Perhaps the biggest game of the NFL season thus far is nearly here. The leaders of the league’s best division, the NFC West, will meet for a rematch Thursday night when the Rams visit the Seahawks, five weeks after outlasting Seattle 21-19 in Los Angeles.
The Rams (11-3) and Seahawks (11-3) have the best odds to claim the NFC’s top seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, according to The Athletic’s playoff simulator. But a third division rival is lurking.
Despite sitting third in the NFC West, the San Francisco 49ers (10-4) have the third-best odds in the conference. If Seattle beats Los Angeles on Thursday night, the Niners would be assured the NFC’s top seed by winning their final three games, including Week 18 at home against the Seahawks.
With so much at stake, our beat writers for the Rams (Nate Atkins), Seahawks (Michael-Shawn Dugar) and 49ers (Vic Tafur) gathered to break down all angles of the race as we head into the home stretch.
Which player (or unit) in the division strikes the most fear in opposing teams?
Atkins: It’s the Rams’ offense right now. That doesn’t take away from what the Seahawks or 49ers have going, but the Rams are dictating terms on that side of the ball. In two consecutive weeks, they’ve gone over 40 points and 500 yards. They’re the top rushing team in almost every category since midseason, have a quarterback in Matthew Stafford leading the MVP conversation and boast the NFL’s leader in touchdown receptions in Davante Adams and the league’s No. 2 receiver in yards and catches in Puka Nacua.
Adams’ hamstring injury weakens the case, but the two-headed run game of Kyren Williams and Blake Corum and the success they’re having in three-tight-end sets gives them ways to play around it in the interim.
Dugar: Seattle’s defense is playing as well as any unit in the league. It ranks No. 1 in EPA per play and second in points per drive behind the Houston Texans. Mike Macdonald has playmakers at all three levels of the defense, and each week he puts those players in position to make splash plays. Seattle has 17 players with at least a half-sack and ranks among the top five in passes defended, tackles for loss and sacks. An offense must function at an elite level to deal with all that Macdonald brings to the table.
Tafur: Here’s a hint: He’s about to become the first player in NFL history to have 1,000 yards rushing and 1,000 receiving in the same season twice. At the beginning of the season, people were worried about Christian McCaffrey coming back from a knee injury, but he has been the 49ers’ only star player other than Trent Williams to hold up all year. His paltry 3.6 yards per carry might be more about the offensive line than himself, but defenses still haven’t shown any signs of stopping him when he comes out of the backfield to catch a swing pass — and he can still bounce off tackle attempts like they are dummies.
What’s one nagging concern that could cost the team you cover?
Atkins: The Adams injury is brand new, so the one concern that has nagged for some time is the secondary. The Rams rank in the top 10 as a defense in most categories, but the outside cornerbacks have been challenged by top-flight receivers as of late, with the Detroit Lions’ Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams both topping 130 yards on Sunday.
Los Angeles has the lowest-paid defense in the NFL, and a key to it was supposed to be Quentin Lake rotating from nickel cornerback to strong safety to free safety to disguise coverages. With him on injured reserve, and with former top cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon not responding well after his own surgery, Emmanuel Forbes Jr. and Cobie Durant have been left on too many islands for their physical disadvantages.
Dugar: The Seahawks don’t have a run game they can rely on. The offense is explosive and efficient, but the passing game is doing the heavy lifting. Seattle is basically a boxer who threatens opponents with only haymakers and knockouts. This team doesn’t jab. Against weaker foes, that’s fine. Against fighters in the same weight class? Not as much. Thursday will be a big test for Seattle’s offense.
Tafur: The Tennessee Titans hit 24 points for only the third time this season against San Francisco on Sunday, and the biggest reason was the 49ers’ lack of a pass rush since Nick Bosa went down with a knee injury in Week 3. They have 11 sacks in the past 11 games. The run defense has also not been that hot since the loss of Fred Warner in Week 6, but the 49ers hope to plug in recent addition Eric Kendricks soon.
As far as the pass rush, the 49ers are hoping 2019 first-round pick Clelin Ferrell continues his surprising comeback story, as he has four sacks since signing six weeks ago. They have won four consecutive games thanks in part to a lackluster list of opposing QBs, and they get 44-year-old statue Philip Rivers and the Colts on Sunday.
How trustworthy is the team you cover to win on the road in the playoffs?
