than anyone else in the sport.
That in turn means he has to be in absolute peak shape to be able to comprehensively drop Van der Poel in La Primavera.
Instead the latter looks set to once again be closer to his own best form when the race takes place on March 21.
As detailed in this recent Velo analysis, Van der Poel had 16 days of racing in his legs prior to lining out in Milan last March.
These included eight days of cyclocross competition, and eight in road events.
In contrast Pogačar had exactly half that in his legs.
And next time around?
Well, Van der Poel’s intention to compete up to 13 times on the cyclocross bike should put him even further ahead of where he was last spring. Add in the inevitable road races and it is likely his competition days will be 20 or higher.
Early indications are that Pogačar will have a very different approach. Respected La Gazzetta dello Sport journalist Ciro Scognamiglio spoke to the Slovenian, and reported that his first race will likely be Strade Bianche on March 7.
That’s two weeks later than his 2025 debut, giving him even less time to fine tune his fitness through competition.
Being so under-raced compared to his rival is a big, big gamble, particularly if Van der Poel times things right.
And remember – the Dutchman is aiming for San Remo, Flanders and Roubaix. In contrast Pogačar is trying to hold his form all the way until Liège, making the balancing act all the more difficult for him.
Looking at the specifics
Van der Poel defeated Wout Van Aert and Thibau Nys in February to take his seventh world championship title (Photo: Luc Claessen/Getty Images)
So what exactly is Van der Poel planning?
According to Alpecin-Deceuninck’s social post Friday, he will undertake what it terms:
“13 race with the World Championships as the big finale!”
It then clarified that the schedule could be reduced by two.
“Important note: Namur and Benidorm remain provisional. Mathieu will test in the coming days whether he’ll be race-read by 14 December (Namur), while Benidorm will depend on the progress of his road-season preparation.”
Either way, it’s more than his eight-race schedule of last season.
Drilling down into that list, it comprises eight World Cup races, as well as three X20 Trofee events.
The baker’s dozen is completed by the Exact Cross on January 2 and that potential all-time cyclocross world championship record on February 1.
Big cross rival Wout Van Aert is yet to announce his own schedule, but he is thought likely to only ride a small number of cross events.
Instead Van der Poel’s biggest CX rival this time around may turn out to be Thibaut Nys, who dominated last Sunday’s World Cup race in Tábor.
As for Pogačar, their first clash will come in March at the earliest, unless the Slovenian radically shakes up his racing schedule to guarantee he is in absolute peak shape for Milan San Remo.
Mathieu van der Poel’s cyclocross schedule for 2025/2026 season:
December 14: UCI Cyclo-cross World Cup, Namur (TBC)
December 20: UCI Cyclo-cross World Cup, Antwerp
December 21: UCI Cyclo-cross World Cup, Koksijde
December 22: X2O Trofee, Hofstade
December 26: UCI Cyclo-cross World Cup, Gavere
December 29: X2O Trofee, Loenhout
January 1: X2O Trofee, Baal
January 2: Exact Cross, Mol
January 4: UCI Cyclo-cross World Cup, Zonhoven
January 18: UCI Cyclo-cross World Cup, Benidorm (TBC)
January 24: UCI Cyclo-cross World Cup, Maasmechelen
January 25: UCI Cyclo-cross World Cup, Hoogerheide
February 1: UCI Cyclo-cross World Championships, Hulst
Also read: Pogačar Needs a Radical Change to Win Roubaix and San Remo
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