For the first time since 2021, Sunday’s Formula 1 finale in Abu Dhabi will decide the driver’s championship. Three different drivers from two teams have a shot at the title, although only one can guarantee a championship with a specific finish. Here are the scenarios that would need to break for Lando Norris, Max Verstappen, or Oscar Piastri to win the 2025 F1 world driver’s championship.
Norris, the championship leader heading into the race, has the easiest path to victory. Not only would he win the title with a victory, he could still lock up the result with any second or third-place finish. Things get more dicey from fourth on back, where Norris would need some help to secure the title. Since he has a lead of 12 points on Verstappen and 16 on Piastri, he can only secure a championship regardless of outcome by finishing on the podium.
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Since tie-breakers are decided by a count-back of results, and all three drivers have seven wins, second-place finishes should decide any tie. Norris has eight, while Verstappen has six and Piastri has four. That means no driver has a chance of passing another in count-backs unless they win the race Sunday.
Because of this, Verstappen needs to gain 13 points on Norris without letting Piastri gain five points on him. The best way to do that is to win on Sunday, a result that would grant Verstappen his fifth title if Norris finishes fourth or worse. Piastri cannot impact the result if Verstappen wins.
Max Verstappen, seen here winning. Mario Renzi – Formula 1 – Getty Images
If the Dutch driver does not win the race, he can still gain the required 13 points by finishing either second or third, so long as Piastri does not win and Norris finishes eighth (if Verstappen finishes second) or ninth (if Verstappen ends the race in third) in the finale.
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Piastri needs help from both drivers to win from 16 points in back of Norris, but he can take care of Verstappen by winning the race in every situation. If he does that, Norris can still win the title by finishing fifth or better. If Piastri finishes second and Verstappen does not finish in the top three, the Australian driver wins the title only if Norris finishes 10th or worse. Piastri cannot win the title with a result of third or worse at Abu Dhabi.
PHILIPPE LOPEZ – Getty Images
All three drivers have a realistic shot at the championship, but Norris has a solid lead, and should be able to secure the championship with a relatively ordinary performance. Fortunately for Piastri and Verstappen, championship-deciding season finales have often favored chaos. The last title-deciding GP with three or more mathematical contenders was was at this track in 2010. It went to Sebastian Vettel, who entered the race 15 points back of leader Fernando Alonso on race day. Piastri, 16 back heading into the weekend, will have to complete a similar feat.
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