As we run further into the NFL’s marathon regular season, the Sunday TV lineups become more of a mystery box. Yeah, the league’s broadcasters can flex a game into prime time, but they can’t outright rearrange matchups, so late-season slop is always a risk. Fear not, because that mystery box is particularly kind to this upcoming Sunday.

The two teams tied atop the AFC have seismic home tests against playoff perennials. The Denver Broncos (11-2) await the Green Bay Packers (9-3-1) at Mile High, while the New England Patriots (11-2) host reigning MVP Josh Allen and his rival Buffalo Bills (9-4). That two-piece would be enough to anchor a Sunday, but the NFC Westers dueling on the conference rooftop also have important home looks, each with a motivated 8-5 challenger. As a bonus, the league’s decade-long dynasty makes one final stand in the freezing cold.

Packers-Broncos and Bills-Pats are the two main-stage matches on Sunday’s schedule, but all four of those teams still have comfortable playoff holds regardless of outcome. They’re big games, for sure, but not quite “must-win” games. This week’s rankings are in search of the strongest urgency. There’s a lot of it to go around.

All times ET and all game odds via BetMGM.

Week 15 Sunday viewing guide

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GameTimeTVStreaming

Chargers at Chiefs

1 p.m.

CBS

Ravens at Bengals

1 p.m.

CBS

Colts at Seahawks

4:25 p.m.

CBS

Lions at Rams

4:25 p.m.

Fox

Vikings at Cowboys

8:20 p.m.

NBC

Peacock

In-market CBS and Fox games are free over the air. “Sunday Night Football” is a national broadcast, and NBC is also free over the air.

5. Minnesota Vikings (5-8) at Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1)

Minnesota is an afterthought in the NFC North basement (three games back of third place). The Vikings have yet to be officially eliminated, but even if they win out to finish 9-8, Austin Mock’s predictive model still puts their playoff probability at less than 1 percent.

“Must-win” feelings don’t come from distant tiebreakers and technicalities, but there is something to seeing how J.J. McCarthy seals off his debut season. While it’s been a deeply underwhelming run for the artist formerly known as “Nine,” improvements were shown in last weekend’s win (16-for-23 passing for 163 yards and three touchdowns against the Washington Commanders).

Dallas isn’t in an ideal spot at an even .500, but at least its sliver of hope can be seen without prescription lenses. The Cowboys definitely care about crashing the bracket, given their trade deadline double-buy and their recent hype-raising victories over the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs.

The playoff projection has them with only a 2 percent shot of making the postseason with a loss to the Vikings, but Dak Prescott and company’s wild-card chances are 54 percent if they go 4-0 in Weeks 15-18. They’ll also have a narrow angle toward the top of the NFC East if the Eagles keep bottoming out, though Philly’s Week 15 assignment is that melting dumpster we call the Las Vegas Raiders. If nothing else, “Sunday Night Football” gives us state-of-the-art receivers in Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.

4. Baltimore Ravens (6-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-9)

Like Vikings-Cowboys, this matchup pairs at-large disappointments with confusing outlooks. Unlike the SNF showcase, though, Bengals-Ravens is a legitimate tool for an under .500 team to earn a home playoff game. Someone has to win the AFC North, against the members’ best intentions.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are in pole position after beating the Ravens last Sunday, but Baltimore can jostle right back with a home W and a Steelers stumble to the Miami Dolphins (four straight wins, quiet as kept) on Monday night. This is all a non-starter if Lamar Jackson stays so unrecognizably limited. He’s been held back by knee, ankle and toe ailments throughout 2025.

It’s a true must-win for the Bengals, who are well behind the eight ball due to Joe Burrow’s toe injury and a tissue-paper defense. Cincinnati would need to win out, plus get some gratuitous misery from Pittsburgh and Baltimore, to sneak off with a division banner. To be fair, the Bengals recently won this matchup 32-14 on Thanksgiving, behind Ja’Marr Chase’s 110 receiving yards. Burrow at least needs to see the ball zip after Wednesday’s downtrodden and Midwest emo press availability.

Per TruMedia, this is the first time that Jackson and Burrow meet up with both sides sporting losing records. Must-win, but also, must reset and try again in 2026.

