For sports fans who enjoy debates, there is perhaps no better topic than the Hall of Fame. It’s a subjective honor, in hockey’s case decided by an 18-member committee consisting of executives, journalists and former players.

For election, players are eligible three years after their retirement from any hockey league, and they must receive at least 14 of 18 committee votes. This summer, the Hockey Hall of Fame in Toronto announced that it had elected eight new members to be inducted in November: Jennifer Botterill, Zdeno Chara, Brianna Decker, Duncan Keith, Alexander Mogilny and Joe Thornton as players and Jack Parker and Danièle Sauvageau as builders.

Last year, I went through current NHL players and evaluated their Hall of Fame cases alongside the great Eric Duhatschek, a former committee member who was a writer for The Athletic before retiring in November. We sorted the players into tiers based on their likelihood of induction, focusing solely on those who had played a minimum of five years, had appeared in a 2023-24 game and were under contract for 2024-25.

With another regular season, an international tournament and a playoff cycle all complete, it’s time to re-evaluate our rankings. First, some parameters:

• Once again, I’m limiting this project to players who have logged at least five seasons. Macklin Celebrini and Connor Bedard could be in a similar article in a few years, but it’s simply too early to evaluate their careers through this lens.

• This focuses solely on players who are under contract for next season. Jonathan Toews is included since he signed with Winnipeg, as is Golden Knights defenseman Alex Pietrangelo, who is under contract for next season but announced in June that he is unlikely to play again due to injury. Joe Pavelski is not, however, since he retired after 2023-24 and is no longer under contract. Neither is Nicklas Backstrom (though we will get to him later).

• I’ve incorporated a couple new tiers to try to make the project more complete.

• Non-newcomers in each tier are sorted by position (forwards, then defensemen, then goalies) with the player who has the most points first. Goalies are ordered by wins.

• Players whose tiers have changed from last year are italicized and listed at the bottom of their category.

Now, here’s how the tiers currently shake out, followed by analysis of each newcomer. For analysis of everyone else, check out last year’s installment.

Tier 1: They could retire today and make it

Sidney Crosby
Alex Ovechkin
Evgeni Malkin
Patrick Kane
Anze Kopitar
Steven Stamkos
Connor McDavid
Nathan MacKinnon
Nikita Kucherov
Erik Karlsson
Victor Hedman
Drew Doughty
Sergei Bobrovsky
Jonathan Quick
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Leon Draisaitl

Tier 1.5 (new): Almost there — if not already a lock 

Brad Marchand
Jonathan Toews
Brent Burns
Aleksander Barkov
Connor Hellebuyck

Tier 2: Right on the cusp

Auston Matthews
Kris Letang
Roman Josi
Alex Pietrangelo
Cale Makar

Tier 2.5 (new): Crossing the blue line

John Tavares
Corey Perry

Tier 3: Outside shots

Claude Giroux
Jamie Benn
Ryan O’Reilly
John Carlson

Tier 4: On track

Artemi Panarin
David Pastrňák
Mikko Rantanen
Matthew Tkachuk
Quinn Hughes

Tier 5: Check back in a few years

Mitch Marner
Brayden Point
Sebastian Aho
Jack Eichel
Jack Hughes
Adam Fox
Charlie McAvoy
Miro Heiskanen
Igor Shesterkin
Kirill Kaprizov
Evan Bouchard

Tier 1: They could retire today and make it

Leon Draisaitl (2024-25 ranking: Tier 2) 

Marc-André Fleury graduated from this tier by retiring, and Draisaitl is the only new entry. At this point, he’s done enough to join teammate Connor McDavid in this category of locks. Draisaitl was excellent in 2024-25 for Edmonton, narrowly missing out on his second-career Hart Trophy; instead he merely finished second and led the league in goals.

