Suncor Energy has laid out an ambitious production and capital plan for 2026, forecasting a meaningful jump in oil and gas output as efficiencies improve across its oilsands and downstream assets. The Calgary-based producer said Thursday it expects upstream production to rise to 840,000–870,000 barrels per day, up from its 2025 range of 810,000–840,000 bpd, positioning the company for its strongest output in years.
The increase will be supported by major turnaround activity at Firebag and scheduled maintenance at Base Plant, Syncrude, and Fort Hills, as well as continued optimization across Suncor’s refining network. Downstream utilization is expected to average 99% to 102%, reflecting materially improved reliability—one of the core goals set by CEO Rich Kruger since taking over in 2023.
Capex is set to decline slightly next year, falling to C$5.6–C$5.8 billion, from C$6.1–C$6.3 billion in 2025. Spending will continue to focus on high-return oilsands projects, including in-situ well pads, Mildred Lake East, Fort Hills North Pit development, and the West White Rose project offshore Newfoundland, as well as the ongoing Petro-Canada retail network optimization.
Suncor also continues its aggressive shareholder-return strategy. The company raised its monthly share buybacks by 10% in December to C$275 million, projecting C$3.3 billion in repurchases next year—part of a multiyear plan to return all free cash flow to investors after dividends. Since 2022, Suncor has paid C$10.2 billion in dividends and repurchased C$12.5 billion in stock, equal to roughly 30% of its market capitalization.
Kruger’s operational overhaul has rapidly boosted efficiency, lowered breakeven prices, and driven steady cash-flow growth despite softer oil markets. Suncor has already achieved roughly 70% of its three-year goals: lifting normalized free funds flow by C$3.3 billion and reducing corporate breakeven by $10/bbl.
The company remains well-positioned among North America’s lowest-cost producers, with large, long-life oilsands assets and minimal decline rates. Analysts say rising efficiency and strong returns make Suncor undervalued relative to Canadian peers such as Canadian Natural Resources and Imperial Oil. Some even see up to 30% upside from current pricing, supported by a healthier balance sheet and robust shareholder distributions.