The Los Angeles Rams have played a brutal schedule.

Superstar QB Matthew Stafford has excelled anyway, and that makes him an excellent MVP case.

It can be summed up in one stat, shared Tuesday morning on X by ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky:

Stafford has thrown 20 touchdowns against teams that will finish this season with at least 11 wins. That’s an all-time NFL record.

Second place this season, for context, is Baker Mayfield with 13 such passing TDs.

Patriots QB Drake Maye has thrown none.

TD passes against 11+ win teams in 2025

1. Matthew Stafford – 20 (most in NFL history)
2. Baker Mayfield – 13

51 players with at least 1

52+ with 0. Maye is in this group. (Not a knock on him just context of competition)

— Dan Orlovsky (@danorlovsky7) December 30, 2025

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A team’s wins don’t necessarily mean their defense is great, but it does show that the Rams have been in a lot of games against talented rosters that are going to put up a fight back.

And in those settings, Stafford has delivered. 

His Monday night showing against the Falcons, with a few bad interceptions, won’t earn him positive favor.

But if voters take the whole season in totality, it’s hard to land anywhere other than Stafford for MVP.

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