Why the Patriots will win the Super Bowl
Because Drake Maye is incredible, and when you pair that with good coaching, you get a team that can beat anyone. Maye is one of two candidates for the MVP, and it’s easy to see why. He finished first in EPA/dropback, second in dropback success rate, and the Patriots offense was fourth in series conversion rate (the percentage of times a team turns a first down into another first down or touchdown). That’s an elite offense, and yes, they played a cupcake schedule — only three games against playoff teams, including the Steelers — but nobody has really slowed them down. As for the coaching aspect, we saw Mike Vrabel win a ton of games in Tennessee with lesser quarterback talent than Maye. Vrabel knows how to coach, and pairing him with an elite quarterback is a recipe for a Super Bowl.
An elite coach and QB in New England? Man, that sounds familiar.
Why they won’t
Because I’m not sure if the defense is good. Average? Most likely. But it’s a weakness for a team that needs to win four games to win the Super Bowl. The Patriots’ defense finished near the top 10 in almost every major category, but it plummeted to 18th in success rate. Now, a caveat is that the rush defense really struggled when defensive tackle Milton Williams went down with an injury. He’s back, and that’s a big boost as their defensive success rate dropped to 26th with him off the field this year versus 17th with him on it, according to FTN Data. Still, this is not a defense that will put fear into its opponents, and no matter how many points you score, if you can’t get stops, you aren’t going to win the Super Bowl.