As sports betting coverage and information becomes ubiquitous in the Fantasy Football world, it is interesting to compare my projections to where the season-long prop market currently it. One thing you will notice right away is that the props are universally lower. That is because I generally project for 17 games then adjust for injury risk in my rankings, while injury risk and the potential of getting benched in baked into the prop market.
Every running back that I have a projection and a prop for has a lower yardage prop than my projection. There are exceptions to this rule when it comes to rushing touchdowns. Both James Cook and Breece Hall project for fewer rushing touchdowns than their rushing TD prop. Both are projected to be in running back committees, and both have rushing quarterbacks who will steal rushing touchdowns. Cook’s number, at 9.5, is a much more attractive Under than Hall’s 5.5, but I am under both numbers in my projections.
Below you will find six running backs who I projected for at least 300 more rushing yards than their season-long prop on FanDuel. There are also four running backs projected to score at least four more touchdowns than their prop. Let’s start with the three running backs who fit in both categories:
Rushing Projection: 1,509
Rushing Prop: 1,175.5
Rush TD Projection: 12.5
Rush TD Prop: 9.5
Looking at last year’s numbers, these props are hard to understand. Taylor ran for 1,431 yards and 11 touchdowns in just 14 games in 2024. Of course, injuries are the primary way that players miss props, and Taylor has missed 16 games in the last three seasons combined. You just have to decide whether you think Taylor, at 26 years old, is a bigger injury risk than other running backs. I don’t, and as you’ll see below, there is room for Taylor to miss another three games this year and still hit the Over on both props.
Games needed to hit both Overs at my per game projection: 13.5 games
Rushing Projection: 1.362
Rushing Prop: 1000.5
Rush TD Projection: 14.2
Rush TD Prop: 10.5
If you have read anything I have written this offseason, you won’t be surprised I am higher on Williams than consensus. If I am wrong, it will be because of a major philosophical change in the Rams organization. Williams has averaged 19.4 rush attempts and 87.3 rushing yards per game since the start of 2023. He has scored 26 touchdowns in 28 games in that stretch. Blake Corum and/or Jarquez Hunter would have to put a big dent in Williams’ workload for him to miss these marks. He has more room for error on beating the yardage prop than the touchdown prop, but barring injury, I expect him to smash both.
Games needed to hit both Overs at my per game projection: 13.5
Rushing Projection: 1,398
Rushing Prop: 1075.5
Rushing TD Projection: 10.5
Rushing TD Prop: 7.5
I guess some see more reason to be cautious with a rookie running back than I do. But we are talking about the 6th overall pick in a Chip Kelly offense who just ran for 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns in his final season at Boise State. They may start the year trying to divvy up touches, but there is no running back on this roster in the same stratosphere as Jeanty in terms of talent. Expect 20 touches per game and one of the most exciting running backs in the league almost immediately.
Games needed to hit both Overs at my per game projection: 13.5
Here are the other three running backs who have a rushing projection much higher than their season-long prop:
Rushing Projection: 1,200
Rushing Prop: 875.5
I know this one seems a little outlandish at first. Swift has never topped 1,049 yards rushing in a season. He only ran for 959 last year on this same team. But the additions of Ben Johnson, Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, and Drew Dalman have me very optimistic about increased efficiency for Swift this season. And the fact that the only running back addition was seventh-round pick Kyle Monangai makes me feel really good about Swift’s role in the running game. If it all comes together, Swift could be the best running back pick at ADP this season. If he is just who he has been in the past, he is still worth his current cost.
Games needed to hit yardage, Over at my per game projection: 13
Rushing Projection: 1,655
Rushing Prop: 1325.5
I understand if you are worried about Henry’s age. I don’t rank him as high as I project him. But he has played at least 16 games in four of his last five seasons. He just ran for 1,921 yards last year. The age discount in this prop is simply too steep. His rushing projection is the second-highest in my projections.
Games needed to hit yardage, Over at my per game projection: 14
Rushing Projection: 1,768
Rushing Prop: 1,400.5
Henry has the second-highest rushing projection because Barkley has the highest. How could he not when he returns to the same situation where he ran for 2,005 yards in 16 games? You have likely heard plenty about his total touches from last year, 482, including the playoffs, and the drop-off that often leads to. I am projecting Barkley for a 17% decline in rushing yards per game. His prop is set at a 30% decline in rushing yards for the season. Unless he gets hurt and misses three-plus games, I can’t imagine him falling off that much.
Games needed to hit yardage Over at my per game projection: 13.5
And here are the running backs with a much higher Rush TD projection than their season-long prop:
Rush TD Projection: 10.2
Rush TD Prop: 7.5
McCaffrey has scored 20 rushing touchdowns in 34 career games with the 49ers. While he did miss most of last year, he also played 33 games in the two prior years combined. This is one of the biggest swings you can make in the first two rounds. If McCaffrey stays healthy, he has a very good chance to win someone a league. If you draft him in Round 1 and he gets hurt again, your season may be over. Fortune favors the bold, but I would rather wait to take him at the 1-2 turn in most formats.
Games needed to hit TD Over at my per game projection: 13.5
Rush TD Projection: 9.8
Rush TD Prop: 6.5
This is another weird one. Walker has at least seven rush touchdowns every year of his career, despite the fact that he has never played more than 15 games in a season. New offensive coordinator should increase both the quality and the quantity of the running back rush attempts. It is always dangerous when you feel like you have found an easy click in the prop market, but Walker would have to have the worst touchdown performance of his career to miss this mark. Don’t be surprised if this number moves as we get closer to the start of the season.
Games needed to hit TD Over at my per game projection: 12.5