The discrepancy is attributed to how the LFS counts working-age population compared to quarterly population data. While the LFS has maintained steady population growth figures, quarterly data shows sharp deceleration, largely due to changes in non-permanent residents.
Manufacturing job losses not driving unemployment
Despite widespread assumptions that trade uncertainties and manufacturing job losses are behind rising unemployment rates, Grantham’s analysis reveals a different story. Manufacturing employment has declined by 45,000 positions since January, but unemployment data by sector shows only a 9,000 increase.
“Only 20% of the decline in manufacturing employment appears to have been reflected in the unemployment rate,” the report states. “Some may have retired, temporarily left the labour force to wait out trade uncertainty, or have found work in other sectors.”
Instead, unemployment increases have been driven primarily by new entrants and people re-entering the workforce struggling to find positions, particularly students and individuals previously keeping house.
Regional analysis challenges trade impact narrative
Even in Ontario, where the unemployment rate for prime-aged workers sits 1% above the national average, the increase stems more from difficulties finding work for new job seekers rather than manufacturing layoffs.