Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions

Even with gold and silver prices surging 60 per cent and 100 per cent, respectively, thus far this year, equity analysts at National Bank Financial continue to forecast “strong support” for precious metals prices through 2026, pointing to “rising levels of sovereign debt, persistent inflation, a weaker USD, continued pressure for lower rates and strong physical demand from Central Banks/stablecoins.”

In a research report released Tuesday titled Uncorking A Year of Champagne Problems, the firm raised their near-term gold and silver price assumptions to US$4,500 per ounce and US$60 per ounce, respectively, from US$4,000 and US$50 previously. Their long-term projections jumped to US$3,000 and US$37.50 from US$2,750 and US$32.50.

“Gold equities remain attractively valued compared to historical multiples and versus other sectors. Precious metal equities remain under-invested as an asset class and with risks to the broader economy and potential for further slowdown in AI, we could see increased demand in 2026 from the broader market repositioning to get to market weight. Names most undervalued relative to historical levels with potential for re-rating include: ABX, EDR, EDV, EQX, FVI, NEM and RGLD.

“As we outlined in our recent thematic report ‘Higher Metal Prices and Cut-Off Grades’, with gold and silver hitting record highs, miners are set to generate more cash flow than ever before. While the benefits of higher metal prices may appear evident, there are numerous decisions that may impact mine plans. As companies prepare their 2026 budgets and guidance, we remind investors how rising metal prices may influence operating plans and that the path to higher cash flows isn’t always linear. Therefore, some moderation of expectations may be needed.”

The analysts think elevated cash flow across the sector “allows for increasing distributions to shareholders” while also seeing “conditions favourable for continued consolation.”

“Throughout 2025, disciplined cost control and share repurchases have been rewarded by the broader market and further increases are expected to be well received, particularly by generalist investors,” they said. “Names where we see potential to return the highest percentage of FCF to shareholders include: ABX, AUGO, CG, EDV and NEM. We also see the possibility for: AGI, ELE, KNT, IMG, OR and WDO to initiate material dividend/share buyback policies in the coming months.

“Reinvesting in growth and returning cash to shareholders won’t be the only options available to the sector as we believe the market remains well positioned to deliver continued consolidation. Development assets remain at discounted valuations, and growth opportunities and regional synergies will continue to drive M&A appeal. With a challenging royalty/stream origination environment, we continue to see consolidation within the royalty sector as well. Names we view as potential acquirers include: AEM, ELE, EDV, FNV, LUG, NEM, PAAS, TXG and WDO. Potential acquisition targets include: ABRA, AMX, ARTG, AYA, IMG, KNT, LGD, NEXG, MTA, ODV, PPTA, PRB, RUP, SGD, VMET.”

In the report, the analysts raised their target prices for the majority of precious metals equities in their coverage universe to reflect their bullish view and new price deck assumptions. They also revealed their top picks for the year-ahead, which are:

Top picks based on discounted valuation and free cash flow generation

* Barrick Mining Corp. (ABX-T) with an “outperform” rating and $77.50 target, up from $65. The average target on the Street is $62.94, according to LSEG data.

Analyst Shane Nagle: “Barrick shares continue to trade at a discounted 4.5 times EV/2026E EBITDA compared with large-cap peers at 6.2 times. Results from ongoing cost control efforts, resumption in production from Loulo-Gounkoto and future resource growth and development progress at Fourmile will continue to support a re-rating. With a retooled focus on growing gold production in the Americas (centred around Nevada Gold Mines), we see the potential for more sustainable multiple expansion going forward.”

* Elemental Royalty Corp. (ELE-X) with an “outperform” rating and $30 target, up from $27.50. Average:

Mr. Nagle: “The recently closed merger with EMX improves Elemental’s near-term growth outlook and adds additional scale. With access to low-cost forms of capital from their largest shareholder (tether), we continue to see an opportunity to further diversify the portfolio through future asset acquisitions and/or continued consolidation of the Junior royalty space. The ability to return excess cash to shareholders, and advancement of projects on key royalties like Timok, Karlawinda and Caserones should support a re-rating from its currently discounted 0.95x NAV multiple to at least that of Junior peers at 1.13 times.

* IAMGOLD Corp. (IMG-T) with an “outperform” rating and $28 target, up from $23. Average: $31.