To make the Hall as a skater with fewer than 800 games played, a player has to be at the level of past inductees Peter Forsberg, Eric Lindros and Pavel Bure. Well, Draisaitl has already scored more goals than Forsberg and Lindros, and he has at least 76 points more than all of them.

His resume at this point is undeniable, especially after a 2025 playoffs in which he scored four overtime goals and led all players in points with 33. The Oilers reached their second-consecutive Stanley Cup Final but once again fell to Florida. Still only 29, he’ll continue to make himself more of a sure thing over the coming years.

He’s on pace to be not just a Hall of Famer but also one who makes it on the first ballot.

Auston Matthews — the league’s leading goal-scorer since his debut in 2016 — falls in the same conversation as Draisaitl: skaters under 30 whose peaks have been so high that they might already have amassed Hall of Fame credentials. But Matthews’ resume is a little less convincing than Draisaitl’s, mainly because he has seen less postseason success. Draisaitl has 52 goals and 141 points in 96 playoff games — a 44-goal, 120-point pace for an 82-game season — whereas Matthews has 26 goals and 59 points in 68 games: a 31-goal, 71-point pace.

Of the two players under 30 in last year’s Tier 2 (“Right on the cusp”), Draisaitl has separated himself.

Tier 1.5: Almost there — if not already a lock

Brad Marchand (2024-25: Tier 2) 

Perhaps no one raised their stock more this season than the Panthers winger, almost entirely because of what happened in the playoffs. His regular season was respectable for a 37-year-old but not legendary: He finished with 51 points, as well as a gold medal with Canada at the 4 Nations Face-Off, adding to the World Cup of Hockey and world championship golds already in his trophy case. Notably, the Bruins traded him to Florida at the trade deadline, putting Marchand in position for a legendary postseason run.

Marchand was one of the Panthers’ best players as they won their second-consecutive Stanley Cup. He finished with 10 goals in 23 games, two of which came in overtime. His first was in Game 3 against Toronto when his team was in danger of going down 3-0 in the series, and his second came against Edmonton in the Cup Final.

Marchand is now up to 66 career playoff goals, tied with Denis Savard and Joe Nieuwendyk for 23rd all-time. Savard and Nieuwendyk are already in the Hall of Fame, and only four of the players ahead of them are neither already in nor locks when they become eligible: Claude Lemieux, Joe Pavelski, Patrick Marleau and Esa Tikkanen.

At the start of free agency, Marchand signed a six-year extension in Florida with a $5.25 million annual cap hit. He should fly past 1,000 next season, sitting at 980 now, and with 424 career goals, he has a shot at breaking into the 500 club in the coming years too. Except for Patrik Eliáš, every NHL player in history with at least 1,000 points and two Stanley Cups is either in the Hall of Fame or not yet eligible for induction. Marchand also finished top-10 in Hart Trophy voting four times, so he was widely considered an elite player at his peak.

The Panthers are set to remain contenders in the coming years, so Marchand should have plenty of time to add to his postseason statistics — and maybe even add another Stanley Cup. If he’s not a lock yet, he’s in position to be very soon.

Jonathan Toews (2024-25: not ranked)

Toews didn’t make last year’s tiers because he had not played in 2023-24 and was not under contract for 2024-25. Now that the center has signed with the Jets, I’m counting him as eligible. His box-score stats don’t scream “Hall of Famer” on the surface, but he captained three Blackhawks teams to Stanley Cups, earned a Conn Smythe and also won a Selke. He’s part of the Triple Gold Club — meaning he’s won a Stanley Cup, Olympic Gold (two in his case) and a world championship — and feels bound for induction. He has a chance to add to his case with Winnipeg.

One potential factor for when the committee considers Toews’ candidacy: He was the captain of Chicago in 2010, the year it won its first Stanley Cup of the 21st century but also the year former Blackhawks video coach Brad Aldrich allegedly sexually assaulted then-player Kyle Beach. The Athletic’s Mark Lazerus wrote in 2022 about how the scandal impacted Toews’ legacy. His teammate from that era, Keith, will be enshrined in the Hall in November.