3. Indianapolis Colts (8-5) at Seattle Seahawks (10-3)

The Seahawks are bidding for both the NFC West lead and the NFC’s first-round bye. If they continue stacking wins, the conference’s Super Bowl path could get an emerald hue. Home-field advantage hits even stronger in seismographic Seattle. But if they lose pace with the Rams down in Los Angeles, they might wind up with a road game in the first round. That did not go well for Sam Darnold in 2024.

Now to the visiting sideline, where … wait, why does the Colts quarterback look so different? Did No. 17 age 17 years overnight? Squint just enough and … is that Philip Rivers?! Absolutely nothing signals “must-win” desperation like Indy calling the 44-year-old Rivers out of retirement and into practice reps. This is the glass within the glass to break in case of emergency. Daniel Jones tore his Achilles in Jacksonville last weekend, Anthony Richardson is on injured reserve and rookie backup Riley Leonard is battling a knee injury. This collapse is compounded by the Houston Texans’ ongoing heat check, which leaves Indianapolis at No. 3 in the division and No. 8 in the conference.

No matter who’s under center, a shocking upset would begin with Jonathan Taylor (the NFL’s rushing leader through 14 weeks) and the Colts defense (at least one takeaway in every game so far). If they can somehow pull this off, Shane Steichen’s group will be in the mix for both a wild-card spot and the AFC South. But the once-promising upstarts, now 1-4 in their last five tries, are warped further into the black hole with another blistered shortcoming.

2. Detroit Lions (8-5) at Los Angeles Rams (10-3)

Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff face the respective franchises that drafted them first overall. World-class receivers Puka Nacua and Davante Adams contrast with the Sonic-and-Knuckles backfield of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. The calculated Sean McVay scheming against the visceral Dan Campbell. Lions-Rams has platinum potential.

Sunday’s hosts need to win for NFC West and NFC conference purposes alike. Seattle wants that first-round bye to feed the “12th Man” and protect Darnold from disadvantage-turned-disaster. Los Angeles orbits a different set of incentives, which makes this such a cool race. The Rams are worse on the road (5-2) than the Seahawks (6-1) so far, and their preference for indoor games obviously ticks up when temperatures drop.

Just as significant, their offense is led by a 37-year-old QB, and his lead red-zone option turns 33 this month. The Rams will do whatever they can to shorten the gauntlet. According to the projection module, a Week 15 win would take their division title likelihood up to 64 percent, but a loss would lower it to 39 percent. That win-loss swing goes to 57/27 when weighing the No. 1 seed.

But the “must-win” energies are mainly from the maned. The Lions are well short of their 15-win dominance from last season, but they can still salvage a talented offense and tease potential mayhem as a wild card. Per The Athletic’s Colton Pouncy, Detroit has to go at least 3-1 in its remaining four games for a realistic playoff push. A win in Inglewood would boost Detroit’s simulated chances to 60 percent, while a loss would halve that to 30.

Campbell talked about the sport’s indiscriminate and fleeting nature after his 15-2 Lions took a premature postseason exit. What will be left to say if this year’s team misses the playoffs outright?

1. Los Angeles Chargers (9-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-7)

The Chiefs have already snapped their streak of nine consecutive AFC West titles, and they’re at elimination’s edge for their first playoff absence since 2014. Strange days. Some context — the last time this team missed the postseason, Aaron Donald was the Defensive Rookie of the Year and played for the St. Louis Rams.

Andy Reid’s crew needs to win out for a chance at flipping such discomfiting vibes. Patrick Mahomes is coming off a three-interception nightmare on “Sunday Night Football,” and he’s averaging three sacks taken per game across his last six outings. This Chiefs core certainly has the Super Bowl bonafides to survive an off year, but the current iteration is in code-red mode amid the heartbreak and heartburn. Unlikely salvation will have to come against a Chargers defense that starts the week No. 9 in scoring defense and No. 4 in third-down efficiency.

According to Mock’s model, L.A. would have a 95 percent playoff probability if it survives Kansas City. That number drops to 68 percent with a loss. Behind a depleted offensive line, Justin Herbert is under relentless pressure. Per Next Gen Stats, the Eagles subjected him to the sixth-highest pressure rate of the last decade. And still, the Chargers just spoiled a reigning conference champion Monday night. What’s one more on Sunday?

Updated Week 15 odds

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