Analyst Mohamed Sidibé: “IAMGOLD offers a high-quality Canadian gold portfolio anchored by Côté Gold and Gosselin, with Burkina risk diminishing as Essakane approaches end-of-life. The recently announced buyback signals confidence in its FCF outlook as we expect more returns in 2026, supported by cost improvements and operational execution at Côté. Exploration upside at Gosselin (super pit potential) and Nelligan mining complex, combined with a clear path to deleveraging and long-term NAV growth, positions IMG for material re-rating and as a clear M&A target. Trading at 0.79 times P/NAV and 4.4 times EV/2026E EBITDA vs. peers at 0.85 times and 4.9 times, IMG offers compelling valuation upside. FCF next year is very attractive at 18 per cent vs. peers at 12 per cent.”

* Torex Gold Resources Inc. (TXG-T) with an “outperform” rating and $85 target, down from $90. Average: $80.81.

Analyst Don DeMarco: “Morelos flirting with world-class status with over 500 oz/year for more than 10 years, AISC in the lower half of the industry cost curve, with prospective land package underscoring potential for organic reserve growth. Transitioned to positive FCF in June 2025, with Media Luna currently ramping-up. Mining rates on track for 7,500 tpd by Q3/26 and expecting rapid de-leveraging to follow. Announced an inaugural quarterly dividend in Q3/25 reporting of 15 cents per share (1.0-per-cent annualized yield). Sizable reserves 5.1 million oz AuEq at 3.92 g/t, plus an additional 4.5 million oz AuEq in M&I+Inferred. TXG has a proven track-record of replacing mined ounces year after year. Organic production growth on the order of over 100 koz/year via the Atzcala oxide/heap leach target subject to planned drill testing. We see potential to backfill production of 450-500 koz through 2033 and beyond.”

Top Growth Picks for 2026

* Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI-T) with an “outperform” rating and $68 target, up from $64. Average: $62.61.

Mr. DeMarco: “Positioned to regain favourable sentiment and premium valuation after consolidated production (NBCMe 564k oz) tracking at the lower end of the revised FY25G range of 560-580k oz after transition quarters. Expect operating traction to continue improving in Q4/25 with AISC expected to rebound 4 per cent lower quarter-over-quarter (was 7 per cent lower Q/Q in Q3/25); and continued de-risking at the Magino mill ramp-up. Moreover, the Island Gold ramp-up over the N3Y shows increasing production paired with an accentuated increase in FCF. N3Y production CAGR at 13 per cent, increasing from 264k oz in 2025 to 807k oz in 2028; and N3Y FCF CAGR at 88 per cent, increasing from US$247 million in 2025 to US$1,590 million in 2028 (at $4,000/oz). Additional catalyst with Magino 20k tpd expansion study catalyst at ~Q1/26 to further accentuate multi-year FCF growth on growing production and wider margins from a decreasing cost profile.”

* Endeavour Silver Corp. (EDR-T) with an “outperform” rating and $21 target, up from $18. Average: $14.82.

Analyst Alex Terentiew: “We continue to view Endeavour Silver as our Top Pick within the silver coverage universe due to its relatively discounted valuation, peer-leading growth profile as Terronera ramps-up and Kolpa is preparing to expand in 2H/26, and expected transition to a state of positive FCF. With the start-up of Terronera now largely in the rear-view mirror, the development of Pitarrilla taking a greater focus, a strong balance sheet, and attractive valuation, we expect Endeavour Silver to narrow its valuation gap with its larger peers over the course of 2026.”

* Equinox Gold Corp. (EQX-T) with an “outperform” rating and $28 target, up from $23. Average: $20.19.

Mr. Sidibé: “Equinox is set up for a re-rating as it executes on guidance and ramps up Greenstone and Valentine, moving into a strong free cash flow phase post-Calibre merger. The merger improves jurisdiction mix and operational reset, while valuation remains compelling at a discount to peers. We expect a disciplined capital allocation with deleveraging and potential shareholder returns, and portfolio optimization that could concentrate NAV in Tier-1 jurisdictions with the development of Castle Mountain Phase 2 and Valentine Phase 2. Trading at 0.70 times P/NAV and 4.1 times EV/2026E EBITDA vs. peers at 0.85 times and 4.9 times, EQX offers compelling valuation upside. FCF next year is very attractive at 17 per cent vs. peers at 12 per cent.”

* G Mining Ventures Corp. (GMIN-T) with an “outperform” rating and $45 target, up from $40. Average: $40.58.

