A quick victory lap is deserved after a successful wild-card weekend in which this early NFL bets column went 2-0 and continued what has been a great season.
The concept of betting early is to get ahead of the market moves, go into kickoff with a bet slip with closing line value, rely on NFL markets being very efficient and then hit the counter to claim our winnings. That was on perfect display this past weekend, as we liked the 49ers-Eagles under 45 (-110) last Tuesday, and the line closed at 44.5 (-120 to the under). It came down to the Eagles offense not scoring on their final drive. The market was spot on, the bet was directionally correct and the ticket cashed.
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Let’s apply the same tricks to the divisional round and find some spots to bet early this week. We only have four games coming this weekend; remind yourself that these markets are quite sharp already with so much 2025-26 data and injury reports known. I don’t expect any drastic moves, but placing a bet that gets a little bit ahead will be money well positioned in a pending wager. The bets this week might even look similar to those placed last week.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
A week after the Bills took down the No. 1 rush defense in the NFL on the road, they travel to Denver to face the Broncos’ second-ranked rush defense. For a Buffalo team that lacks weapons at wide receiver, it’s been a daunting matchup-based playoff schedule for the Bills. But that is nothing Josh Allen and Co. can’t overcome.
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Allen’s dual-threat ability really helps exploit Denver’s pass-rushing and run-stopping strengths. The Broncos’ Nik Bonitto led the team with 14.0 sacks this season, while Jonathan Cooper also added 8.0, but Allen can step up, escape the pocket and avoid these edge rusher sacks that get opposing offenses into late down-and-distance situations.
The Bills don’t have a clear go-to wide receiver, so reigning defensive player of the year Patrick Surtain and his ability to shadow a skill position player and remove them from the game script is mitigated. Instead, the Bills use two- or sometimes even three-tight end sets and disguise explosive plays with play-action looks. James Cook also led the NFL in rushing with over 1,600 yards. No matter how good Denver’s rush defense has been, Cook is still a weapon.
On offense, I don’t think the Broncos have the run game needed to gash Buffalo’s porous rush defense. Bo Nix is very good because he limits his mistakes with few turnovers and few sacks taken, but the Bills’ secondary and coverage is their strong suit and works perfectly against a Nix style offense.
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When pricing this game in the betting market, it was very notable that the Bills opened as road favorites. Even a few sportsbooks that priced the Bills at 1.5-point underdogs saw line movement that repriced the Bills as the expected winner. This is a repeat matchup of a playoff contest one year ago where the Bills dominated 31-7. While I expect a closer game, the football reasons and early betting signals show Buffalo to be the side to take here.
For the second week in a row, take the Bills to win.
Bet: Buffalo Bills ML (-110)
These sportsbooks are showing signs of there being little-to-no hope for the 49ers. While my best bet here is on the total, it’s worth noting that last week there was heavy sharp money on the Eagles to beat the 49ers. We saw the spread move from Eagles -3 to as much as -6, before settling back at -5.5 at kickoff. While the 49ers would go on to win, I always advocate that the market movements throughout a week tell a much bigger and more important story to successful sports betting than the 60 minutes of game action.
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Compounding the action against the 49ers in the wild-card round, paired with the Seahawks opening as 7.5-point favorites the next week, speaks volumes to how I think this game will play out.
For me, this means hedging my futures ticket on the 49ers to win the Super Bowl. I think hedging is for gardeners not bettors, but situationally it should be explored and the market signaling combined with more injuries for the 49ers means it’s simply time to adjust. If you have a futures ticket on San Fran, hedge — and if you find yourself with a Seattle future, don’t do anything and continue to ride awesome value.
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For the best bet in this single game, it has to be the under. The 49ers losing TE George Kittle to a torn Achilles is a massive blow to both their run and pass game. Kittle is a phenomenal blocker, a dangerous weapon in the pass game, and combining the two is an integral part of San Francisco’s play-action game. After losing Kittle, we saw the 49ers deploy a trick play to generate explosiveness and scoring.
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On the other end, the Seahawks offense with Sam Darnold has been turnover prone and lacked efficiency in the later part of the season. Darnold led the NFL with 20 turnovers, (14 INTs and six fumbles) and he has more turnovers than touchdowns since Week 11. Despite the 49ers defense also having a plethora of injuries, they play shell coverage to limit explosive plays and have their defenders all rush to the ball on runs and short pass plays.
Since this is the third meeting between these two teams this season, the coaching staffs have already studied the tapes twice, the players have already prepared for the opponent tendencies and the edge in repeat matchups favors the under.
The market has already signaled an under direction early in the week as well. An open at 46.5 has dropped to 45.5, but similarly to the Eagles and 49ers last week, I think this has another point to go and likely closes around 44.5. Play the under now and try and front the incoming line movement.
Bet: Under 45.5 (-110)