Pity the studio distribution executive who has to explain why the Christmas-New Year’s corridor is such a challenge to predict, depending on when a movie opens in relation to the actual holiday.
This year, 20th Century Studios and Disney open James Cameron‘s Avatar: Fire and Ash on the Friday before Christmas. The sci-epic is tracking to open domestically in the $95 million to $105 million range, versus the $134 million earned by 2023 Christmas entry Avatar: The Way of the Water.
One key fact: Way of Water had nine full days of play before the actual holiday fell, meaning it had more time to compete with consumers rushing to complete holiday preparations. Fire & Ash has six days.
The first Avatar was grilled mercilessly in 2009 when opening to $77 million, but the angst soon ended as the film picked up momentum on it way to becoming the top-grossing film of all time at the worldwide box office with an astounding $2.9 billion, not adjusted for inflation. It still holds that honor.
Fire and Ash is opening in virtually every corner of the globe and is projecting a global debut in the $330 million to $340 million range (that compares to $440 million for the sequel). That includes China, where Cameron is a cult hero, though the Chinese box office is no longer huge for American movies. One recent major exemption is Disney’s Zootopia 2, which has now grossed north of $500 million in the territory to become the No. 2 film of all time behind Avengers: Endgame, unadjusted. Fire and Ash could certainly share in that same good will; the first Avatar ultimately grossed $276 million, followed by $246 million for Way of Water.
Cameron is a huge proponent of 3D systems, as well as a devotee of Imax cameras and technology. He’s gone around the world plugging his new film, with plans for a fourth and fifth installments. ( His definition of “plan” may be up for debate.)
Avatar: Fire & Ash isn’t the only movie taking a seat at this year’s holiday feast. Also opening nationwide on the 19th are Paramount’s family pic The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants and Lionsgate’s R-rated thriller The Housemaid, starring Amanda Seyfried and Sydney Sweeney. The film, a throwback to 1990s, will be a key test for Sweeney following her failed Oscar hopeful, Christy, and is hoping for a launch in the $20 million to $25 million range. The Angel Studios animated feature David is also tracking $20 million to $25 range.
Another round of films open Christmas Day, including Sony’s Anaconda reboot (no one is quite sure where it is going to land.) On the prestige side of the aisle, Oscar hopefuls Marty Supreme, starring Timothée Chalamet, and Hugh Jackman-Kate Hudson starrer Sing Song Blue also open nationwide.