Aleksander Barkov (2024-25: Tier 4)

Only six players have won the Selke Trophy three or more times: Patrice Bergeron, Bob Gainey, Guy Carbonneau, Pavel Datsyuk, Jere Lehtinen and now Barkov. Of the rest, four are either in the Hall of Fame or will be when they are eligible (Bergeron). Lehtinen, who played 875 games but was not the level of offensive threat as Barkov, is the only one on the outside looking in.

Barkov has now captained two teams to Stanley Cup wins, plus another to a Final appearance. Between that and his hardware (three Selkes, a King Clancy and a Lady Byng), it’s hard to envision him not getting in, especially with how the Panthers are set up to continue being a force. He’s still only 29 and has scored at better than a point-per-game pace each of the past five seasons. If he’s not a lock yet, he’s very, very close.

Brent Burns (2024-25: Tier 2)

Last year we had Burns in “Right on the cusp,” but this feels fair. He’s part of the reason I added this tier. With a Norris Trophy, three end-of-season All-Star teams, nearly 1,500 NHL games played and several international medals to his name, the defenseman, who signed with the Avalanche this offseason, probably has already done enough to warrant induction. It’s just not enough of a sure thing to move him into the top tier.

Connor Hellebuyck (2024-25: Tier 4)

Hellebuyck’s past season is difficult to evaluate. He was brilliant in the regular season, becoming the first goaltender to win the Hart Trophy since Carey Price in 2015, then had a rocky playoffs for the Jets. He’s posted a sub-.900 save percentage in each the past three postseasons, including sub-.870 in the past two. That’s not all his fault, but it has nevertheless been a tough look for one of the game’s best at his position.

Even with some playoff struggles, Hellebuyck’s accolades can’t be overlooked. He has three Vezina Trophies, and every other goalie with that many is already in except for Michel Larocque. The criteria for the Vezina was different in the 1970s when Larocque won: It went to the goalies on the team that allowed the fewest goals, so he was a joint winner all four times despite never being the starter. So essentially there’s no precedent for a goalie with Hellebuyck’s accomplishments missing the Hall.

Tier 2: Right on the cusp

Cale Makar (2024-25: Tier 4)

The Avalanche defenseman is the only new inclusion in this tier. Bumping him up might feel a bit dramatic, considering he’s only played 395 games. But by winning a second Norris Trophy and scoring 30 goals this past season — the first blueliner to do so since 2008-09 — he’s continued to build an impossible-to-ignore resume. He now has a Stanley Cup, a Conn Smythe, two Norrises, a Calder and has made five end-of-season All-Star teams. He picked up an international gold medal, too, by helping Canada to a 4 Nations Face-Off win, assisting on McDavid’s overtime goal in the gold medal game for good measure.

Even if Makar had average showings the next three seasons (hard to fathom because he’s still in his prime) and decided to retire after (hard to fathom because he’s only 26), he’d still be Hall of Fame worthy. He’s a rare player who appears bound for heights rarely seen by a defenseman.

Tier 2.5: Crossing the blue line (New tier)

John Tavares (2024-25: Tier 3)

Tavares, who turns 35 in September, put together a 38-goal season for the Maple Leafs in 2024-25, tied for the second most in his career. Suddenly the center is only six goals shy of 500, and he inked a new four-year extension in Toronto. He’ll reach 600 goals if he averages 26.5 goals per year over that contract, which feels feasible given how last season went. Every player with 600 goals is either in the Hall of Fame or a lock to make it when they become eligible.

Tavares has been durable throughout his career, which if continued will allow him to accumulate statistics to further bolster his resume before retirement. His peak is notable, too. He’s twice finished top-three in Hart Trophy voting, and over a seven-season span from 2012-13 to 2018-19 his 235 goals were second to only Ovechkin. He also had 507 points in that stretch, ranking fifth. He has not yet captured a Stanley Cup, but he did win an Olympic gold in 2014.