Atkins: The Rams have seen their season end with road games in the divisional round in two consecutive years, but both were thrilling finishes against elite teams in the Lions and Philadelphia Eagles. They are better equipped for those settings this season, with a new-look rush defense that almost never allows an explosive run, and a running game featuring Williams and Corum that can negate the crowd and weather effects on the road.
Williams does have a fumbling history, which cost this team in the snow in Philadelphia last season, but he hasn’t lost the ball in his past nine games. So long as the Rams avoid that, they should be a tough out at home or on the road.
Dugar: Seattle is 6-1 on the road this season and 13-2 under Macdonald. Going on the road in the playoffs isn’t ideal, but if Seattle had to go that route, the team would understandably feel confident it can make a run. That said, the two losses are instructive: Week 4 against the Lions last year and Week 11 against the Rams this season. The Seahawks travel well. Their 13 road wins lead the league over the past two seasons. But can they beat a good NFC team on the road? That box has yet to be checked, though that doesn’t mean it can’t be done.
Tafur: The 49ers are a confident, veteran bunch, and they are 6-2 on the road, including wins at both Seattle and Los Angeles. The Week 5 win over the Rams was a shocker, as no one was taking Mac Jones too seriously at that point after Brock Purdy went down. Jones wound up going 5-3 as a starter and helped the 49ers believe they could still contend despite the absences of Bosa, Warner, Purdy and George Kittle, as well as Brandon Aiyuk.
While coach Kyle Shanahan has long been a great play caller, the addition of defensive coordinator Robert Saleh has been huge as the 49ers’ undermanned defense now feels it can scheme up a chance to win against anyone, anywhere. The Niners also might have the best traveling fan base in the NFL, which can’t hurt.
Who will win the Rams-Seahawks rematch?
Atkins: It was a classic the first time the two teams played this season, and I expect this one to come down to the wire. The Rams won that game by intercepting Sam Darnold four times, which I don’t expect to repeat in Seattle with Lake out. I figured the Rams would also have a much better offensive showing after Adams had one catch for 1 yard in that game, but he might be out with a hamstring injury.
The Rams are just running the ball so well with a fresh Williams and Corum and their use of 13 personnel, and I think they’re due for a big Jared Verse performance, which could come against a backup left tackle if Charles Cross is out. Like the past two times they’ve faced Darnold, the key to victory is in making him play under pressure, and I think they’ll do that enough to pull out a close win.
Dugar: Seattle’s defense is playing even better than it was in Week 11. The offense, however, isn’t as hot. Positives for Seattle: Rashid Shaheed has emerged as a No. 2 option — nine catches for 141 yards the past two games — and the Rams’ No. 2 option might not be available. A potentially massive negative: Cross’ hamstring injury.
These two teams are evenly matched. It might come down to the offense that best plays balanced ball and the quarterback that delivers in the big moments. Sean McVay and Stafford have earned the benefit of the doubt in both categories.
Tafur: I love Seattle’s defense, and I think the Seahawks were clearly looking past the Colts last week to this game, thus the field goal battle with ol’ man Rivers. The Rams are the better team, but … give me the Seahawks due to the home-field edge and the Rams possibly being without Adams. The Seahawks, meanwhile, are also finally getting Shaheed involved — what a great trade that was — and Darnold hits him deep to help turn the tide.
Who will claim the NFC’s top seed?
Atkins: The winner of Thursday’s game is likely taking the top seed, as The Athletic’s playoff simulator lays out. It’s a super close call, but I’m going to say the Rams take that game and close out the Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals to take the top seed.
Dugar: The Rams. They’re better than the 49ers and arguably more complete than the Seahawks because of what Williams and Corum can do on the ground (Seattle has the advantage on special teams, for what that’s worth). Stafford and McVay have proven they can function against Macdonald’s defense (fun fact: Stafford has never lost to Seattle as a Ram). Los Angeles is favored on the road Thursday night, though Seattle will undoubtedly make it a dogfight. The winner of the game will probably take the NFC and, right now, Los Angeles has earned the benefit of the doubt.
Tafur: I keep selling the 49ers short, but here they are at 10-4 with a chance at the No. 1 seed in the NFC if the Seahawks beat the Rams on Thursday night. While the offense has carried the defense the past month, it’s tough not to see the defense costing them a game — or two — down the stretch. The well-rounded Rams and Stafford, who was closer to becoming a Las Vegas Raider in the offseason than most people realize, is the obvious call, but give me the ornery Seahawks defense — as well as Darnold making some tough throws and crossing out the narrative that the Minnesota Vikings’ collapse last season was all his fault.