1h agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 3:31amReserve Bank keeps cash rate on hold

The RBA board has left the cash rate on hold at 3.6% in December.

1m agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 4:39amBullock won’t put timing on hike, says ‘meeting by meeting decision’

Asked about how much more inflation data the RBA would need to see before considering a rate hike, Ms Bullock declines to put timing on it.

She notes that if inflation looks to be persistent rather than due to one off items, it raises questions including “how restrictive are financial conditions”.

“We’ve been judging that financial conditions were still a little bit tight.

“If inflation continues to be persistent and looks like it is not coming back down towards the target, then I think that does raise questions about how tight financial conditions are and the board might have to consider whether or not it’s appropriate to keep interest rates where they are or in fact at some point raise them.

“But I wouldn’t put a timing on that. It’s going to be a meeting by meeting decision.”

5m agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 4:35amWe didn’t consider the case for a rate cut at all RBA: Bullock

Ok here we go — straight into the hard questions and Michele Bullock isn’t backing away at all.

“We didn’t consider the case for a rate cut at all.

“We didn’t explicitly consider the case for a rate rise at this meeting, but we did consider and discuss quite a lot the circumstances and what might need to happen if it we would decide that interest rates had to rise again at some point next year.”

So certaintly “no cut” on the table today, Ms Bullock says.

8m agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 4:31amMichele Bullock speaking in Sydney

The RBA governor has stepped up and is delivering her opening remarks.

She said the board is “alert” to the signs of a more broad-based pick up inflation but is cautious on how much signal to take from the new monthly Consumer Price Index figures, which were hotter-than-expected.

12m agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 4:27am

Michele Bullock to face questions on rates outlook

Michele Bullock has avoided Christmas-related tabloid headlines, by failing to deliver either a Christmas present for mortgage borrowers in the form of a rate cut or to play the Grinch by hiking in December.

So it’s likely many of the questions she’ll face will be about the outlook for 2026.

Here’s a view from the room from business editor Michael Janda.

RBA press conference set up (ABC News: Michael Janda)

16m agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 4:24am

RBA Governor Michele Bullock to speak shortly

We’ll be live blogging the RBA governor’s press conference at 3:30pm AEDT and you can also watch it on ABC News Channel:

20m agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 4:20amWhat does the RBA decision mean for housing trends?

Growth in house prices could flatten, says Cotality’s research director Tim Lawless, writing on what could happen to the property market if rates remain on hold.

“An extended period of stable interest rates against a backdrop of rising home values is likely to temper home purchasing demand,” he explained.

“Households on the median income have already seen their lift to borrowing capacity eroded by higher home values.

“Any hawkish shift in the RBA’s tone toward the outlook for interest rates would weigh on confidence and dampen transaction activity.”

Mr Lawless says the most activity will probably remain in the lower end of the market.

“With rates on hold for the foreseeable future, lower quartile home values are likely to remain the stronger segment of the market, as mainstream demand is deflected towards the lower price points amid affordability and serviceability constraints.

“Competition among first home buyers and investors is already seeing values rise faster across the lower price points of the market.

“Conversely, growth in house values across the upper quartile markets of Sydney and Melbourne has already shown signs of flattening as demand funnels towards more affordable housing options.”

22m agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 4:18amInterest rates on hold an ‘expected result’: Treasurer

Treasurer Jim Chalmers spoke a short time ago, saying the ‘on hold’ decision was an expected result.

“A lot of Australians would have wanted some more rate relief but they wouldn’t have expected it,” Chalmers said.

He noted the RBA’s mention of private demand, saying the “heavy lifting” in the economy is now being done by the private sector.

“We want to see this inflation moderate more, but it is only a bit over half what we inherited when we came to office, so Australians have made a lot of progress together on inflation, on real wages, on this recovery in the private sector,” the treasurer said.

“We know there is more work to do and there are elements of the Reserve Bank statement that make this clear.”

28m agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 4:12am

Market still pricing in rate hike by August

Market pricing for interest rate  hikes is not much changed from pre-RBA decision, a quick check of Bloomberg reveals.

An 0.25 percentage point rate hike is fully priced in by August 2026

32m agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 4:07amEconomists divided on direction of next RBA move

The analyst notes hitting our inboxes have wildly different views on what the Reserve Bank will do next.

Callam Pickering, APAC economist at Indeed says if inflation persists, they may have to hike rates at the next board meeting in February.

“If high inflation persists through December and January, then the RBA may have no choice but to hike rates when they meet in February. A failure to do so would ultimately undermine their credibility as an inflation targeting central bank.”

“High inflation is incredibly damaging to an economy, impacting every business and household, but the burden falls primarily on lower income households and small businesses. Higher interest rates won’t be welcomed – they never are – but at least the burden of higher rates primarily falls on middle and higher income earners.”

PIMCO Head of Australia Portfolio Management, Adam Bowe, says it’s ‘premature’ to conclude the easing cycle is over.

“Pauses are common features of RBA monetary policy cycles, both on the way up and the way down. As households and businesses remove expectations of lower interest rates from their spending plans for 2026 we expect the growth and inflation data to moderate.”

Meanwhile, the Australia Institute’s chief economist Greg Jericho says cuts are just as likely as hikes in 2026.

“The inflation increase in October, from 3.6% to 3.8%, was largely a one-off response to the ending of power bill subsidies. That isn’t a trend,” he said.

“The truth is, market predictions of rate hikes and cuts will swing with new data on inflation, economic growth, real wages and unemployment.”

40m agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 3:59amASX, Aussie dollar barely budge on RBA hold

There’s been a pretty muted reaction on markets to the RBA’s (widely anticipated) decision to keep the cash rate on hold.

