NFL Week 16 overreactions and reality checks: Quinn Ewers era already over in Miami?

There has been no shortage of drama in Week 16. Before we even got to Sunday’s action, we had a trio of games that reshaped the playoff picture, particularly in the NFC. There were comebacks by both the Seattle Seahawks and Chicago Bears, who sit as the top two seeds in the conference, while the Philadelphia Eagles locked in their place as the NFC East champions for the second year in a row. 

As expected, given the time of year, the latest playoff seeding scenarios are at the top of mind throughout the NFL. However, there are also plenty of storylines developing across the league that don’t exactly link back to the postseason picture. For instance, the Kansas City Chiefs are finding out that life without Patrick Mahomes is awfully difficult, while the Miami Dolphins are potentially ushering in a new era under center. 

As we do every week, we’re going to dive into some of the more noteworthy storylines to sprout up over Week 16 and determine which ones we should take seriously and which others are mere overreactions. 

Quinn Ewers era already over in Miami

Overreaction vs. reality: Reality

One of the bigger non-playoff storylines coming into Week 16 was the Miami Dolphins benching of Tua Tagovailoa and starting rookie Quinn Ewers at quarterback. While this change under center had more to do with Tagovailoa, it was an opportunity for Ewers to state his case as the possible heir apparent for the organization as it looks toward 2026. While it’s only one start that’s under his belt, it wasn’t exactly a confidence-instilling performance by the Texas product. 

Ewers finished his first career start, completing 20 of his 30 passes for 260 yards and two interceptions in what was a blowout loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. The second half was where Ewers truly started to falter, completing 55.6% of his throws and two interceptions to result in a 43.8 passer rating. 

Ewers will likely get the start over Miami’s final two games to wrap up the season, but the initial optimism of him rising atop the depth chart has certainly hit a sobering wall. Through the first test, Ewers didn’t do enough to force Miami’s hand to forgo looking at other options this coming offseason.

Jaxson Dart no longer Giants clear-cut QB of the future

Overreaction vs. reality: Overreaction

It was a bizarre day for the New York Giants offense as it fell to the Minnesota Vikings, 16-13. While that final score illustrates a close game, the offense didn’t provide much, as the only touchdown on the afternoon for New York came on the defensive side. Overall, the offense registered just 141 yards of offense on 2.9 yards per play. 

Specifically, it was a quiet afternoon for rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart, who only attempted five passes in the first half and completed one of them for 2 yards. For the game, Dart was 7 of 13 for 33 yards and an interception, which gave him a 27.4 passer rating. 

It was truly an awful performance all the way around. While that may shake the confidence in some regarding Dart’s standing as the organization’s centerpiece under center, it shouldn’t. There is so much going wrong with the Giants, ranging from an ill-equipped offensive line, injured pass catchers, and an interim head coach, that it’s hard to truly evaluate him. 

Dart has flashed enough this season that any serious head coaching candidate this cycle can look at him and see someone whom they can mold into a true franchise quarterback. 

Chiefs loss shows how much Patrick Mahomes was carrying team 

Overreaction vs. reality: Reality

The Kansas City Chiefs had another quarterback go down on Sunday, with Gardner Minshew leaving due to a knee injury, so the organization was truly playing with both arms tied behind its back offensively. That said, when watching them fall to the Tennessee Titans, it exposed how much Patrick Mahomes was propping this roster up. With the face of the franchise out for the year due to a torn ACL, we saw the warts that this roster has. The offensive line struggles in pass protection, there are no true receiving threats (albeit with Rashee Rice injured for this game), and the defense just saw one of the worst offenses in the league move the ball at will for most of the afternoon. These final two weeks should be a wake-up call to the front office that, as generational as Mahomes is, he needs at least some talent at his disposal to get them back to the mountaintop.

Panthers are going to run away with the NFC South

Overreaction vs. reality: Overreaction

Carolina pulled off a massive win in Week 16 over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The victory vaulted them to first place in the NFC South as they sit as the No. 7 seed in the conference with just two weeks left in the regular season. 

As much as this win gives them an inside lane to eventually being named NFC South champions, it’s a step too far to say that they are not going to run away with the division. Yes, if Carolina wins out, they’ll clinch the division, but the road ahead is hardly easy. Next week, they’ll host the Seattle Seahawks, who are currently the No. 1 seed in the NFC, before heading on the road to Raymond James Stadium, where they’ll again play the Buccaneers. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay’s Week 17 opponent is far easier in the Miami Dolphins, albeit with that game being on the road. This division is still very much up in the air. 

Bills run defense will be their undoing in the playoffs 

Overreaction vs. reality: Reality

It didn’t burn them on Sunday as they were able to escape Cleveland with a win over the Browns, but the Buffalo Bills run defense is a massive problem that could prove to be their undoing when they get into the playoffs. In a game where Quinshon Judkins left early due to an injury, Cleveland still was able to rush for 160 yards on 5.2 yards per carry, which helped firmly put the Bills on upset alert. This isn’t a one-week issue for the unit either, as it has been among the worst run defenses in the league all season. 

Coming into Week 16, Buffalo was giving up the third most rushing yards per game (143.1) on a 5.4 yards per carry allowed average that was the second highest in the league. With various playoff teams featuring a strong rushing attack, this could be their kryptonite.

Detroit’s Super Bowl window has closed

Overreaction vs. reality: Overreaction

The Lions likely just saw their hopes of sneaking into the playoffs go up in smoke as they came up just short of mounting a comeback against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Detroit is now 8-7 and the No. 8 seed in the conference, but trails the No. 7 seed Packers (9-5-1) by a large margin when factoring in Green Bay owning the head-to-head tiebreaker. 

With their postseason dreams likely dashed, the next question is whether or not the Lions have missed their Super Bowl window. The division is getting tougher by the year, so it’ll be a harder road for Dan Campbell’s club, but there is too much talent to completely close the door on the Lions getting to the big game in the years to come. If they get healthy and make some additions this offseason, they could quickly return as one of the elite teams in the conference. 

Jaguars are the team to beat in the AFC

Overreaction vs. reality: Reality

Jacksonville has its marquee win of the season, rolling into Denver and taking down the Broncos, who are currently sitting as the No. 1 seed. This was a much-needed victory for the Jags as it begins to validate what has been a stellar run over this six-game winning streak. 

Prior to Sunday, Jacksonville had largely beaten up bad competition, which opened the door for those looking at the organization to doubt whether or not the Jaguars are for real. Well, it’s hard to argue that now, as they took down arguably the best team in the conference in their building in rather convincing fashion. Coming out of Week 16, you can make a strong case that these Jaguars are the cream of the crop in the AFC.