Analyst Rabi Nizami: “G Mining continues to be a high conviction growth pick, given the team’s now-proven execution abilities and a clear, fully permitted and financed runway ahead to demonstrate another successful build at a larger project in Oko West. We expect the TZ operations to reach steady state in 2026 and see visibility for construction of Oko West to drive a re-rate over the next two years. G Mining is currently trading at 9.3 times EV/EBITDA 2026 based on TZ operations alone. At constant gold prices, EBITDA is set to increase 2-3 times to more than 1.5 billion annually upon the addition of Oko West from 2028. We also see growth optionality in the Gurupi Gold project, which already hosts a sizeable and growing resource of 2.6Moz at 1.3g/t, and may be afforded a higher valuation by the market upon disclosure of exploration and engineering studies anticipated next year.”

* Versamet Royalties Corp. (VMET-X) with an “outperform” rating and $15 target, up from $14. Average: $14.50.

Mr. Terentiew: “We view Versamet as having one of the best near-term growth stories in the junior royalty space, with the Kiaka and Toega gold mines ramping up production, Kolpa set to expand, and the newly acquired stream at Rosh Pinah and royalty at Santa Rita taking GEO growth from 10-11 kGEOs in 2025 to 21 kGEOs in 2026. The company’s valuation also remains attractive, trading at a P/NAV of 1.25x and 2026 P/CF and EV/EBITDA of 11.9 times and 10.2 times, respectively.”

For other senior producers, the analysts’ changes are:

Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM-T, “outperform”) to $300 from $285. Average:B2Gold Corp. (BTO-T, “outperform”) to $10 from $9.25. Average:Endeavour Mining Corp. (EDV-T, “outperform”) to $88 from $76. Average:Kinross Gold Corp. (K-T, “outperform”) to $50 from $46. Average:Newmont Corp. (NEM-N, “outperform”) to US$120 from US$110. Average:

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RBC Dominion Securities analyst Irene Nattel thinks the Canadian economic backdrop points to” very modest” overall consumer spending growth in 2026, believing slower immigration is offset by “higher per capita spend, improvements in unemployment rates, moderating debt service headwinds and relatively solid consumer balance sheets, notably among wealthier cohorts.”

“We maintain a cautious outlook on Canadian consumer spending in 2026 reflecting regional and demographic disparities,” she added. “Household consumption is expected to remain historically strong, although growth is expected to remain tepid with uneven economic growth across income groups. Easing mortgage renewal headwinds, lower non-mortgage debt payments, and strong financial markets are improving household balance sheets for higher-income households, while lower-income households continue to struggle, reinforcing a k-shaped recovery. Although labour market weakness poses a downside risk, it should be noted that unemployment is being driven by slower hiring rather than layoffs, and a gradual improvement should support income and spending power, but bias remains toward value-seeking consumer behaviour given cumulative impacts of inflation.”

In a year-end report released before the bell, Ms. Nattel said her “positioning” from an investing perspective heading into the new year is “broadly consistent the dominant post-pandemic theme: against the backdrop of muted and value-oriented consumer spending, our primary focus remains on secular winners with sustainable, ratable growth, and sector-leading ROIC.”

“Notable valuation re-rating in select names sustainable, in our view, reflecting a combination of: i) sustained flow of funds toward more cyclical stories as visibility on the macro situation improves; ii) tariff-risk relief and consumers allocating limited discretionary dollars toward affordable, feel-good, small luxuries (ATZ, GRGD); and iii) investors seeking refuge in consistent, visible, predictable growth (DOL), the latter further boosted by significant go-forward optionality not yet contributing meaningfully to the earnings profile,” she added. “Against this backdrop, we narrow our best ideas for 2026 to: i) L as our overall best idea; ii) DOL as best positioned to cater to a value-oriented consumer; iii) ATD as our best large cap laggard with valuation re-rating potential as KPIs improve; iv) ATZ and GIL as our best mid-cap/discretionary idea; and v) PET, PBH and JWEL as our best potential SMID-cap re-rating ideas, each with specific catalysts and opportunities.”

Ms. Nattel expressed her preference for “large-cap, quality growth over deep value, with our best large-cap ideas positioned to capitalize on value-oriented consumer spending trends and gain share of wallet.” They include:

* Loblaw Companies Ltd. (L-T) with an “outperform” rating and $68 target. The average on the Street is $65.16.

Analyst: “Our best idea overall: As a dominant Canadian retailer and clear leader in food, notably private label and the discount channel, and with a leadership position in pharmacy from which to leverage expanding scope of service, in our view, Loblaw is exceptionally well-positioned to capitalize on current and evolving trends in consumer spending and demographics.”