At 2.30pm AEDT the ASX 200 had a very, very brief spike but is now pretty much where it was before the decision, around 0.2% weaker at 8,606 points.

ASX 200 on Tuesday (LSEG Refinitiv)

The Aussie dollar is steady around 66.25 US cents.

45m agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 3:55am

RBA could still cut rates in 2026, says economist

Going against the forecasts of most economists and the markets, KPMG says there is still an opportunity for the RBA to cut rates in 2026. 

“Although the likelihood of a further rate cut has diminished, KPMG still believes that there may be an opportunity for the RBA to cut rates further in the first half of 2026,” said KPMG chief economist Dr Brendan Rynne.

He says it will depend on how fiscal policy plays out over the coming months and whether the transition of demand from the public sector to the private sector continues.

KPMG analysis (which removes electricity rebates from the CPI calculations) suggests headline inflation is about 3.2% (instead of 3.8%) and that the growth in inflation has been slowing in each 3 month period of the past year. This suggests that as the high monthly volatility drops out as the year progresses, inflation will fall closer to the RBA target band.

“While the pace of economic growth is not stellar, there is evidence that in the current low-productivity environment it is still exerting upward pressure on prices.

This, together with continued price growth in the non-market sector of the economy, is likely to keep inflation at the upper end of the target band in the near term, reducing the likelihood of reaching the mid-point of 2.5% being targeted by the RBA and providing an opportunity for another rate cut.”

Mr Rynne says today’s decision to keep rates on hold was the right call.

“While it might not be the news mortgage holders were looking for, the RBA was right in holding off on any change to the cash rate, be that up or down,” said KPMG chief economist Dr Brendan Rynne.

“We believe the RBA should continue to wait for the next few months to better understand whether the recent rises in inflation are the start of an upward trend or a temporary blip that will dissipate.”

50m agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 3:50amRBA will tighten policy as soon as February: Capital Economics

Initial notes are filtering through and this one from Capital Economics has just hit the inbox.

“The RBA sounded concerned about upside risks to inflation when it left its policy rate unchanged today and we now believe that its next move will be rate hike,” they wrote in a note.

They describe the RBA’s statement as “rather hawkish”.

“While the Bank noted that some of the recent pick-up in underlying inflation was due to temporary factors, it argued that the ‘data do suggest some signs of a more broadly based pick-up in inflation, part of which may be persistent and will bear close monitoring’,” Capital Economics wrote.

“It’s possible that the RBA will just sit out the current strength in underlying inflation.

“However, this is a risky strategy…

“The [Central] Bank noted that it will take its time to assess the strength of underlying inflationary pressures and highlighted that it still expects a further easing of the labour market.

“Given the renewed pick-up in economic activity, that’s unlikely to materialise though and we expect the Bank to hike its policy rate again as soon as February.”

55m agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 3:45am

‘Effects of earlier interest rate reductions are yet to flow through fully’

If there’s one thing that would be worrying the Reserve Bank, it’s that the recent pick-up in economic growth and inflation has taken place despite the lagged effect of interest rates, which often taken between 12-18 months to have their full effect on the economy.

“Financial conditions have eased since the beginning of the year, credit is readily available to both households and businesses and the effects of earlier interest rate reductions are yet to flow through fully to demand, prices and wages,” the RBA’s board notes in its post-meeting statement.

That would suggest the need to get ahead of the curve and raise rates sooner rather than later, if inflation is indeed again becoming problematic.

“On the other hand, money market interest rates and government bond yields have risen more recently,” the RBA adds.

That is the bank’s way of saying that financial markets are already doing some of its work for it, as market rates rise, especially longer-term interest rates.

1h agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 3:37am

How has the RBA’s cash rate tracked?

Here’s how the RBA’s cash rate has been tracking — today’s ‘on hold’ decision leaves it steady at 3.6% heading into 2026, the third straight meeting of no change from the central bank.

1h agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 3:35amRBA board says ‘appropriate to remain cautious’ on rates

The Reserve Bank’s monetary policy board has played about as much of a straight bat as it can on the outlook for interest rates.

“The recent data suggest the risks to inflation have tilted to the upside, but it will take a little longer to assess the persistence of inflationary pressures,” the post-meeting statement notes.

“Private demand is recovering. Labour market conditions still appear a little tight but further modest easing is expected.

“The board therefore judged that it was appropriate to remain cautious, updating its view of the outlook as the data evolve.

“The board will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of the outlook and risks to guide its decisions.”

In plain English — there’s a chance inflation is getting a bit out of hand, but we’ll want to wait until at least the December quarter inflation data comes out in late January to be more certain.

In other words, a rate hike in February is a possibility, but it doesn’t feel like the RBA board is itching to press the trigger.

It all depends on the economic data between now and then.

1h agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 3:34amInflation has picked up more recently: RBA

The RBA’s post-meeting statement begins where you’d expect — inflation:

“While inflation has fallen substantially since its peak in 2022, it has picked up more recently.

“The Board’s judgement is that some of the recent increase in underlying inflation was due to temporary factors and there is uncertainty about how much signal to take from the monthly CPI data given it is a new data series.

“Nevertheless, the data do suggest some signs of a more broadly based pick-up in inflation, part of which may be persistent and will bear close monitoring.”

1h agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 3:32amUnanimous ‘on hold’ decision

The RBA’s monetary policy board was unanimous in its decision, according to its post-meeting statement.

1h agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 3:30amBreaking: RBA keeps cash rate on hold at 3.6% in December

The Reserve Bank has kept the cash rate on hold at 3.6% at its final meeting of 2025.

1h agoTue 9 Dec 2025 at 3:29am

Live coverage on ABC News Channel

My colleagues Alicia Barry and David Taylor are bringing you live coverage on the RBA decision — you can watch ABC News Channel at the top of this blog!