Corey Perry (2024-25: Tier 3)

Perry is one of the trickier players to evaluate in this exercise. He has a Hart Trophy (2010-11) but has only appeared on ballots one other season. Now 40, he has scored 448 goals and seems likely to finish his career shy of 500. He needs 65 points to reach 1,000, but he hasn’t scored more than 30 in the past three seasons.

Yet Perry keeps hanging around and contributing to strong teams. In his quest for a second Stanley Cup, after winning in 2007 with Anaheim, he has been a runner-up in five of the past six seasons with four different teams. Most recently, he scored 10 playoff goals for Edmonton, helping the Oilers reach a second-consecutive Stanley Cup Final. With a Stanley Cup, Olympic gold and world championship gold, Perry is also a member of the Triple Gold Club, which the committee will surely value.

Perry signed with the Kings this summer and is entering his 21st season. The committee someday will have to decide if his Hart is enough to validate his peak and if his accumulated career achievements are enough to overcome strong but not elite counting statistics. At this point he feels like at least a coin flip to make the Hall.

Tier 3: Outside shots

There’s no one new in this tier, so I’ll take a moment to address one of the most frequent complaints from last year’s comment section: the omission of Backstrom, the longtime Capitals center who is now ineligible since he signed in Sweden.

If I needed to put Backstrom in a tier, it would be this one. But it’s frankly too hard to see a world in which he gets in. That should not take away from his greatness. He won a Stanley Cup in 2018, played a part in so many Ovechkin goals and won a world championship gold and Olympic silver. Still, he never won an individual trophy, only had 80 points three times and only appeared on Hart ballots twice.

He’s a great player who should always get a hero’s welcome in Washington, but he’s not quite at Hall-of-Fame level.

Tier 4: On track

Matthew Tkachuk (2024-25: Tier 5)

As shown by Bobrovsky, Marchand and Barkov, winning Stanley Cups helps with this exercise. Tkachuk now has two rings, along with 69 points in 67 playoff games over the past three seasons. Pair that with two 100-point seasons and two end-of-season All-Star teams, and the 27-year-old is on track to reach the Hall. Tkachuk’s playoff achievements are the trump card over Marner, whom I also considered bumping into this tier. Eichel also has a case to move up, but he probably needs another season like 2024-25 before I move him into that range. Maybe next summer.

Quinn Hughes (2024-25: Tier 5)

Hughes, however, has done enough to join this grouping after another season as a Norris finalist. If the Canucks defenseman keeps playing at the level he’s shown the past two seasons, he will eventually be elected.

Tier 5: Check back in a few years

Kirill Kaprizov (2024-25: Not ranked)

Last year’s parameters dictated that a player needed to play five years before he was considered. Everything else felt too soon. Kaprizov has now played five seasons, and he’s established himself as one of the game’s most electrifying talents. He might’ve won the Hart Trophy this season had he not gotten hurt.

Kaprizov did not come over to the U.S. until he was 23, so his counting stats are behind those of other players his age. But if his peak continues, he’ll certainly be a potential Hall of Famer.

Evan Bouchard (2024-25: Not ranked)

Bouchard is one of the more polarizing players in hockey. He’s a brilliant offensive player, even when not on the ice with McDavid and Draisaitl, but is prone to defensive lapses. Still only 25, his hopes could depend on if Edmonton gets over the hump and wins the Stanley Cup in the coming years.

Other questions to consider: If Florida continues its dominance and wins multiple more Cups, could Sam Reinhart or even a defenseman such as Gustav Forsling push their way into the Hall of Fame picture? And with best-on-best Olympics returning, which players — Panthers or not — will seize the opportunity to improve their cases?

(Illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic; Photos: Andy Devlin/NHLI, Claus Andersen, Steph Chambers, Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)