* Dollarama Inc. (DOL-T) with an “outperform” rating and $220 target. Average: $214.50.

Analyst: “Our best quality growth idea: Dollarama is uniquely positioned to continue gaining share of wallet as consumers hunt for value. In our view, valuation should stabilize toward the high end of the long-term range as investors seek refuge in ratable, predictable, and sustainable growth stories. Current valuation further underpinned by optionality of Mexico and Australia medium- to long-term opportunities, largely incremental to financial forecasts and target valuation.”

* Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. (ATD-T) with an “outperform” rating and $91 target. Average: $85.17.

Analyst: “Our best large-cap re-rating idea: As one of the few large-cap laggards, ATD valuation looks compelling in our view, with recent green shoots of improvements in underlying KPIs, a likely precursor to higher investor conviction and potential re-rating. Balance sheet capacity $15-billion, annual FCF $3-billion-plus provide ample liquidity to fund growth including potential M&A not in our forecasts, grow the dividend and accelerate the NCIB.”

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National Bank Financial analyst Vishal Shreedhar sees Maple Leaf Foods Inc.’s (MFI-T) announcement of an “unexpected” special dividend “nice but not optimal.”

On Monday before the bell, the Mississauga-based company revealed it will pay shareholders 60 cents per share on Dec. 19 to shareholders of record at the close of business on Dec. 15 in addition to its regular quarterly dividend, pointing to its strong financial position and confidence in its outlook.

“While the balance sheet impact is not significant, we believe there are more efficient uses of capital to create shareholder value, including share repurchases (upsized NCIB),” said Mr. Shreedhar. In our view, share repurchases can create more shareholder value, particularly when shares are repurchased at attractive levels.

“That said, we understand that MFI elected for a special dividend due, in part, to tax considerations (recent ‘butterfly’ spin-out of Canada Packers Inc. temporarily limits substantial stock buybacks). Special dividends are not unprecedented for consumer stocks; for instance, Leon’s Furniture declared a special dividend in 2021. That said, we note that the typical expectation, particularly for consumer staples, is for a growing, predictable dividend, rather than special dividend declarations (investors do not reflect special dividends in the fair value return expectation).”

Maintaining his “outperform” rating for Maple Leaf shares, Mr. Shreedhar trimmed his target to $1 to $33 to reflect the debt burden resulting from the payout. The average on the Street is

“MFI is a company undergoing transformative change, and we are intrigued by the prospects. We acknowledge heightened risk, predominantly due to execution (given a long-term track record of underperformance) and commodity volatility,” he said.

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TD Cowen analyst Sean Steuart thinks Transcontinental Inc.’s (TCL-A-T) sale of its flagship packaging business to privately held, Cincinnati, Ohio-based ProAmpac Holdings Inc. for slightly more than $2.2-billion is “transformational” and offers “attractive valuation terms” while realizing value not previously reflected in its trading multiple.

“In our view, TCL is selling the Packaging business at an attractive valuation,” he said. “At a $2.22-billion enterprise value (including assumed debt), the implied valuation is attractive at 8.7 times EV/EBITDA. This is at the top end of our previously published sum-of-the-parts range for this segment.

“The decision was motivated by flexible packaging growth constraints and a trading value disconnect. As a mid-scale player in an increasingly competitive industry, TCL struggled to find value-accretive growth options. On the conference call, management underscored the gap between the company’s trading multiple (5.0 times 2026 estimated EV/EBITDA before Monday’s announcement) and valuation parameters for prospective packaging deals. We note that TCL paused packaging acquisitions since fiscal 2022.”

Mr. Steuart now sees the Montreal-based company transforming into “a smaller-cap equity refocused around its legacy Retail Services, Printing and Media segments.”

“We believe that the ‘stub’ Retail Services, Printing and Media business segments carry an EV of $1.04 billion and a net residual equity value of $8.00/share (after the special distribution),” he noted. “The company plans an adjusted annual dividend starting point of $0.24/share after the transaction closes and following the special distribution ($0.90/share current regular dividend). This would be less than 20 per cent of our pro forma annual FCF/share estimate. Pro forma net debt/EBITDA of 1.7 times is low.”

Maintaining his “buy” rating for Transcontinental shares, Mr. Steuart raised his target to $28 from $27, which is the current average on the Street.

