He cautioned that trade data should be taken “with a grain of salt” because tariffs and the US government shutdown have distorted the statistics.
Oxford Economics’ Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport told Al Jazeera that “headline growth was flattered by a large drop in imports which masked underlying weakness in domestic demand” and noted that overall final domestic demand was flat in Q3.
On consumers, BNN Bloomberg cites Capital Economics’ Bradley Saunders as saying the drop in household spending was the largest quarterly decline outside the pandemic in almost two decades, and that the combination of weaker consumption, flat business investment and a soft early read on October GDP shows “the economy is struggling for momentum.”
CBC News reports that Andrew DiCapua, chief economist at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, described the economy as “sickly,” arguing that “households and businesses are still holding back, and the economy hasn’t found the momentum it needs to shift into a higher gear.”
On policy and markets, BMO chief economist Doug Porter wrote, in comments reported by BNN Bloomberg, that the third‑quarter rebound “should quash recession chatter for now,” but said the Bank of Canada is unlikely to change course based on “hit‑and‑miss” details and is likely to stay on the sidelines at its December 10 meeting.