First, let’s credit Jake Paul for what he has already achieved. If transforming yourself from a YouTuber who dabbles in sports to a serviceable pro athlete were easy, more people would do it.
He may never win a major world title, or defeat a top-flight boxer within hollering distance of his prime, but he has cracked the top 100 in Boxrec’s cruiserweight rankings. It’s not everything, but it’s something.
And, as any sports fan with an internet connection knows, Paul is signed to face former heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua next Friday in Miami, in the main event of a fight card that will stream on Netflix. So credit Paul again for accepting a risk instead of placing himself once more on the A-side of a mismatch dressed up as a credible boxing contest.
To prepare for the toughest bout of his career, Paul flew an impressive list of heavyweight contenders to his training compound in Puerto Rico to serve as sparring partners.
Frank Sanchez, aka The Cuban Flash.
Jarrett Anderson, once touted as America’s next great heavyweight.
Martin Bakole, a 280-pound battering ram of a man who pounded the fight out of Anderson when they met 2024. Props to Paul once more, for opting to learn first-hand how it feels to share the ring with a heavyweight who has the advantage in every measurable, including experience.
Joshua celebrates his victory after the against Francis Ngannou on March 08, 2024 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (Richard Pelham/Getty Images)Joshua peaked in late 2010s
Granted, Joshua peaked in the late 2010s, and was knocked out by Daniel Dubois in his most recent bout, 15 months ago. But he’s not as washed as the typical Paul opponent – Ronald Reagan was president when Mike Tyson reached his prime – and he’s still a hell of a test to take without studying.
But the rest of us, if we’ve done our homework, know it won’t matter.
If you’re looking for a competitive boxing match on Dec 19, focus on the co-feature, which pits super featherweight champion Alycia Baumgardner against challenger Leila Beaudoin of Temiscouata, Que.
Behind the Netflix hype around the main event lie real disparities in experience, ring IQ and raw punching power. These are gaps Paul likely can’t close in a single training camp, regardless of the quality of his sparring partners. So if this high-stakes showdown devolves into a one-sided mauling in front of a massive online audience, we can’t act surprised. We just need to listen to what the facts are trying to tell us.
Replace Paul with one of his boxrec neighbours and we don’t even bother handicapping this fight. We’re actually more likely to skewer Joshua’s choice of opponent, because a world-level heavyweight with his sights on one last title run has no business facing a third-tier cruiserweight. Not even in a bounce-back fight after a 15-month layoff.
But because that cruiserweight is Jake Paul, who brings with him Netflix and their megabucks, the venture makes sense for Joshua, who won Olympic gold in 2012. And because it’s Paul, there’s a temptation to talk ourselves into thinking he has a chance, because he’s well-known, and in the social media era clout passes for competence.
Joshua’s record tells us there are ways to beat him. Andy Ruiz employed top-tier handspeed when they met in 2019. Oleksandr Usyk did it with elite footwork and ring generalship; Daniel Dubois with pure power. But relative to top-10 boxers, Paul doesn’t over-index on any of those attributes. In his most recent bout he outlasted Julio Cesar Chavez – who peaked 13 years and three weight classes ago – but struggled in the late rounds, when Chavez made a tactical adjustment Paul seemed not to anticipate.
He started punching.
Joshua probably won’t wait until Round 6 to unleash his offence, and if the audience doesn’t understand the difference between “serviceable” and “world class,” we might all learn next Friday.
None of the details we’ve just outlined fit the opponent selection formula Paul normally follows, so how, exactly, did he wind up facing a recent-vintage former champ with one-punch knockout power in both hands?
Mike Tyson, left and Paul fight during their Netflix bout AT&T Stadium on Nov. 15, 2024 in Arlington, Texas. (Al Bello/Getty Images for Netflix)Ideal Paul opponent
Let’s remember that Gervonta “Tank” Davis, the WBA lightweight champion, was Paul’s original opponent, in a bout scheduled for mid-November. He represented a slight departure from the routine in that, at 30, he was still in his prime. But Davis had never competed above 140 pounds, where Paul aimed to weigh in at 195.
Davis is also the opposite of a volume puncher, preferring instead to probe patiently for an opening, then stop you with laser-guided power punches. He also agreed to the bout amid speculation that he was mentally checked out of the sport, and wanted a massive payday to catapult him into retirement.
In other words, he was an ideal Paul opponent: undersized, possibly unmotivated, inclined to fight at a slow pace, but undefeated and well-known.
Then in late October Davis was sued by an ex-girlfriend, alleging he assaulted her inside a Miami strip club. Paul dropped him as an opponent, pushed the fight date to Dec. 19, and began a frantic search for a new partner.
For a lower-wattage event, Paul might have been able to plug in a replacement opponent who fits the profile – a big name on the wrong side of 40, championship boxing experience optional. But with Netflix lending this program its streaming reach (Paul vs Mike Tyson recorded 65 million concurrent views), and backstopping it with their cash, the fight didn’t just need another star. It needed an attraction.
Enter Joshua, whose April 2017 bout against Wladimir Klitschko drew 90,000 spectators to Wembley Stadium in London.
He also brings size — at 6-foot-6, he’s contracted to weight 245 pounds — and that highlight-reel punching power. Only three of his 28 wins have gone the distance.
So next week’s bout could likely serve as a reality check for Paul. The last time he faced an opponent who wasn’t handpicked for his deficiencies was February of 2023, when he lost an eight-round decision to Tommy Fury. It’s not clear how he’ll fare against another opponent who is talented and skilled and healthy and training full-time.
It’s also a crash-course in the boxing business for Netflix, which is betting big on live sports. Can you imagine the Washington Commanders getting themselves cancelled from their Christmas Day showdown against Dallas on Netflix? And can you see the Cowboys lining up a division III college team as a late replacement and expecting fans and Netflix to accept it?
Of course not, because normal pro sports are organized, with defined schedules. Boxing has countless promoters, and matchmaking is beholden to the whims of a rotating cast of power brokers. It’s as structured as a battle royal.
But boardrooms aside, the action in the ring is pretty simple to understand.
If boxing is The Sweet Science of Bruising, then Paul has spent the last month in a laboratory, and that black eye he’s been sporting lately proves he’s learning pugilism the hard way.
And next week’s bout is shaping up as yet another painful lesson.