“The positive share price reaction [up 19.1 per cent on Monday] to the planned sale of the Packaging segment and associated $20/share special cash distribution crystallizes some previously underappreciated value, but we still see upside from current levels,” he concluded. “The company has pivoted towards growth in business lines with structural demand tailwinds (e.g., in-store marketing and educational media) to mitigate top-line erosion for other printing and publishing business units. Legacy businesses offer investors a resilient base of recurring free cash flow (FCF). TCL’s FCF yield history is exceptional (annual average FCF yield is 15.6 per cent over the past 11 years). At our stub value target price, we forecast a pro forma 2026 FCF yield of 20.1 per cent versus an estimated 9.0 per cent for the peer group. We believe the company’s flexible balance sheet provides options to couple opportunistic bolt-on acquisitions with returns of capital to shareholders (buybacks plus growth to the regular dividend).”

Elsewhere, other analysts making target revisions:

* Scotia’s Maher Yaghi to $26 from $23.25 with a “sector perform” rating.

“This transaction is accretive when compared with the 7.5-times multiple at which we valued the packaging business. Proceeds from the sale will be used to return capital to shareholders through dividends ($1.7-billion) and deleveraging ($0.4-billion). We believe the odds of closing are high. We expect the remaining business post-closing to exhibit low-single-digit organic top-line declines with likely a stable EBITDA profile. Our new target price of $26 reflects the added value created by the sale ($20/sh dividend) plus a 4-times multiple on the remaining business. While some upside remains, we expect shareholder churn to be elevated in the coming period given the change in the company’s growth profile and the expected market cap of the remaining entity, which could reduce liquidity and have implications for index inclusion. Our Scotiabank GBM Portfolio and Quantitative Strategy team expects potential disposition of 3.4 million shares in the event of TCL being removed from the TSX index (highly likely) and potentially more should it be removed from other indices,” said Mr. Yaghi.

* National Bank’s Adam Shine to $28 from $24 with an “outperform” rating.

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Energy equity analysts at Raymond James recommend investors “tactically rotate” out of the oil exploration and production space and into other energy subsectors.

In a client report released Tuesday, the group said commodities and equities have diverged in “a rare turn of events,” leading them to suggest movement into, in order of preference, Oilfield Services, Energy Infrastructure, Gas E&P, Royalties, and Integrated/Oil Sands.”

“Through our conversations with investors over the last few months, one of the most common questions we’ve had is why Canadian energy equities have significantly outperformed the underlying commodities in 2025,” they said. “It’s a fair question to be asking, particularly given how much the equities and commodity have diverged … XEG is up almost 15 per cent year-to-date while WTI (in C$) is down approximately 19 per cent . Interestingly, the correlation between the stocks and commodity has now go negative, and hasn’t been this negative in at least 15 years (likely much longer). We also find similar results when we look at this on an individual equity basis.”

Based on their analysis, the analysts emphasized two important takeaways for investors: “.First, it’s true that all energy subsectors have outperformed what our regression estimate would suggest is a ‘normal return’ given what’s happening with the underlying commodities, even after making certain adjustments. At the same time, there is plenty of merit behind some degree of outperformance given the improving political backdrop, visibility around more egress, and M&A activity – we therefore still see good value in select stocks and subsectors! The second big takeaway is that the Oil E&P space has seen relative outperformance meaningfully eclipse that of other subsectors, and we think it has gotten a little overdone.”

Given the recent move in equities and a shift in their “view of relative value,” the analysts made a series of rating changes on Tuesday.

They upgraded these stocks:

Advantage Energy Ltd. (AAV-T) to “outperform” from “market perform” with a $15 target, up from $13. The average on the Street is $13.79.Freehold Royalties Ltd. (FRU-T) to “outperform” from “market perform” with $17.50 target, up from $14.50. Average: $16.11.PrairieSky Royalty Ltd. (PSK-T) to “outperform” from “market perform” with a $35 target, up from $30. Average: $32.17.

The analysts downgraded these stocks:

Headwater Exploration Inc. (HWX-T) to “market perform” from “outperform” with a $9.50 target, up from $9. Average: $9.60.Imperial Oil Ltd. (IMO-T) to “underperform” from “market perform” with a $111 target, up from $110. Average: $109.40.Mullen Group Ltd. (MTL-T) to “market perform” from “outperform” with a $16.25 target. Average: $16.44.Surge Energy Inc. (SGY-T) to “market perform” from “outperform” with a $9 target. Average: $9.Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. (TVE-T) to “market perform” from “outperform” with a $9 target. Average: $8.56.Trican Well Service Ltd. (TCW-T) to “market perform” from “outperform” with a $6.25 target. Average: $6.99.