The big brokerages have weighed in with their 2026 market forecasts, and – are you sitting down? – they’re calling for stocks to rise again.

Morgan Stanley sees the S&P 500 gaining as much as 14 per cent from current levels. Deutsche Bank is even more bullish, calling for the U.S. benchmark to rise about 17 per cent. Even Bank of America, the bear of the bunch, still predicts a gain of 4 per cent.

But the specifics don’t actually matter. By this time next year nobody will remember what each broker said, just like nobody remembers what they said about 2025. Or 2024.

This year was easy for investors. Don’t expect a replay in 2026

Well, I want you to remember what I’m about to say. In fact, I’m so confident in my five predictions that I encourage you to clip out this column and post it on your fridge for future reference. If you’re reading this column online, or you don’t have a fridge, take a screenshot and make it the background of your phone. That pic of your grandkids is years out of date, anyway.

Here are my bold predictions for 2026. And, remember, you heard it here first.

The market will be ‘volatile’

This seems like a safe bet. After all, there has never been a period in history when financial commentators described the stock market as “highly predictable,” “tranquil” or “serene.” It’s always “volatile.” Such is the nature of markets, especially when computer algorithms account for an estimated two-thirds of trading. So strap yourselves in, folks, because 2026 is going to be a real roller coaster. Mark my words.

Consumers will be ‘nervous’

If you pay attention to the financial media, you’ll know that consumers everywhere are always “nervous.” They’re nervous about their jobs, their household debt, the economy, the stock market, inflation, retirement, you name it. It doesn’t actually matter what condition the economy is in – you never hear about consumers being “relaxed” or “not having a care in the world.” Why would 2026 be any different? It won’t.

Many stocks will raise their dividends

Despite pervasive and never-ending volatility and nervousness, lots of companies will continue to increase their dividends.

Let’s start with the banks. Coming off a fourth quarter in which BMO BMO-T, CIBC CM-T, TD TD-T and Royal RY-T increased their payouts, it’s clear the banks are in what I like to call “dividend boost mode.” Actually, the banks are almost always in dividend boost mode, except during extreme events such as the pandemic or the financial crisis. Barring something similar in 2026, I predict that each of the above banks will raise its dividend at least once.

I’ll go even further and predict that many utilities and pipelines – including Fortis FTS-T, Emera EMA-T, Enbridge ENB-T and TC Energy TRP-T – will also raise their dividends, as they’ve done for years. Put Brookfield Infrastructure BIPC-T on the list, too. And Restaurant Brands International QSR-T. Disclosure: I own all of the companies mentioned so far, both personally and in my model Yield Hog Dividend Growth Portfolio.

You’ll still be paying for everything with dollars

There are tens of thousands of cryptocurrencies – millions, by some estimates. What do all of these cybertokens have in common? Nobody uses them to buy anything. Their principal purpose is to enrich the issuers and give people a way to speculate. Countries such El Salvador tried to make bitcoin a legal currency, but it flopped. Maybe it’s because we already have currencies and payment systems that work just fine and that people actually want to use. That’s why I can confidently state that bitcoin will not replace dollars next year, the year after that – or ever, no matter what bitcoin bulls say. Related prediction: Crypto “investors” will lose billions of dollars to hackers and scammers, just as they did in 2025 – another reason most people have zero interest in using bitcoin to buy their groceries.

Stocks you don’t own will outperform the ones you do

It’s a truism of investing: No matter how well your stocks perform, there will always be some that do better. It’s FOMO and hindsight bias rolled into one. For example, feeling good about Shopify’s SHOP-T 52-per-cent gain this year? You should have bought Celestica CLS-T instead; it’s up 195 per cent. Oddly, investors never think to compare their investments with securities that did worse. For example, if you’re upset that Telus T-T is down 10 per cent this year, it’s a good time to remind yourself that you didn’t buy Donald Trump’s meme coin. Feel better now? You’re welcome.

E-mail your questions to jheinzl@globeandmail.com. I’m not able to respond personally to e-mails but I choose certain questions to answer in my column.